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Brian Gaze
27 June 2024 17:51:19
New thread....
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
DEW
  • DEW
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28 June 2024 07:13:14
GFS Op - current LP over Scotland soon moving away northwards leaving a spell of W-lies - no heatwave but 'useable' weather. The next LP arrives 975mb Cape Wrath Thu 4th, gales for Scotland but little effect on S England. Back to W-lies for the weekend, then a repeat with LP 995mb Cape Wrath Mon 8th  followed once more by W-lies; then another trough for the NW Fri 12th but this time dipping S-ward to become thundery over France while pressure and temps rise further north.
/
ECM - like GFS though final chart for Mon 8th shows a much broader but shallow trough extending S-wards
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GEM -like GFS, if anything the 'Scottish' LPs manage to project associated troughs further south
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GEFS - temps a little on the cool side for about the first 10 days of July , then a little warmer. Small amounts of rain at any time, a few runs have heavier falls in the N & W later on.
/
WX average temp charts for Europe still U/S
/
A nostalgic British summer for those of us who were around before the modern fashion for heatwaves😊

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
28 June 2024 07:16:22
Latest ECM AI AIFS model has a heatwave developing day 10. Outside bet atm but worth keeping an eye on.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ozone_aurora
28 June 2024 07:16:54
Thanks Dew, as always. 
Looks like some bug in the message, as links. Maybe its supposed to show graphics.
ozone_aurora
28 June 2024 07:18:01
Looks like there are bugs in the messages now. 
DEW
  • DEW
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28 June 2024 07:19:20
Indeed - not sure how the bug intruded but now eliminated by re-typing the offending section
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Brian Gaze
28 June 2024 07:45:03

Thanks Dew, as always. Looks like some bug in the message, as links. Maybe its supposed to show graphics.

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 


Either:

1) Paste in as plain text (or paste without formatting on some browser)
2) After pasting in use the remove formatting button
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Ally Pally Snowman
28 June 2024 08:33:21

Latest ECM AI AIFS model has a heatwave developing day 10. Outside bet atm but worth keeping an eye on.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Latest update less good. Hopefully it brings it back later.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
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29 June 2024 06:11:37
Posting early today as I'm going out. ECM is mostly yesterday's 12z, but WX temps charts are back.
WX temp charts showing heat piling up over E Baltic and staying there, while Britain and down into N France is cool, esp in week 1, and the Norwegian coast even cooler. Rain fairly general over Europe in week 1, slightly drier near SW Britain and around the Black Sea; in week 2 the main area of rain is from the Alps up to the Baltic, with an extension to SE England.

GFS Op - current LP near N Scotland never really clears away though to start the week HP approaches the SW with zonal W-lies. The LP digs in and by Fri 5th forms a trough extending well south over Britain. This comes and goes but ends up with LP 995mb Hebrides Mon 8th. Although this moves away to the NE, there is a new shallow LP 1010mb Fri 12th N Ireland which persists.

ECM 12z - very much like GFS

GEM - also like GFS but LP Mon 8th is further N, near Faeroes

GEFS - after a warmish few days , cool through to about Wed 10th, then warming slightly with fairly good agreement between ens members. Rain in several runs for the second week of July in the S, starting a few days earlier in the N, but no dramatic amounts. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
29 June 2024 06:59:55
Underwhelming output continues not terrible but not what you'd call good for peak summer.  
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
29 June 2024 08:40:49

Underwhelming output continues not terrible but not what you'd call good for peak summer.  

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


All very mobile, isn't it?

As you say, it won't be all terrible; there'll be plenty of dry and sunny days. Just likely to be in ones/twos/threes rather than prolonged settled spells.

And, as is the way with these types of set ups, the further SE, the better weather. Down there, some lows/fronts might not even reach, leading to several consecutive dry days. Whereas NW Scotland is at the other end of the scale.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Ally Pally Snowman
29 June 2024 11:15:40
Very hot ending on the GFS 6z.  46c in France and 50c for Spain.


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=18&model=gfs&var=17&run=6&time=369&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
29 June 2024 14:43:49

Wow, 34C at 850mb in Spain! That can't be far off record-breaking territory? 50C would certainly be a new 2m record for Europe.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Bertwhistle
29 June 2024 14:48:40

Wow, 34C at 850mb in Spain! That can't be far off record-breaking territory? 50C would certainly be a new 2m record for Europe.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I think those 50C 2m temps would be records too!
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Ally Pally Snowman
29 June 2024 17:22:44
This afternoons GEM is an eyebrow raiser,  HP builds in nicely day 6 and by day 10 we are in heatwave territory.  Unlike anything I've seen recently hopefully it's onto something. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
30 June 2024 07:06:07
Sadly yesterday's GEM seems a mirage.  This mornings output unrelentingly grim. Cool unsettled. Still hints of a warm up about the 10th but don't hold your breath. Back to 60s Summer.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
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30 June 2024 07:53:53
WX temp charts - week 1 as yesterday with a cool push south over Britain and the Low Countries, with compensating heat moving north over the E Baltic. This starts to reverse in week 2, comfortably warm from the Channel to the Baltic, still rather cool in N Scotland and N Scandinavia. Some rain in many places in Europe both weeks, driest in SW Britain week 1, in the Gulf of Bothnia week 2.

GFS Op - this week, HP to the SW and LP to the N/NE of Britain (closest on Thu when over Orkney) with mostly NW-ly winds. Shallow LP 1000mb in this circulation runs up the Channel Sun 7th, before HP revives, this time settling over the N Sea which combined with depression 1000mb W of Ireland is bringing in warm S/SE-lies by Thu 11th. The LP edges closer and by Tue 16th appears as a trough across C Britain.

ECM - not unlike GFS but manages to include two LPs in the circulation, 995mb N England Sat 6th as well as one in the Channel Tue 9th before the HP gets to the N Sea.

GEM - just the one LP as for GFS but over N England.

GEFS - mostly on the cool side to about Wed 10th, then on the warm side but nothing dramatic. Rain in small amounts for the S from Sat  6th, but from the outset in N Scotland (only one or two runs with heavier falls in the S, several such in W Scotland but not universally so) 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Rob K
30 June 2024 10:18:23

Sadly yesterday's GEM seems a mirage.  This mornings output unrelentingly grim. Cool unsettled. Still hints of a warm up about the 10th but don't hold your breath. Back to 60s Summer.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


For the south it really doesn't look that bad.  A bit of drizzle overnight which was the first rain for two weeks here (since June 16th). Yesterday hit 24C. 21-22C likely today in any bright spells. The next week looks maybe a degree or two below average but largely dry and useable, then signs of more warmth as you say in 10 days time.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
30 June 2024 12:37:26

For the south it really doesn't look that bad.  A bit of drizzle overnight which was the first rain for two weeks here (since June 16th). Yesterday hit 24C. 21-22C likely today in any bright spells. The next week looks maybe a degree or two below average but largely dry and useable, then signs of more warmth as you say in 10 days time.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I think this week will feel ok if the sunshines if it's cloudy it will be poor. Does look dry though for the South. Wet for the NW.

A better GEFS 6z. P12 a furnace run upto 39c.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Chunky Pea
30 June 2024 16:28:41
Hints of plume potential on the EC at day 10 onwards. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
01 July 2024 07:02:42
WX temp charts much as yesterday; quite cool through Britain and into E France/Germany for week 1 though Baltic area already cooler; in week 2 a more E-W trend in isobars, S Britain becoming warm along with Germany, still cool in Scotland and Norway.

GFS Op - HP to the S or SW and LP to the N or NE for this week, with winds from a cool NW or N direction. New LP moving towards Ireland Mon 8th breaks this pattern with warmer air from the S which doesn't get to the far N immediately while shallow LP spreads over Britain, perhaps linking with (thundery?) continental LP by Sat 13th. Then a SW-NE ridge of HP, quite substantial, develops over W Britain suggesting a chance of hot and sunny weather for the week following that.

ECM - very close to GFS

GEM - LP on Mon 8th is deeper and further to the NW with SW-lies, perhaps not as warm as the above

GEFS - mostly on the cool side until Wed 10th, then mostly on the warm side. Some rain in some runs from Sat 6th in the SE, more or less throughout elsewhere, but no great amounts.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Caz
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01 July 2024 08:38:57
It’s not looking too bad for Silverstone next weekend. Son and daughter-in-law are camping there from Wednesday to next Monday, so hoping it stays dry and not too windy for them.   
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Ally Pally Snowman
01 July 2024 11:24:13
A warmer more settled pattern does appear to be coming into view in about 8 days . Can we count it down?

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
01 July 2024 14:08:13
FI on the 0z GFS had a nice-looking set-up, with high pressure setting-up over/just to the north of the UK. The signal is far less pronounced on the 6z run.

I'd love to see the synoptics of May/June 2018 happen in a July/August. 





Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
01 July 2024 14:14:29

A warmer more settled pattern does appear to be coming into view in about 8 days . Can we count it down?

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Sure we can. In 8 days' time it will still be 8 days away. Just like a cold spell in winter 🙂
Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
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