A cruel twist from the GFS this evening. I wonder if stormy weather could be the risk in the south this Christmas? 

The background signals are still in our favour, and I can't believe that we are suddenly about to switch to horrendous raging Zonality, not this winter!

Icon G 12z looks more promising for cold weather fans and ECM often follows it.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/icon-global.aspx?run=12&charthour=180&chartname=mslp500&chartregion=na&charttag=MSLP%20500hPa

Have you actually seen the UK Met 12z?

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmet.aspx?run=12&charthour=168&chartname=500hpa_height&chartregion=na-region&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM

Yeh I reckon.

What im seeing is standard Model shenanigan's lots of runs and plenty of time for things to correct.  No point worrying about stuff like this for now.

One other potential is that we see a cold plunge delayed by a week or two as we clear through one or two pulses of atlantic energy.  But the signal is still there

Not much festive cheer for the south with the 0C isotherm still not reaching here. Might improve in the following frames if they existed!

Not good for your health is it?

The more that is made of the Atlantic trough the further north it goes - that's the general rule. We really need to see this trough stretched and shallower and on a NW/SE axis to be in the game here, and that could happen as things develop. Or not.

Is the 12Z ECM the biggest of the big, or just the big one?

White Christmas 0

More runs needed but this one is fading fast

GEM is rubbish mate. Its almost game over tonight. We need a good ECM. 

again - is it?

Just look forward to the next run, I reckon wintry stuff will be back again soon...  its like riding the bid dipper

Daily Express may have to write a new headline for tomorrow "UK Set to have the mildest and wettest Christmas on record"

Just saw the BBC weather forecast saying colder weather will arrive by Xmas and showed the battleground and cold air coming our way! Well I wonder what their next forecast will be? Must be a nightmare for weather forecasters this.

Met Office will have to re-write their updated outlook issued a few hours ago. The CFS/JMA/EC 46 day are all wrong if this 12z comes about - even it's a struggle to get the -5c uppers to Scotland on this run and after Christmas into the New Year we could see temperatures in the low to mid teens in the south! Wow! This could come as the biggest failure ever! After the past few runs this is a horror show. Oh well was nice to see the easterly and snow showers feeding in over Xmas whilst it lasted in the models.

Here's to a more accurate 12z ECM ..!?

Yes, trending very much against us at the moment.

I am trying to see why (after such strong signals for cold) it has gone P.Tong!? Is it the High in wrong place? WHat caused such a shift to exceptionally milder weather which we could now well get!? The high is/was clearly over Greenland and also there is a substantial amount of cold air just to our east. Both AO and NAO are going negative too I saw the Met Office update saying colder further south etc then I see such balmy zonal and mild charts. I am so confused. We see this time and time again with the models and the Op isn't a mild outlier this time either! :/

With respect, I think that anyone saying at this stage that it's all gone Pete Tong for cold is doing so a little prematurely, to say the least.

OK, there have been a couple of poorer GFS op runs for southern areas anyway today but I think this is a long way from being decided, one way or the other. My experience of these situations in the past is that a lot can and does change very quickly and with little warning, for the better or for the worse.

Let's see what the ECM 12z op shows as well as the runs over this weekend.

Nothing has gone Pete tong.  It's still over a week away and hasn't happened yet.

As Michael has said, the ensembles are looking pretty consistent/steady as we go.

 LLTNP 105m asl 

Even with a negative AO and NAO it's no good for us if the high is too far north and lets the lows through the gap.

Struggling to see much to be upbeat about on the 12Z output so far but we all know that often the models throw in a wobble before going back to their original ideas, so that's what I am pinning my hopes on.

Oh dear, just hope GFS doesn't end up being the trend setter with the stormy Christmas day for the South Coast. Knowing my luck it'll  end up being the case where I'll be getting soaked wet and wind blasted here at Kent while the rest of the UK has seasonal-type frosty calm sunny weather. Still plenty of leg room for changes, of course.

We need a stonker of a ECM to steady the nerves. 

Yes good point David and Rob!

I think that was the issue is that the high went too far north allowing LP's to develop and strengthen over the WARM Atlantic....so a warm Atlantic has help to fuel and intensify our LP systems ...would you agree? Anyway, we shall see...!?

I hope we don't have to keep relying on a SSW each winter just to get a decent cold spell

Fingers crossed for a more reliable cold ECM and that the 18z will flip back - ECM doesn't flip as much as GFS's do so we shall see...

But I am sure you can all appreciate the disappointment after all this hope it's becoming a de ja vu!

In times of trouble - mother `UKMO comes to me and whispers words of reason - let it be. The UKMO keeps the jet to the south (for now) and could drive a channel low across us - and provide snow-maggedon - for someone. This is the most likely scenario at the moment. As Gandalf the White and wise wizard says, it is all about the jet forecast now and where the energy goes and whether it is bifferacated, or if undiluted, will it crash through to the south of us like in 1947....