Remember a few weekends back when a cold but generally dry Sunday was forecast? About 48 hours before that Sunday the FAX charts started modelling a trough moving southwards down the spine of the UK, the short-range models like ARPEGE also picked it up closer to the time.

By the time Sunday came along, the trough dumped a few inches of snow to quite a few areas, including here which nicely topped up our thawing snow cover from the Saturday.

My point is, it is so important to get the cold in first, especially at the range we're still looking at. We can, and should speculate and enjoy the charts sure, but given the propensity for disturbances to suddenly show up and surprise at very short range in such cold and potentially unstable air, it isn't worth worrying about any lack of precip yet (or if snow was progged for a location, then not on the next run, etc) 🙂

Indeed Michael. Could be one of the all-time great Christmas Days if that comes off as shown.

Could leave us dry though but very cold ?

The early December cold (end of Nov) gave a few days of lying snow from knowhere!

I follow the weather closely and came home at 1pm and suddenly there was a mass snow event on the radar moving from the NW lol. 

Once cold is established, there will always be short features that arise 

Depending on how things develop from the T+240 chart, it looks like there could be another good chance of snow on the 29th (T+264), though possibly then turning to rain.

UK at 240

At 168 we are getting close to the semi reliable timeframe. Amazing charts across the board this evening.

Its an old cliche but we have been here many many times before.

So many 0z 6.30am cups of coffee have gone sour in the cold light of dawn after evenings like these.

Lets hope tomorrow morning isn't one of them. 

At least it's unlikely to be as disappointing as the cricket.

I will be in west Dorset so bank that one.

Think I’d only stretch that to T120 Steve so many options after that if you play them

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=120&mode=0&carte=0

ive had so many disappointments I don’t get exited anymore.

** Lies Lies more Lies

[quote=jhall;1401325]

At least it's unlikely to be as disappointing as the cricket.

Yes, but at least the cricket outcome can be forecast very accurately from months out /quote]

Sorry but I am not seeing why people are all over these charts, they are not amazing. Yes it will go colder but can’t see a lot of areas catching too much snow. More dry and cold but all could change. 

Not all about the 850’s you see on the charts - these are cold and potentially snowy if precipitation is about

ECM looks pretty snowy to me. Every cold and snowy spell starts with people moaning that the charts look "cold but dry".

Compared to most sets of pre-Christmas charts from the past 30 years, they are pretty amazing.

240hr ECM chart looks absolutely bitter with a mini HP cell over the country and very cold air in place.

And where is Shropshire to tell us the models have got it wrong and the zonal train is coming?

he is very active on another weather forum...casting gloom and despondency and saying it will be 8c in the Staffordshire moorlands on Christmas Day 😛😛

It seems a train is coming from up the line and it's called the Arctic Meridional Express!

I wonder if it will be on schedule?

That is a serious plume of cold uppers coming out of the near Arctic in the last frame of the ECMWF tonight:

All options on the table but settled, dry and cold could be right , that is how I read the Met Office mid range forecast too. 

 It is not a moan it is just what I see. For a pre Christmas chart it is colder than most but not amazing.  

ECM ensembles show op and control sat at the bottom end of the set, but look at the overall temps of the whole set as it does not get above 3c for most of it,

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/web/classical_meteogram?facets=undefined&time=2021121812,0,2021121812&epsgram=classical_10d&lat=53.2&lon=-2.91667&station_name=Chester,%20United%20Kingdom&altitude=12

Let’s see what the morning brings, more drama I am sure, but overall a cold outlook long term

Martin