Trending colder with runs at the moment, where will it end, nobody knows, but many routes to some significant cold (darn the heating bills) ECM 15 dayer keeps dropping https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_meteogram?base_time=202211261200&epsgram=classical_15d&lat=51.4333&lon=-1.0&station_name=Reading 
Martin

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Yes some decent cold at the end of the ECM ENS, let's hope the trend continues 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/ecmwfens_display.php?x=282&y=103&run=12&type=2&runpara=0&mode=1 
 

Yes some decent cold at the end of the ECM ENS, let's hope the trend continues 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/ecmwfens_display.php?x=282&y=103&run=12&type=2&runpara=0&mode=1 
 

Good to see the ECM op was on the warmer side of the ensembles, as it had the HP anchored too far southeast to let the cold in. 

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Sounds like exactly the sort of weather that precedes cold spells and always has done. Before any kind of snow from the east there was always a run of grey gloomy muck to endure first. Not saying that there is anything of that nature on the way at this stage, of course, but any kind of HP centred to the east of the UK is usually pretty grey and dank at this time of year.

Not exclusively in my lifetime and experience. It can be, but there are all sorts of other pre-cursor weather to cold snowy weather. In fact back in the day a decent blue sky HP with winds from the East would often deteriorate into heavy convective snow showers off the N.Sea giving several inches of snow in East Anglia especially. It's what happens next, be it a gloomy HP or a lovely blue sky one that matters. 😁

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Pub run seems to overall be a downgrade of the Scandi high, in duration, intensity and its engagement with cold air, the Op finishing with a Northerly blast, but a dry, sunny and frosty one.

The Para brings back the Atlantic polar maritime air-mass, and the perts are all over the place. Very uncertain now, after such model consistency for a good old traditional (if now very rare) Scandi high easterly set up. More runs needed...

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Metioceil GFS https://images.meteociel.fr/im/54/15181/animlup1.gif

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Para GFS has always been the worst model..
I've said it time, time again..

First garden path journey of the winter?

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Metiociel' s output (Op)for next week:
 

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Metiociel' s GFS Op run for next week:

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There is now a narrow cluster at 5 days for mostly dry but noticibly cooler conditions. The enthusiasm for what happens longer term should as always be tempered - the lack of those 'stunning' runs in the GEFS should be seen as 'all possibilities from here', including a return of the Atlantic.
For now though we look forward to a lot of blocking and an unusually slack pressure pattern which is a much better place to be if it's 'in the deep midwinter' you're looking for.

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WX temp summary shows cold air consolidating over Europe, as far W as Poland and E Germeny and aroung the Baltic, but not advancing much. Britain retains near normal temps for early Dec. Rain by and large missing Britain and sticking in the N Sea, and plenty in the Med. Large dry area developing over continental Europe and points east.

GFS Op shows the current frontal system over the SE degenerating into a shallow trough over the N Sea before a large and persistent HP block sets up from Wed 30th. This block varies its location between N Norway and E Russia, peak pressure 1050mb Bothnia Mon 5th, and UK under SE-lies while the block is in place (enough so to disperse any fog?). The block weakens around Sat 10th allowing shallow LPs to cross France and maybe affect S England before coming back in full strength 1050mb S Norway Tue 13th.

ECM similar until Mon 5th when the block weakens and withdraws E-wards, allowing LP to establish and persist in Biscay e.g. 990mb Mon 5th.

GEFS temps generally below norm from Thu 1st (ca. 3C below) and rather dry; but England has a return to norm for a few days around Wed 7th, this reflecting a split between Op which is mild and control which is cold, each taking a group of ens members with them. Chances of rain, maybe snow, increase to some extent after Fri 9th with snow rows into double figures for Scotland, even a '10' for Norwich on Sun 11th.

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Inadvertent duplicate post - sorry, got impatient and clicked twice - but although I've now told the programme to 'delete' , the duplicate is still showing on my screen, though not in 'Last 10 posts'. The duplicate may yet disappear!

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I thought it was in the bleak midwinter. Either way, temps are certainly dropping next week. 

I thought it was in the bleak midwinter. Either way, temps are certainly dropping next week. 

Yes, it makes a change to see the t850hPa ensemble mean (GEFS)  below the LTA for a sustained period of time. (This example is for my location, others are available!)

The overall synoptic outlook is interesting even if it's not very wintry. As Neil suggests the slack and "blocky" patterns provide more opportunities for wintry conditions in the coming few weeks.

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Wherever the GFS op goes from T96 for early December that's a cracking chart 

Para GFS has always been the worst model..
I've said it time, time again..

This  is quite a telling snapshot of the jetstream from the 06z GFS op run:

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I thought it was in the bleak midwinter. Either way, temps are certainly dropping next week. 

The winters going to be bleak enough regardless of the weather. I prefer 'deep' as in '6ft drifts' 😉😎

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