Yes - doesn't get any worse that this for anyone wanting cold and or snowy weather! After this mornings flip and then there was still the potential to see a colder snap at or around boxing day - BUT then that was delayed and now it appears that nowhere in the south will see any seasonably cold weather over Christmas! I know you will see that it's "TOO FAR out!" However, I have seen enough model runs now to call it a mild and wild wet Christmas and we will have yet another milder than average Christmas (at least for the south anyway!). Nice model watching over the past week and what a pity to note that all JMA/CFS/EC are incorrect. I don't know what the Met Office will including in their text forecast tomorrow because there is nothing cold and or wintry showing up now for the south. - All ending in tears and 1/3 of the winter will be gone by end of December. 

Always next year and hope we shall get snow in January or else all eyes will be on the stratospheric temperatures.

Clutching at straws we still just about have a 25% snow risk here on Boxing Day.

On that last run, look how far north the mild air is dragged at 384hr time frame. I know this is an unrealistic time frame but even so.

possibly the best chart I have seen for a decent cold spell to develop

I hope tomorrow I shall wake up from this nightmare! At least I am not the only one having a nightmare!

If it's any consolation! - The 25th December 2015 was the mildest it has ever been in a long time - we measured 15.5c on Xmas day in Devon. Uppers between +4c to +8c widely before the winds turned north westerly on boxing day and we had some showers that turned to sleet and wet snow! 2017/18 was the winter of cold zonality and this eventually lead to a SSW which gave us the BFTE. Could we see a repeat!? - Trying to see positive signs here on what has been a disappointing day model watching! 

I’m happy to have a slice of humble pie with my turkey if this continues but tonight’s 00Z runs are the mark for an Xmas Day forecast. UKMO is being a bit naughty though so there’s a bit if work to do yet.

Well, well, well, would you Adam and Eve it, but the villain of the pantomime has turned out to be the hero this morning, rescuing  victory from what seemed sure defeat: What seemed like murder on the orient express - death by 1000 cuts, is now back into anyone guess territory, and if the GFS Op is to be believed, pretty sound outcome for some, if not all. However, there is nothing like cross model alignment - as yesterday, yet again, every model is quite different past 60 hours, and the Christmas pantomime continues, even if this is the only one we’ll be able to watch courtesy of Omicron. 

Here’s what I am expecting in the next few days: 

Well the GFS is much better this morning problem is everything else is worse.  

The inconsistency is making a mockery of any serious forecast for  the Christmas Day - 27th period.  I would wait another day or two before imbuing any confidence. I think that the FI window will come down to t72 very possibly, meaning it could be as late as Wednesday before this one is resolved. The models have all flipped...flippin 'ek!

you might be right but you do realise you are basing what you are saying on one latest operational from UKMO and ECM

You're probably right,  but it's been such a poor period for model consistency it might flip back tonight. 

I thought at first the GFS Op would be a cold outlier amongst its ENS but in fact it's not. It's a mirror image of the average output.

UKMO is the killer though. After days of rock solid consistency it's flipped.

So it's the volatile GFS model that's offering some hope for a white Christmas. I expect Paddy Power's odds of 4/6 for Edinburgh will be more like 4/1 today. Incredible turn around.

Given the model output, that would indeed be incredible and a massive risk for any betting site.

EC Det Was a genuine mild outlier from day 2 - 6 and MOGREPS showing 30% sliders, so whilst the mild Christmas for the south seems most likely, there's still a chance of something seasonal.