GFS Op - HP near the SW retreating back to the Atlantic while LP passes by NE Scotland to finish up 995mb Norway Sun 7th, with increasingly cool NW then N-ly winds and looking unsettled in the N. LP off the W coast of Ireland 1000mb Tue 9th reverses the wind direction, so warmer, but drifts N-wards past N Scotland before HP settles over Britain Fri 12th. This only lasts for the weekend before LP 1010mb from France then a re-load of the LP off Ireland.

ECM - similar to GFS at first but LP W of Ireland persists and moves close to Kerry Fri 12th; no sign of HP at that date closer than Finland.

GEM - quite close to GFS

GEFS - mostly cool to Tue 9th, then near or just above norm despite WX suggesting better for the S. Generally modest amounts of rain at any time and a few ens members with heavier falls, no clear pattern. Drier in the S than the N

Well it didn't take long for the downgrades to appear. It's looking average at best now. Hard to see Summer turning around anytime soon. Getting HP to hang around the UK seemingly impossible atm. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1 

[color=var(--bs-body-color)][font=system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"]The Met Office Contingency Planners 3 month forecast is out now for July to September. [/font][/color]

In recent years, September has felt like a summer month, at least for more southern parts.They are quite bullish that above average temperatures will prevail with rainfall and wind near average.  We shall see! 

Full details here;

[color=var(--bs-body-color)]https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook_jas_v2.pdf[/color]

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html 

Ensembles increasingly show us heading similar to this time last month, just scraping 20c at best daytime maxes. 

As others have said September often delivers an Indian summer the last decade or so. Summer holidays approaching soon so you can place your bets on the monsoon arrival in about 2-3 weeks time. 

WX charts this morning a definite step back for warmth lovers compared to yesterday. For week 1 nearly all of W Europe N of the Alps is a couple of degrees below the seasonal norm, and instead of warming up in week 2 as previously forecast, anything west of the Baltic gets cooler. Most of Britain and much of France below the 14C isotherm; for heat wave conditions go to Ukraine. Rain well distributed across N Europe in week 1, becoming concentrated over Britain - Denmark - Germany week 2.

GFS Op - LP sliding past NE Scotland on its way to Norway bringing in cold air form the NW which persists until Mon 8th. Then a modest improvement but only because trough of LP deepens and is 1005mb England Thu 11th, moving to Norway Mon 15th and followed by another cooler one 1005mb Scotland Wed 17th, also drifting E-wards with NW-ly behind it.

ECM - not significantly different from GFS

GEM - also similar to above, though a more southerly approach for the LP Mon 8th promises something a little warmer.

GFES - bar a brief up-and-down in the S, cool to Thu 11th and then staying a little below norm for the foreseeable, with good ens agreement. Rain most likely around Sun 7th and Wed 10th, but modest amounts at any time, chance of drier later.

Yes, this looks very much  like the summer equivalent of that all too common scenario which we face just about every winter when we're looking for an SSW event to break a mild pattern which we are stuck in at that time.

I notice they are rudely happy to keep the temperatures downgraded to mid to high teens for first half of July the app was showing average 23C by this weekend to well below average 17-19C.    Honestly I gave up with this year anyway, any recovering is no point as daylight is declining now.  Was very sad to see how all countries including Finland arctic circle regions aving a good summer and only the UK is the coldest place in N Hemisphere.  

Yeah, I have seen those ex-hurricanes doing us a favour in the past. That said, I think that is something of a double-edged sword as they can work against us as well in terms of getting warm and settled weather.

It seems that May was our summer this year, at least in terms of how things have panned out thus far.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=aifs&var=1&run=0&time=336&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

2022 was a very hot summer followed here at least with the coldest snowiest December  for over a decade. More of that please. 

I would also like to be seeing a succession of below average months, possibly even with some cold temperature records to balance out those all too common high temperature records at least by a little bit.

In my books though, I would still much rather be seeing that in the winter (because that is what would give us a cold winter) rather than right now in the summer which should be our warmest time of the year (this is therefore the worst possible time for that to happen in my books).😡

You should know very well it doens't work as today temperatures are expecting the same in winter months.  Thought you won't get suckered since that UK climate are complete idiot now, we get same temperatures all year around with only September the warmest month of the year.  It a lot warmer in the Arctic circle than here but they will get colder winters no problem but not here won't and will not happen.

On a different note, why is the 250mb jet dipping so persistently over NW Europe? Is this ENSO related or to do with the NAO, or sluggish NA drift/current? It's irritating. I know there are plenty who would welcome a break from persistent hot weather, but this is beyond a joke. The temperatures forecast could mean trouble for some summer crops if they persist.

I don't know why the jet is further south than normal, but long may it continue. I said before that I'd love to see how much whinging would occur if we were to get a below-average summer - though I still expect it to end up above average (we can't be jammy all summer long, and the NH is warmer than it's ever been in recent decades).

Bear in mind, too, that having an overall below-average (91-20) summer should happen every other year on average... when the last one was in 2015, 9 years ago. Those of us who aren't heat-hounds are well, well overdue a colder-than-average summer.

And no, summer crops will be just fine, as they were in the much cooler 61-90 period. The stray barley I have in my garden is ripening up nicely!

EDIT: It's interesting to see that southerly-tracking jet, of course. It persisted through most of the winter, too, but sod's law... we just couldn't get hold of any deep cold air to take advantage of it.

Don't know what is causing the southward but could be a response to the 'straightline jet' that has been running through north America over the last number of weeks. 

Even in this relatively cool summer so far though, never is it actually 'cool' in the felt sense of the word. 14c here at the with a good stiff breeze and it feels wonderful out. 

Yes , nice to have some average or below average temps for a change. Actually pleasant to work through the day without being blinded by sweat and knackered by the evening. You are correct about Barley growing well in cooler conditions and some of the finest Malting barley comes from Eastern Scotland where temps are cooler. I think maybe " Bertwhistle" was referring to other crops although i dont know which as everything is ripening round here.

Can just about remember autumn 1993, we haven't had a truly cool one since and statistically it is the season which seems to forever be warming with all 3 months seeing a very drastic shift in what is considered normal even in my few decades on this planet .

Cool summers are a bit of a disappointment always , especially as nowadays they almost always come with a side order of dull and wet , so would prefer the cool patterns to hold off a bit for July and August ideally.

We did have a run of cool summers between 2007 and 2012 (2009/10 being more warm /normal )