Signs of something more settled and very warm for all developing from next weekend.  This will be welcome for the NW after a couple of relatively showery weeks. 

I agreed as nationwide settled weather are far much better, longer lasting warm to hot weather days and removing the panic forming clouds at 7am for no reason why and 8pm clearance nonsense that had been plaguing during late Spring and early start to summer which give many days not useable.  Last useable days was last week very sunny weather and the week before but too short for my liking.

WX temps - the amazing heat bump over Scandinavia all the way up to the North Cape in week 1 collapses dramatically in week 2 to be replaced by pleasantly warm weather all across W Europe (except Scandinavia!), the warmth more emphasised and widely distributed than shown yesterday. Rain is quite widely distributed in week 1 but in week 2 confined to the Alps and the far north, just touching the Northern Isles and leaving S England dry.

GFS Op - the current LP fills and moves N-wards to be replaced by a shallower version from the Atlantic becoming a general trough over the UK by the end of the week (this set-up is of course what's pumping up the heat from the S into Scandinavia). On Sun 3rd the Azores High shows its influence, 1030mb into S Ireland and maintains its position through to Tue 12th, albeit withdrawing a little at times e.g. Sun 10th allowing N-lies to come close to the E coast.

GEFS - mean temps not far from norm throughout though (as above) cooler towards the end in op & control runs, but not in necessarily in other ens members. Some rain around Fri 1st in most areas, dry thereafter in the S, lass so in the N and as ever the NW getting rain at most times 

ECM - extends the influence of the HP E-wards from next weekend to add warmth and  keep any N-lies well away from UK but does hint at LP close to S Coast by Wed 6th

 

---

As a weather enthusiast I'm always looking for variations from the norm whether it be hot, cold, wet or dry. Normally there is something interesting in the outlook, but it's currently just dull (not in the meteorological sense!). It does make for perfectly useable weather, but not exciting model watching. The one hope is that changes can and do appear out of nowhere and I just hope that it will be for something hotter. Having said that we almost expect that if it's not hot and dry it will be cool and wet when frequently it's just bang average.

---

GFS Ens is less exciting than the Ops run, keeping the Azores high firmly over its homeland. Let's hope the Ops is onto something

---

GFS Ens is less exciting than the Ops run, keeping the Azores high firmly over its homeland. Let's hope the Ops is onto something

GEFS ensembles are very dry. At least it hints at usable weather for the south 

Finally a half decent run from GFS.  High pressure building in well from 144h. 

And continues on the 6z.

Could we finally be on the cusp of summer proper?

GEM is still a bit pants though.

---

As a weather enthusiast I'm always looking for variations from the norm whether it be hot, cold, wet or dry. Normally there is something interesting in the outlook, but it's currently just dull (not in the meteorological sense!). It does make for perfectly useable weather, but not exciting model watching. The one hope is that changes can and do appear out of nowhere and I just hope that it will be for something hotter. Having said that we almost expect that if it's not hot and dry it will be cool and wet when frequently it's just bang average.

Nothing wrong with bang average at this time of year. Very pleasant. 

---

WX summary temps showing the current high temps over all of Scandinavia and associated cool areas on either side subsiding. In week 2, warmth pushing up from Spain (hot there) to France and Britain while the Scandinavian heat disperses and diminishes over the Baltic and E Russia. Rain well distributed across Europe in week 1, but confined to an area N of Shetland - S Sweden - Belarus in week 2

Jet - current loop dipping S around Britain fragmenting and dispersing by the end of the week; then a weak but persistent stream N of Scotland for the following week with suggestion of a new loop around the UK Wed 13th

GFS op - LP 1000mb Scotland today moving away to make room for new LP off Atlantic arriving 1010mb covering all Britain Thu 30th. Azores High then pushes in attaining 1035mb off W Ireland Tue 5th, extensive enough for fine warm weather over all Britain (but switching the wind over Scandinavia from S to N hence the turn-round there). It weakens from Mon 11th and new shallow LP appears N Scotland Wed 13th.

GEFS - mean temp slightly below average to start with then close to norm to end of forecast. Perhaps a bit of rain Thu 30th in S, rather more and extended for a few days in the N, otherwise small amounts in only a few ens members

ECM - similar to GFS but Azores High stays further W, enough to keep UK dry but not enough to prevent N-lies through N Sea & E coasts

---

The weather certainly seems to "want" to give us something summery to start July. Most of the models are giving us runs with multiple consecutive days of mid to high 20s maxes, and little rainfall.

The patterns being churned out are also quite nicely traditional: the Azores High ridging up into Western Europe and occasionally being flattened by an Atlantic depression.

Like the olden days. And notable that in all the models the NAO is strongly positive with little in the way of high latitude blocking. Quite a La Nina pattern and also one correlated with both the current SSTA tripole pattern in the North Atlantic and (whisper it) rising level of solar activity:

---

The balance of the models seems to be indicating a dry, even warm, picture in the medium term, with notes of Azorian influence.

There is little to suggest that predictions of washouts and excessive rainfall will belatedly verify. There was some useful precipitation today for parched areas in the SE corner.

All in all a decent start to astronomical summer for a majority of the UK population, if not absolutely everywhere.

---

The balance of the models seems to be indicating a dry, even warm, picture in the medium term, with notes of Azorian influence.

There is little to suggest that predictions of washouts and excessive rainfall will belatedly verify. There was some useful precipitation today for parched areas in the SE corner.

All in all a decent start to astronomical summer for a majority of the UK population, if not absolutely everywhere.

We might even have a dry day in Witney.....Maybe, just maybe 🤣

---

We might even have a dry day in Witney.....Maybe, just maybe 🤣

 

I wouldn’t go that far! 😂

---

It sure looks dry down in this part of the world according to the 12z GEFS, barely a mm or two on any of the P's until the end of the run, with pressure sat at around 1020mb. A few hot runs shown as well. A warm and dry first half of July are a distinct possibility but never nailed on...

---

It sure looks dry down in this part of the world according to the 12z GEFS, barely a mm or two on any of the P's until the end of the run, with pressure sat at around 1020mb. A few hot runs shown as well. A warm and dry first half of July are a distinct possibility but never nailed on...

I’m sure that’s valid analysis but without a location in your signature, “in this part of the world” doesn’t mean much.

---

WX maps not loading this morning so here's a repeat of yesterday's comment - in addition I had a look last night and not much had then changed though if anything the prospects for high temps for Britain had increased in week 2 :  the current high temps over all of Scandinavia and associated cool areas on either side subsiding. In week 2, warmth pushing up from Spain (hot there) to France and Britain while the Scandinavian heat disperses and diminishes over the Baltic and E Russia. Rain well distributed across Europe in week 1, but confined to an area N of Shetland - S Sweden - Belarus in week 2

Jet; weak loop around the UK until about Mon 4th after which something stronger but intermittent across N Britain

FAX; LP ca 1000mb off W Scotland pushing a mess of fronts across Britain on Wed, then a new LP in much the same position on Fri does a repeat but less active

GFS Op; trough over Britain to Fri receding N-wards as Azores HP pushes in from the SW, at its strongest Tue 5th 1035mb off SW Ireland, declining somewhat as LP 985mb moves past Faeroes Sun 10th but pressure still quite high over S England 

GEFS; mean temp cool at first, improving to seasonal norm by the weekend (more quickly in S) and staying there though op & control hold out hopes for something warmer around Thu 7th. A little rain in the next few days, though more in NW as usual, followed by a dry week and then a few ens members showing rain from Sun 10th. 

ECM; like GFS with Azores HP if anything closer to Ireland

---

ECM 0z looks like heatwave territory this morning.  A real summer beauty of a run.  

---

 

I’m sure that’s valid analysis but without a location in your signature, “in this part of the world” doesn’t mean much.

 

Southern tip of Argentina/Chile? 

---

ECM 0z looks like heatwave territory this morning.  A real summer beauty of a run.  

Yuk

Bound to happen, just hope it wont be like Japan at the moment

---

Azores high wants to stay centred out west but with more influence than recently. Plenty of dry weather and probably becoming quite warm in places as we get into July.

---

 

 

Southern tip of Argentina/Chile? 

 

Well I did wonder, until I saw his analysis – would be odd indeed in the depths of winter 

---