As others have said, it's way too early to be making any assumptions about the Christmas week yet. The potential is there for a fairly memorable cold spell in line with the recent EC 30 day outlook, but as ever, there's a lot of variables and plenty that could go wrong.

Interesting times ahead though.

Originally Posted by: Arbroath 1320 

The way I see it we have gone from looking at a fairly stable and cold but not too exciting HP dominated set-up to more of a high risk, high reward picture with milder air trying to displace a cold block. Which is generally the recipe for biggest snowfalls but can also easily lead to despair as the mild air pushes in too far. Ideally of course I would want the mild air to stall over the SW bringing 48 hours or so of snowfall to southern England before a reinvigorated block pushes it all back westwards and freezes everything solid.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Re: Gavin’s post just now - It was perhaps both of those months. I recall well as I was living in Hull at the time which despite its low elevation, was very snowy that winter. Data from Feb 1985 suggests a very cold late winter in the south of the UK, with long periods of snow lying, although the synoptics and raw 850s suggest it’s shouldn’t have been quite so cold.

With the exception of a brief “westerly” phase at the end of January and into early February, the winter months of 1985 were characterised by repeated incursions of cold air from easterly directions combined with quite a mobile set up. Perhaps a difference between that year and those we are more recently familiar with, is how very cold air built up to the east of us earlier in the winter (late December) than has happened over much of the last 20 years (if it happens at all!). I suspect that if we looked into it, sea ice on the Baltic for example, would have been quite extensive and very large areas of the Eastern European and Scandinavian land masses frozen solid. When this happens, simple geographical proximity (even allowing for sea crossings), I contend that our winters are more likely to be characterised by frequent cold snaps or possible longer cold periods, than if the Eurasian land mass, remains (mostly) snow free, particularly early in the winter. I think this also has an influence on snow frequency and longevity in the south of the UK, with close continental influence keeping dew points low, even if southerly and southeasterly winds and upper temps say something otherwise.

Understandably, all eyes are on the upcoming festive period. But irrespective of whatever might be happening over us during this period. keep an eye on the breadth and depth of cold to the east of us. Short days and long nights over the next four weeks combined with deep cold not far to our east may have an interesting effect on our winter to come

Jeff

Originally Posted by: Jeff 

Ideally of course I would want the mild air to stall over the SW bringing 48 hours or so of snowfall to southern England before a reinvigorated block pushes it all back westwards and freezes everything solid.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I have a wee issue

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Old age... 🤫

Originally Posted by: Jive Buddy 

Re: Gavin’s post just now - It was perhaps both of those months. I recall well as I was living in Hull at the time which despite its low elevation, was very snowy that winter. Data from Feb 1985 suggests a very cold late winter in the south of the UK, with long periods of snow lying, although the synoptics and raw 850s suggest it’s shouldn’t have been quite so cold.

With the exception of a brief “westerly” phase at the end of January and into early February, the winter months of 1985 were characterised by repeated incursions of cold air from easterly directions combined with quite a mobile set up. Perhaps a difference between that year and those we are more recently familiar with, is how very cold air built up to the east of us earlier in the winter (late December) than has happened over much of the last 20 years (if it happens at all!). I suspect that if we looked into it, sea ice on the Baltic for example, would have been quite extensive and very large areas of the Eastern European and Scandinavian land masses frozen solid. When this happens, simple geographical proximity (even allowing for sea crossings), I contend that our winters are more likely to be characterised by frequent cold snaps or possible longer cold periods, than if the Eurasian land mass, remains (mostly) snow free, particularly early in the winter. I think this also has an influence on snow frequency and longevity in the south of the UK, with close continental influence keeping dew points low, even if southerly and southeasterly winds and upper temps say something otherwise.

Understandably, all eyes are on the upcoming festive period. But irrespective of whatever might be happening over us during this period. keep an eye on the breadth and depth of cold to the east of us. Short days and long nights over the next four weeks combined with deep cold not far to our east may have an interesting effect on our winter to come

Jeff

Originally Posted by: Jeff 

Old age... 🤫

Originally Posted by: Jive Buddy 

Old age is waking at 5am and, not being able to get back to sleep, checking the 00z output....

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

The european steamroller working hard on this afternoons GFS...

plenty of runs left to resolve this, as this is quite a different run to earlier

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

Curiously, up to 7 days out, its actually a marginally "better" Op run than both the 06 and the 00 prior to this one. It would seem at around this time (t168), there's a tipping point somewhere upstream upon or from which the synoptics took almost a completely different route from prior Op runs at this juncture. if this tipping point repeats at the 18 and then the 00, and coincides and recurs with the ECM for example, then we may have an issue, but not until then  

EDIT: GEM has just arrived at t162, again looking "better" than its prior run, which way will it go .....

Originally Posted by: Jeff 

The perturbations up to 174 are actually encouraging for cold

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

They are, and I normally support taking the mean over the Op, but ignore a big shift in the OP solution at your peril! 
As the lyric suggests, no one said this was easy.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Oh dear - after the excitement from the 00z and 06z operational has now reverted to it's status quo when the UKMO and GEM firm up on a colder blocked pattern! ALl eyes on ECM i guess!? Enjoying the rollercoaster everyone!?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83