We've just had a heavy shower. More possible through the evening.

Had similar yesterday.

 

There's a world outside of SE England...

As to be expected, in a NW v SE setup. 

Meanwhile, this country wide monsoon must end sometime. 

It may not be particularly wet in the East, but it's like pulling teeth to get some proper high pressure to to build in. If we can then I think it could get very hot . Maybe mid July. 

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We've just had a heavy shower. More possible through the evening.

Had similar yesterday.

 

There's a world outside of SE England...

Meanwhile across the Pennines, still no rain for 2 weeks, and only light showers in the forecast (which will probably amount to nothing, just as the forecast showers today amounted to nothing).

The grass is really turning yellow now. 

Personally I’m fine with it staying dry. We haven’t had a hosepipe ban here since 1995 so I’m not worried about that.

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It may not be particularly wet in the East, but it's like pulling teeth to get some proper high pressure to to build in. If we can then I think it could get very hot . Maybe mid July. 

0z GFS makes it look particularly difficult and once again is showing some pretty poor weather coming up with a lot of rain.

I guess it will downgrade again, but one thing seems certain, and that is, we are not getting a sustained push from the Azores High, and the way this summer is shaping up, I don't think we will, as patterns tend to repeat.

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0z GFS makes it look particularly difficult and once again is showing some pretty poor weather coming up with a lot of rain.

I guess it will downgrade again, but one thing seems certain, and that is, we are not getting a sustained push from the Azores High, and the way this summer is shaping up, I don't think we will, as patterns tend to repeat.

Yes no sign of high pressure  this morning.  V frustrating for high summer.  East remains pretty dry though much wetter in the west.

 Personally I think high pressure will turn up mid July and it will get hot. Couple of weeks of meh to get through first though. 

 

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Must be awful to live in one of the wettest parts of the UK and be the first to face a hosepipe ban.

Must be awful to live in one of the wettest parts of the UK and be the first to face a hosepipe ban.

Well, you never know.

Stranger things than that have happened before, and you just never know what the weather gods might throw at us at the end of the day.

 

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WX summary temps show a bulge of high temp piled up over the Baltic in week 1, and reasonably warm over W Europe; but in week 2 all that withdraws to the SE and only S of the Alps/Pyrenees is there anything which could be described as hot. Quite wet over NW Europe week 1, focus for rain moves to Alps and E Baltic week 2 with England and Ireland largely dry. (Sorry, Scotland!)

Jet - current cut-off low shrinks and disperses over the coming week; in the following week minor streaks from the W affect the UK and sometimes persist into Europe

GFS Op - current LP hangs around the N & W of Britain until Thu 30th. Then there's a col between HP to SW and NE (as yesterday) but this deepens into LP 990mb NE Scotland (which wasn't there yesterday). Tis LP fills and drifts NE-wards but the large area of HP on the Atlantic is close enough to give mostly dry weather but far enough away that winds are from a cool NW-ly point for UK and most of Europe. End-of-run Mon 9th finally brings in the HP as a ridge from Azores to Norway.

GEFS - cool for a few days than mean temp close to norm to Tue 10th with no major outliers, rain likely in most of Britain around Fri 1st, drier later in England but persisting in Scotland, also wet earlier than the 1st in far NW

ECM - similar to GFS (this week's LP closer to Irish Sea than GFS; later charts are 12z but I have to go out shortly and can't wait for the download at 0800)

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Must be awful to live in one of the wettest parts of the UK and be the first to face a hosepipe ban.

Water companies assuming that a 'wettest part of the UK' can be guaranteed continual rain, and not providing sufficient reserve storage if there is a dry period?

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Meanwhile across the Pennines, still no rain for 2 weeks, and only light showers in the forecast (which will probably amount to nothing, just as the forecast showers today amounted to nothing).

The grass is really turning yellow now. 

Personally I’m fine with it staying dry. We haven’t had a hosepipe ban here since 1995 so I’m not worried about that.

It certainly hasn’t felt especially wet here, just a few drops of rain over the past couple of weeks, nothing substantial. Lots of sunshine. 

Will be interesting to see if we get meaningful rain today. BBC Weather (EPS) showing dry as a bone with lots of sunny intervals. Met Office says light rain to heavy showers all afternoon.

Looking at the synoptic setup I’d favour the latter but you never know. 


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_12_1.png

 

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0z GFS makes it look particularly difficult and once again is showing some pretty poor weather coming up with a lot of rain.

I guess it will downgrade again, but one thing seems certain, and that is, we are not getting a sustained push from the Azores High, and the way this summer is shaping up, I don't think we will, as patterns tend to repeat.

The one pattern that certainly has repeated this season is endless predictions of “abysmal” “washouts” while I line Thames Water’s pockets with daily visits to the garden tap. 

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Yes there is little rain in the outlook in the East. But its fairly uninspiring stuff it has to be said. 

 

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The trough/low pressure is just hanging around like a bad smell. Still no convincing end date to it f#ckng off. Maybe a case of coming back in a week to see where we are. 

 

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The one pattern that certainly has repeated this season is endless predictions of “abysmal” “washouts” while I line Thames Water’s pockets with daily visits to the garden tap. 

No need for watering here. 11mm of rain in about half an hour this evening leading to Glasto-style scenes at the local music festival. Nice sunny evening after it pushed off around 7pm though. 

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No need for watering here. 11mm of rain in about half an hour this evening leading to Glasto-style scenes at the local music festival. Nice sunny evening after it pushed off around 7pm though. 

Aye - was a tad unexpected and biblical for a while. I thought Kieran had been cloud seeding again 

Outlook looks bland but that sometimes indicates something interesting down the line. We seem to be stuck close to a cool trough while heat piles north over the near continent. Potential rainmaker but nothing guaranteed

Some [nice] surprises in the morning from 00z ☀️

Finally a half decent run from GFS.  High pressure building in well from 144h. 

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ECM looking pretty sweet too, a dry and warmer start to July. Hopefully some proper heatwaves to follow.

ECM looking pretty sweet too, a dry and warmer start to July. Hopefully some proper heatwaves to follow.

Yes as heatwaves is very interesting and useable to go outside to enjoy.  Going to York on 1-2 July looking good as well. 

Signs of something more settled and very warm for all developing from next weekend.  This will be welcome for the NW after a couple of relatively showery weeks. 

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