Onwards....

I've deleted the old thread because I didn't have time to remove the OT posts.

Ensembles getting that look about ‘em tonight:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=2&bw=1&geoid=49069

Less grouping above the average for sure 

Where are your Mods when you need them, eh?

Tsk!

Likely outcome, this side of Xmas at least, remains a chilly, foggy and sometimes murky UK High. 

OT so apologies BUT just seen the 21:55 for next week and it has the HP clearing off Eastwards leaving us in mild air 

Well done on 20 years of this madness Saint 

He covered himself by saying we might get cold air from the East but was too keen on showing the HP going East with mild air over us 

A cold dry Xmas Eve ..............not a bad option 

The HP is heading off East into Europe for it's winter skiing holiday.

In such a stagnant set up we could have benign conditions at least in the south for many weeks to come.

Bring back the mobile hairdryer I hear them say!

Eh?

It looks like just another route to continuing cold to me.  But there’s really little value in getting hung up on the twists and turns of individual op runs when we’re into La-La land.

The cold theme continues 

I would hope that everyone would be encouraged by a jet stream profile like this:

Control looks ok 

I heard that the Met office called this  sinker to drag back Atlantic winds 2weeks ago or more. Since then we have seen run after run of increasingly modelled threat of serious cold weather arriving between the 24th and the 30th, culminating this afternoon in 15 seriously cold perturbations, and a glorious Op FI end. This is a pub run of death - with a quiet mild spell - perhaps with a little temperature inversion - before the raging Atlantic returns. Is this an outlier? Let’s sincerely hope so. I fear not however. 

Cold end to FI

A proper freeze at this festive time would be just the tonic for yet another variant of the dreaded, and now very dull Covid 19...

But sadly now a mild cluster forming after 23rd

LOL

Which run are you seeing? The 18z ends up quite blocked again, although the energy seems to be largely back in the northern arm again and our block manages to cut off access to the bulk of the Arctic air mass. But there’s no evidence of the Atlantic returning to our shores in this op.

But very very much in the minority 

Exactly 

My bad, the GFS Op had just got to 286 hours, when I posted that - (and it all looked very Pete Tong), and the high by then had sunk - with mild weather wafting over the UK. Of course thereafter - the high re-inflated and pivoted nicely into a cold easterly (but not very cold). 

Just for fun - check out pert 28...that would be a peach...Jan 1987 all over again...