theweatheroutlook

The Beast from the East
26 November 2022 10:28:53
Murr Sausage on the 06z
Cant seem to post images on this new format?

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"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
26 November 2022 10:37:38
https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2022112606/gfs-0-240.png?6 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
+1
nsrobins
26 November 2022 10:40:10
GFS current 06Z OP looks like again going into GH territory developing a behemoth of a block which unleashes the Arctic. 
These are 'interesting' times. 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+2
polarwind
26 November 2022 10:43:16
From the link - Highest NH snowcover for 56 years.
This fits nicely with the observation two months ago? that the then NH synoptics, resembled the 60's and 70's much more generally, than the last four decades. These general synoptics have since then not changed much.
The Azores High ridging northwards has been a significant recent and 60's/70's feature leading to the present extensive NH snowcover and more often than not to the European synoptics, we are now seeing forecast.
"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
doctormog
26 November 2022 11:08:16
Once again the soon to be new GFS op run (the parallel) goes OTT on the wintry synoptics: 

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Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Ally Pally Snowman
26 November 2022 11:13:28
Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

GFS current 06Z OP looks like again going into GH territory developing a behemoth of a block which unleashes the Arctic. 
These are 'interesting' times. 



The fact you're interested is a good sign in itself. 

Will December stop a record 11c CET Year?

 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ballamar
26 November 2022 11:42:40
The control run shows how it could end up being mild if things end up too far west etc with a southerly feed. Op and para are encouraging though
Rob K
26 November 2022 11:55:04
The end of the parallel 6Z run looks quite reminiscent of Dec 2010 with same problems for the south, as everything sets up so far to the northwest that milder air creeps in the further southeast you go. Still quite an interesting pattern. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
Gooner
26 November 2022 12:42:22

 Liking the look of the charts currently , just need the HP to get over us and see where it drifts . After the rubbish last year surely we will get lucky this time around ?
Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


White Meadows
26 November 2022 16:55:47
White Meadows
26 November 2022 16:56:34
fairweather
26 November 2022 17:04:11
Next week looks awful. The high pressure gloom setting in early this winter. Chilly, grey skies night and day, no real cold nights. I can't remember the last winter high pressure that wasn't like this though. Gone are the days of endless blue skies and night frosts.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Gooner
26 November 2022 17:10:28
https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2022112612/gfsnh-0-366.png?12 

Thats a blinder 

EDIT - It seems to take longer to put a reply into this thread than others ???
Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


White Meadows
26 November 2022 17:19:53
Yep, taking longer to load, post, reply ..pretty much any navigation for me. 
fairweather
26 November 2022 17:34:13
Same here. Reply got timed out first time round. 
S.Essex, 42m ASL
White Meadows
26 November 2022 17:37:24
Yep, taking longer to load, post, reply ..pretty much any navigation for me. 
Gooner
26 November 2022 17:49:28
  The Control is lining something up 😊

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2022112612/gensnh-0-1-276.png 
Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Rob K
26 November 2022 18:18:32
Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Next week looks awful. The high pressure gloom setting in early this winter. Chilly, grey skies night and day, no real cold nights. I can't remember the last winter high pressure that wasn't like this though. Gone are the days of endless blue skies and night frosts.


Sounds like exactly the sort of weather that precedes cold spells and always has done. Before any kind of snow from the east there was always a run of grey gloomy muck to endure first. Not saying that there is anything of that nature on the way at this stage, of course, but any kind of HP centred to the east of the UK is usually pretty grey and dank at this time of year.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
Rob K
26 November 2022 18:22:47
Originally Posted by: Gooner 

The Control is lining something up 😊

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2022112612/gensnh-0-1-276.png 


Almost but not quite, low pressure blows up and brings a lot of mild air in from the south. Very similar to the last control run actually.

(And yes this forum does seem very slow to post)

Edit: ECM 12Z looking better than the 0Z at this point.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Russwirral
26 November 2022 19:58:28
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