Hell of as tease though - huh? That Op this morning  Oh - the lights - the lights....so tempting....

it doesn’t look like an improvement to me. My interpretation is that the blocking looks much less convincing across the model output, gone are the strong yellow and orange heights and instead there are just vague green blobs. It’s just luck that the GFS has thrown out a blinder of an op run but even that looks pretty shaky in the mid range before managing to squeeze an easterly out of it. 

Even the GEM has thrown in the towel. 

The biggest change is in 2m temperatures. We've gone from 83% in the 12z going for 5C or lower on Dec 25th to 39% in today's 00z. That's massive and I expect it reflects more of an Atlantic influence rather than warmer air aloft. In other words Christmas which has been looking consistently cold for days could easily turn out average or mild.   

Energy in Atlantic will be a blessing in disguise long term....

Trying to be a bit less cryptic:

WX summary sows progressive W-ward movement of cold air; by week 2 all of continental Europe N of the Alps is below 0C and also the higher ground of the UK. Still very dry for Dec week  1 for all Europe, lots of rain through Spain and the Med week 2

GFS op - HP growing to cover UK 1040 mb Sat 18th weakening and becoming part of a ridge Iceland - Italy Tue 21st. By Xmas day it's almost gone and LP moving SE=wards into Biscay gives a S/SE flow; but that LP then positions over S France to provide a cold (not v cold ) E-ly Mon 27th. By Fri 31st the HP is back in the Atlantic as the dominant player, NW-lies for Scotland swinging round to NE-lies for England

GEFS - mean temp slowly back down to norm Thu 23rd and stays there but much variation in Ens members developing after tha;  op w cold, control v mild  in S so GFS backing both scenarios. Similar in the N but less extreme variation between runs.  Noticebly more pptn for the S in different runs from Thu 23rd but snow rows stay low indicating a split  in solutions between milder LP and colder HP.

ECM - agrees with the above GFS. The LP in Biscay is deeper but the forecast ends at that point with the SE-lies in place

A lot of high expectations it seems this morning, in the face of a rather hefty (yet not unexpected) climb down.
If todays runs don’t step back in the right direction I think the Met office text has to be taken as given.

If I could put more of an Irish twist on that, which I find to more true:

"Have zero expectations and you'll still end up bitterly disappointed".

ECMWF mean still going for a weakly high over weakly low pattern towards Christmas. Potentially chilly, but will it be chilly enough to be interesting? 

As I mentioned yesterday, we are a couple of runs away from a Christmas Atlantic return. 

Pretty serious cool down over the next 7 days across the continent, and more particularly over the eastern part of it:

A big step down for cold weather fans, thats quite a huge swing toward less cold weather and a big nod toward the Atlantic influencing our weather. If this trend should continue over the next 24 to 48 hours we can probably kiss a cold Christmas goodbye. Lets hope we see the opposite trend....

Where is Tom Presutti when you need him!  

Whatever happens at least its a much more interesting Xmas period than anything in recent years

Agreed

Even if we just have a nice dry run up - that would be right up my street.  Usable sunny days off

And there was me waking up thinking "wow" what an upgrade looking at the 00z GFs operational this morning...yet only to find out it was a cold outlier and the control collapses the block around the 20th to bring in milder Atlantic Air. Boo!!

I agree Neil. I also think this is still some way off from being settled one way or the other.

GEM has been the wintriest model of all of them

alot of runs left mind 🙂

And now a bit of light hearted relief.

Noticed this in the latest UKMO model for this Saturday, is this the record for the highest low pressure system? 

the 06z Operational @ +252 the cold air mass (-10c isotherm) is only 100 or so miles across the north sea! So close!!

This OP run favours NE areas to get the cold first, unsure whether it’s in time for a white Christmas. Looks like cold is still on the cards although bit later for the south by the looks of this one op run!

ignore that just got the 2m temps cold air embedded

This particular OP run (06Z GFS) is the sort of high stakes scenario that should get us all enthused. A Boxing Day rain to snow event for many with -12s flooding in over the receding trough. The fact that GFS has adjusted a little again from the 00Z run doesn't really prove anything though.

As front retreats south...if more energy could be picked up off Atlantic definitely a 1979 scenario...the cold to tap into is out there.....

The -10c Isotherm makes it into the UK just after 25th on this 06z Operational run with some parts going down to -12c uppers - if this was to verify daytime maxes would not get above freezing and there could be a lot of snow on this easterly wind esp for the south. I wonder where this run will sit in amongst it's ENS members and hope this isn't yet another cold outlier or if it is then other models runs will follow this Operational: - I can't remember the last time we had an easterly around Xmas and the NY!

Still a really confused picture everyone from model to model...agree!?

Significant shift in the ensembles today, not least the appearance of many rainfall spikes from mid-term.

It could be the writing on the wall for the expected cold period but there remains clustering in both directions so a backward step but still a long way off

Potentially very snowy for some, but we will see a lot of playing around with the airmasses. Seems like the kind of situation where we get an amazing pub run (where the -10 is further west over the UK) and a few 'toys of of pram' 00/12zs where we are in >0C uppers.

All we have done in the past 24 hours or so is switch rollercoasters!

Malcolm

Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

Yes tell me about it - last nights 18z - little if any precipitation spikes in it's ENS:

Compared to this mornings 00z - Quite an increase in precipitation spikes - this is after days of showing so much blocked cold and dry weather! - Still a long way to go before we will know what will happen over Christmas for our weather: