Dominant cluster nearly puts De Bilt in the freezer, again, lots of uncertainty.

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim

Surely not?

ECMWF 14-day ensemble weather forecast for Royal Tunbridge Wells | Weather.us

The IMBY set show a fairly clear split in 850s starting circa 22nd December, before more members gradually drift down post Xmas for a couple of days at least. 

Overall though as you say there's a lot of uncertainty although chilly to cold remains more likely than average to mild (in the mid to long term). 

I only place a reasonable level of trust in Met office mid to long range these days. This over any model. The argument they don’t have access to data outside of that available to the general public doesn’t wash for me. Let the experts do the tough work, model watching is a fun hobby otherwise.

Back to the here & now.. Lots of options still on the table. But history tells us the freezer ain’t one of them, despite any ‘hints’ of transient snow in lucky places possible later in the month.

👍 very true,people here see what they want to see rather than what is happening.The usual suspects seeing -15 uppers and snowmaggedon every week,every winter!

That is the take away message this evening - don’t fly your flag on every operational in isolation, rather look at the flow of the means.  

This is true. Luckily as most keen weather watchers like me enjoy seeing snow the majority personal agenda is for cold  It's difficult to argue against a colder spell next week onwards going by several models but very difficult to be sure of the exact extent and type of cold as all options still remain on the table.

WZ also broken for me. 

Doesn't look that good to me, it never really gets properly cold air in and then it's breaking down the block quite quickly.

I can't tell how the 18z goes one way or another as WZ seems to have stalled, as noted above.

Perts now moving again...Op still frozen (I’ll take that as a good omen) LOL....Perts mostly show cold air heading our way....

Just scanned the 18z ensembles. I would say reliability ends at T96

When you this 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwf.aspx?run=00&charthour=168&chartname=mslp500&chartregion=na-region&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM

What a Xmas Day present from ECM.......................fingers crossed 

Not so from GFS 

ECM looks very similar to the GFS Control as well.

Definitely a nudge back in favour of cold weather for Christmas again, but courtesy of the renewed energy in the southern arm of the jet.

We’ve seen quite often how the models can ‘over correct’ when a new pattern is detected. We could be in the worst possible place for certainty - and, for a change, the best for the pieces to fall just right.

Bingo!

Still a chance that Xmas could go down as one of the all time weather classics. 

GEFS looking increasingly wet and green. Who trusts ECM?🎅❄️🎄