Nice evolution on the latest GFS op, to a greeny block. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=0 

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Control is poor though and we get a warmer southerly feed
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=192&mode=0&carte=0&ext=0 
 

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Para is not much to write about either....some early season notable cold progged for NE Europe in the later stages of the Op run since 2010.

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  https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2022112706/gensnh-0-1-228.png 
 
  Control could be good further down the line all in FI though 

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At least six feet of snow would have insulating properties 😉

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BBCs Ben Rich suggesting 8dc and cloudy for Edinburgh in 7 days time.. so nothing exciting brewing in short term...

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They'll keep tight lipped about any potential cold this far out, as usual.
The real intrigue will come from the Met office contingency planners release tomorrow. 

GFS 12Z runs switch places with the parallel looking good for some cold and snow for some, while the main run goes milder.

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GFSP and GEM 12Zs the latest batch to raise pulse rates. With the general theme set we could see some Cresta runs in the next few days. In the general scheme of things it doesn't mean much but it's very entertaining 😎

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Genuine European freezer run from the GFS Para.
 

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 Certainly some interest over the next week or so to see how this develops , lots of potential for sure 

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BBCs Ben Rich suggesting 8dc and cloudy for Edinburgh in 7 days time.. so nothing exciting brewing in short term...

Shows how disappointing a lack of cold uppers can be. GEM is the evolution we need to advect some proper deep cold
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=0 


 

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The typically very conservative and slow to react UKM extended has now acknowledged the easterly influence and a nod to 'wintry showers' is a sign things are starting to get interesting.
The GFSP has -12 uppers moving into the east  in FI on the latest run in an unstable flow. 
It's an example of what could happen in the pattern being projected. 

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BBCs Ben Rich suggesting 8dc and cloudy for Edinburgh in 7 days time.. so nothing exciting brewing in short term...

Shows how disappointing a lack of cold uppers can be. GEM is the evolution we need to advect some proper deep cold
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=0 


 

But the 'short term' is not really the main topic at the moment. We know a fairly slack ESE with -4 uppers isn't much to get excited about  - it's what's being suggested in the 7-10 day range and beyond that is raising eyebrows. 

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Chilly looking Met 12z.

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ECM shows the old problem of high pressure over the Med feeding milder air into an easterly feed for the southern half of the country.

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