Starting off waterlogged from March to early June, then cool, then cold, a short warm blip and now cool again. Not to mention the dullest spring in decades hampering already dire chances of crop germination. 

Heat haters might have to pay more for their bread, veg & cereal like the rest of us. 

Not all bad news - especially if you like potatoes 

https://www.vinehousefarm.co.uk/newsletter-193-june 

GFS Op - current LP moving to Norway and filling but leaving light N-lies until Mon 8th. New LP developing off to the SW Wed 10th and bringing in warmer air. The LP moves up the Channel 1010mb Fri 12th and to the northern N Sea 1000mb Mon 15th while HP follows up from the SW and lies over N France Sat 20th with light W-lies for Britain.

ECM - some resemblance to GFS but pressure higher over Britain Wed 10th before LP moves in, and that LP is weaker when it does arrive. But the sequence ends with a trough from the NW Sun 14th.

GEM - like GFS but throws in a shallow extra LP over England Wed 10th

GEFS - cool to start with (pulse of warmth in the S on Sun 7th), then close to norm from Wed 10th (in the S marginally warmer at first and then again later from Wed 17th). Small amounts of rain, mostly around Sat 6th and Sat 13th in S, 7th and 10th in NE, less agreement in NW but several runs albeit a minority, predicting a few days with heavier falls 10th - 13th. 

Certainly very unsual in the context of the majority of summers in the last 20 years or so. Even most summers in recent times which were unsettled for the most part were not especially cool for much of the time, save for the likes of 2015 which was below average for overall temperature.

Well for the south they look OK. The GEFS ensemble mean 850mb temperature is above average from the 9th right out to the end of the run apart from about 6 hours on the 18th. Not much sign of a heatwave but 10C at 850mb is very usable. A notable dropoff in ppn spikes towards the end of the run too.

I still have a gut feeling that the second half of July is going to turn out rather warm or even hot. There's an awful lot of heat building up down there.

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2024070406/gfs-0-168.png?6 

Unusual fir nowadays but summers in past decades like the 60s and early 70s were frequently cool but not necessarily wet 

Looks like you spoke too soon. Lashing down here and cold this morning like a typical November morning. 

Sunshine and showers forecast for next week - that sounds like good growing weather. One day of rain doesn't make a disaster, and here, given that there's been no measurable rain for a fortnight, perhaps quite useful.

GFS Op - LP currently near NE Scotland moving to N Norway by Mon but leaving a legacy of light N-ly winds. New LP developing to SW and moving to SE England 1015mb Wed 10th. Then a tendency for a (rather tenuous) ridge of HP to set up SW=NE across N Britain. That's a a 'glass half full' view - pessimists will pint out that LP is never far away over the low countries and that that there is another trough affecting mostly Scotland Tue 16th.

ECM - similar to GFS until Sun 14th when the ridge of HP is further S; less emphasis on LP in the low countries but LP 990 mb over the Faeroes Mon 15th corresponding to the weaker trough in GFS on 16th.

GEM - somewhere between GFS and ECM

GEFS - cool to Wed 10th, then near or just below norm for a week or so when some slight warming, all with good ens agreement, Rain most likely now, around 10th and less certainly the 13th (but more continual in NI and in NW Scotland) - significant but not enormous amounts.

Calm and sunny here today.  Corn won’t be harvested for a few days yet and it can sit for a while, so no disaster yet. A few dry days later in the month is what we want. 

So I'm far from convinced. 

I still feel like this will be a "back-loaded" summer, with some serious heat to come in late July or August, as soon as pressure is allowed to drop to our north.

eg look at P7 on the 6Z GEFS. GEM could also go that way.

Peppers, tomatoes, courgettes, corn and aubergines; any summer flowering fruits that need insects in abundance at this time. 

I don't think they need heatwaves, but strong winds, cold HPs and cloudy days reducing the light might make a difference.

Blowing a hooly out there this morning. I’d be surprised if my flower bed dwelling tomatoes are still in one piece by last lunchtime. 

GFS Op - cool N-lies continue to Monday, then a shallow area of LP develops to the SW and deepens 1005mb Wales Wed 10th. This moves off E-wards as HP very gradually moves in from the west, finally well established 1030mb Wed 17th and persisting centred over S Scotland to Tue 23rd.

FAX charts show the LP  much deeper, 995mb while still well out in the Atlantic, but only run through to Tue 9th

ECM - similar to GFS but the HP keeps moving and is 1025mb Norway Tue 16th with a major ridge stretching back to cover Britain.

GEM - similar to GFS but from Sat 13th the SE is more affected by LP over France and the Low Countries.

GEFS - some rain at first esp near Wed 10th and then most notably in Scotland, decreasing thereafter. Temps cool until Mon 15th (one warm day Wed 10th)  then reaching norm and  steadily warmer after that in most ens members, some in N cooler. 

I think we need the summer equivalent of the winter of 1947!

GFS Op - the current N-lies die away to be replaced by shallow low pressure crossing Britain 1010mb Wed 10th (a little further N than shown yesterday) being replaced by a weak ridge of HP toppling in from the NW to be in place for Sat 13th. For the following week, three successive LPs from the Atlantic swinging troughs across Britain Mon 15th, Thu 18th and Sun 21st, definitely a downgrade from yesterday when HP was forecast centred over Britain at that time. The first two get deflected NE-wards by HP near E Germany, the third keeps going into Europe.

ECM - at this time, the 00z is available to Sat 13th and agrees with GFS. After that yesterday's 12z keeps the weekend HP in place through to Tue 16th. [sorry, can't wait for 00z to download - see below]

GEM - keeps the HP indicated by GFS from Sat 13th through to Tue 16th but then agrees on a trough from the Atlantic to follow

GEFS - rain and temps recovering to a little above norm Wed 10th; then cool for a few days before becoming drier, particularly in the S, and warmer from about Tue 16th. Despite good ens agreement, this does not match WX & GFS above. 

I'm away for this week but should be in range of free wifi so reviews will continue, perhaps at odd times.

Looks like yesterday's optimism has been blown out of the water.