The Weather Outlook

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doctormog
08 July 2024 14:13:21

Soak it up, DrM - we are having our windows painted - keep it there! 😁

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 

That’ll be the second warning in 3-4 days here for heavy rainfall. You can tell the school holidays have started. 🤣


cultman1
08 July 2024 14:19:55
London is in for a 12 hour rain fest from 8pm if the Met Office app is to be believed then by the weekend once again cool temperatures creeping back in really beginning to feel like at least the first 2/3 of summer is going to be poor especially with the jet stream far south 
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
08 July 2024 14:52:00

London is in for a 12 hour rain fest from 8pm if the Met Office app is to be believed then by the weekend once again cool temperatures creeping back in really beginning to feel like at least the first 2/3 of summer is going to be poor especially with the jet stream far south 

Originally Posted by: cultman1 

I've been watching the rain slowly edging north since I got up. Painfully slow progress, so when the heavier stuff arrives, I assume this is why they have given this warning because it will takes ages to pass by. A dire/dour day here in south Dorset. Anyone on holiday under a tent will be able to enjoy the pitter patter of raindrops tonight.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Jiries
08 July 2024 18:11:32

London is in for a 12 hour rain fest from 8pm if the Met Office app is to be believed then by the weekend once again cool temperatures creeping back in really beginning to feel like at least the first 2/3 of summer is going to be poor especially with the jet stream far south 

Originally Posted by: cultman1 

i notice London got a fair cop of rain and cold temperatures than in the Midlands last few days which so far escaped the wetness but not hte coldness and some shallow grass areas started to parched which I did not expected it under this unsettled cold summer pattern so it must had been so dry lately.

Cloudy now here but was pleasant warmer and sunnier earlier on until early afternoon.

Ally Pally Snowman
08 July 2024 18:15:58
SE Europe continues to boil which often means poor summer weather here. AAM looks like rising soon though should help push the Azores HP our way, that's the the theory anyway.  A straw.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
cultman1
08 July 2024 19:07:48
I really have a feeling of dread for our summer weather at least in the short to medium term. The rain has settled in now at 7.30pm  for what looks like 9-10 hours of non stop bursts . I really dont see any change in this pattern anytime soon. Someone please prove me wrong...
Ally Pally Snowman
08 July 2024 19:13:25
Basically you want it to be rising above neutral as this can often push the Azores toward the UK. It's not an exact science but it's desperate times.

Latest aam chart below.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://atlas.niu.edu/gwo/&ved=2ahUKEwjd_56jk5iHAxW-QUEAHYoOAzEQFnoECBgQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2U7YJ-9hFypzGYGu2J6rIv 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
moomin75
08 July 2024 19:54:36

I really have a feeling of dread for our summer weather at least in the short to medium term. The rain has settled in now at 7.30pm  for what looks like 9-10 hours of non stop bursts . I really dont see any change in this pattern anytime soon. Someone please prove me wrong...

Originally Posted by: cultman1 

Afraid you may be right. The summer pattern appears well and truly set in now, and I think we can safely write off the next few weeks.

Maybe August can save summer, but this has been another abysmal one so far, as bad as last summer!


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Jiries
08 July 2024 20:46:34

Afraid you may be right. The summer pattern appears well and truly set in now, and I think we can safely write off the next few weeks.

Maybe August can save summer, but this has been another abysmal one so far, as bad as last summer!

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

August no use to me as daylight getting shorter and knowing that Autumn is near but already having this non-stop.  I still can see September will be the best month.  Like I said before the aveage for summer will plunge down further with September the warmest month of the year. How it like now from Jan to Dec: 9, 10, 11, 12, 14. 16, 18, 19, 20C, !7C, 14C 11C.  Sept the warmest month.   Very boring and can't see a return to weather recording data if this going to be like that so rack off modern UK climate.   AC units was desire needs during the warming 1990's summers and early 2000's now not possible.

Quantum
09 July 2024 08:09:47
This has been an amazing summer, running has actually been comfortable! Don't like the rain but there hasn't been that much. Ideal day is mid to high teens, and cloud blocking the sun so its not dazzling.


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

briggsy6
09 July 2024 10:25:57
Have to laugh when I read through the Huff Post every day telling us when a heatwave is due to reach UK shores. Talk about hopecasting! The law of averages says they must be right eventually.
Location: Uxbridge
Jiries
09 July 2024 11:32:00

Have to laugh when I read through the Huff Post every day telling us when a heatwave is due to reach UK shores. Talk about hopecasting! The law of averages says they must be right eventually.

Originally Posted by: briggsy6 

Did not see a heatwave that come with full sunny days this year so can’t see any this summer but perhaps in September which will be 1 year since then.  Heatwave for every country in NH but not the UK at all.

Bolty
09 July 2024 11:38:17
After a day of half decent weather yesterday, it's normal service resumes today with rain, drizzle and mid-teen temperatures. This is turning into a right sh1t summer this.
Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

cultman1
09 July 2024 14:01:03
... and it looks like carrying on in the same vein for the foreseeable possibly next week with less rainy spells . 
briggsy6
09 July 2024 16:27:31
September is often an extension of summer (down South at least) so I agree that might turn out to be our warmest and most settled month this year.
Location: Uxbridge
johncs2016
09 July 2024 16:38:24
There are a couple of things which strike me here.

First of all, the fact that we're having such a poor summer would be perfectly understandable if there were a quick transition from El Nino to La Nina in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean because that is something which is thought to favour a poor summer as was the case in 2012.

However, the developing La Nina appears to have stalled, leaving us stuck on ENSO neutral for now and when that happens, or when there is only a very slow transition to La Nina from El Nino, that is thought to favour a decent summer overall as highlighted in Gavin P.'s excellent summer update videos not all that long ago.

In addition to that, we have a positive NAO at the moment which is backed up by a positive AO which at this of the year, would be expected to favour a decent summer as a result of a stronger Azores High building in towards the UK.

All in all, this shows that there are actually quite a few factors in place which would be expected to favour a decent summer and yet not one of those have been of any help to us whatsoever up until now which for me, is the most frustrating aspect of this summer up until now.

I guess this is probably the summer equivalent of what has happened in our most recent winters in which we have had two easterly QBO winters in the last three years, only for neither of those easterly QBOs to be of any help to us whatsoever in terms of us actually getting a cold winter out of any of that.

In winter, we would typically be looking at a major SSW event to shake things up whereas what is needed now at this time of year is for an ex-hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean to shake things up by taking a track to our west and north over the Atlantic in such a way that it then promotes the building of high pressure either over the UK or just to our east.

That to me, is probably our only route now to any decent summer weather. At the moment though, I can't see any signs of that happening any time soon.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Brian Gaze
10 July 2024 17:24:32
This adds some perspective.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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doctormog
10 July 2024 17:33:54
What a vile day it has been here. Cold, wet and windy. 

It’s even worse further north with over 72 mm of rain at Forehill WS near Peterhead and reports of flooding. The A90 further north is currently closed.


richardabdn
10 July 2024 19:23:24
The living hell just goes on and on. Not even half way through and yet again the whole monthly average has been smashed. A ludicrous 84mm with drizzly depressing crap persisting along with subarctic temperatures of 10.8C. Need heating on and there's been barely more than a few days at a time when it's been kept off in this stinking year of filth like no other within living memory.

Only six other months in my 19-years of records have got off to such a horrifically wet start and three of those have been during this past two years of near relentless poison and all were autumn/winter (Jan 2016, Dec 2023, Oct 2014, Oct 2020, Sept 2022, Oct 2023).

Came close to having four consecutive days with 10mm for only the second time (after last December) but Monday fell short at 9.8mm. 

Sunshine of 28.7 hours lower than any other first third of July apart from 2012 but even that was nowhere near as wet with only 32mm. Only 2015 came anywhere near as close on rainfall but that was partly down to a thunderstorm and sunshine levels were near average. 

All of the past three Novembers had sunnier first thirds while 2020 had exactly the same total so the last time November began with less sunshine was in 2019 and none of those Novembers were sunny. Just average/below average levels of sun.

You couldn't make this crap up. It was beyond ludicrous a long time ago and new depths keep being plumbed. This month is truly the worst yet. Can't even get the odd scrap of good weather that everywhere else is seeing. Just a constant stream of vile rubbish putting it well on course to rival July 1957 as the wettest/dullest on record. 


Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything

2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November

2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits

2025 - The Weekend Curse hell intensifies

Chunky Pea
10 July 2024 19:30:07

The living hell just goes on and on. Not even half way through and yet again the whole monthly average has been smashed. A ludicrous 84mm with drizzly depressing crap persisting along with subarctic temperatures of 10.8C. 

Originally Posted by: richardabdn 

Extraordinary rain stat there Richard. Here in the traditionally wetter west of Ireland Ive only recorded 11.2mm so far this month, which is well below even the July 1st -10th average. Grant it, it looks like it raining most of the time but it has been very dry here. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

johncs2016
10 July 2024 19:40:28

What a vile day it has been here. Cold, wet and windy. 

[font=system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"]It’s even worse further north with over 72 mm of rain at Forehill WS near Peterhead and reports of flooding. The A90 further north is currently closed.[/font]

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I also heard that a pre-season friendly match which Aberdeen FC were due to play in tonight was cancelled because of the weather.

That is something which typically happens in the winter months, but not at this time of the year in what is supposed to be high summer and so, this just shows how bad the weather actually is in many parts of the country just now.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

andy-manc
10 July 2024 21:21:26
A couple of years ago, we were pushing towards 40C, this year we are struggling past 20C. Not sure we have even surpassed 25C here. Maybe once or twice last month. I don't think I've ever known it so mediocre and time is ticking away. I always feel a change from mid August towards autumn, up here at least. It's very depressing.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
11 July 2024 05:35:41

This adds some perspective.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

And from memory, those of us who were around in the 50s would say that summers were no better then than in the 60s and 70s..

Now you realise why foreign holidays became the thing as soon as cheap air transport became available.


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Jiries
11 July 2024 06:00:59

And from memory, those of us who were around in the 50s would say that summers were no better then than in the 60s and 70s..

Now you realise why foreign holidays became the thing as soon as cheap air transport became available.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

That time we had decent winters and more variety to keep us interested but all gone now. 

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
11 July 2024 06:11:01

And from memory, those of us who were around in the 50s would say that summers were no better then than in the 60s and 70s..

Now you realise why foreign holidays became the thing as soon as cheap air transport became available.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

True David, though, I was still a fragment of DNA in the fifties and yet to meet the egg.

For anyone who wants a feel of the Seventies, try looking at almost any of the Giles cartoons that capture the dire feel of weather back then. Winters were snowy, summers washouts, and the rest as bad as those two mentioned. Bleak.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

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