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GFS 6Z is very quick to bring back the unsettled.Second run in a row to look more unsettled, so probably a new trend again.
Yes after a brief warm up the blue/green upper air colours just stick to the UK like a limpet way out into June. Had enough of the chill now!
Better this way for FI so we get better weather extending like this unsettled cold spell had been persisting while warm and settled was stuck in FI so now it their turn to be opposite so not worried about the FI range. Looking forward to some very warm weather next week.
Excellent 12s especially GEM and UKMO. Both look like a lengthy very warm spell. GFS has a mini breakdown 168 ish but soon brings the high pressure back.
GEM really is a scorcher 29c for Wednesday.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gem&var=5&run=12&time=147&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref
Yes I agree a bit OT but I can’t believe how pleasant it has felt outside in the sunshine today at just 18c
Some silly temps being progged now on some models (eg GEM). Won’t happen IMO. Just nice late spring weather, the better the further south and east you are.
GEM really is a scorcher 29c for Wednesday. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gem&var=5&run=12&time=147&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref
GFS remains the fly in the ointment. All other models are increasingly warm. Will GFS be nearest to the mark? My money is on yes, but hoping not.
If my memory serves me correctly, over the last few days you have suggested that the ECM, GEM, UKMO and GFS options are most likely to come to fruition. The only commonality has been that the choice depended on which one showed the least settled/coolest option.
Is this you Moomin?https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KRPcssq-7Us
😅😅 That's me!
Very warm/ hot ECM.
The French furnace is back. Mid 30s there , high 20s here.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=16&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref
Very warm/ hot ECM. The French furnace is back. Mid 30s there , high 20s here.https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=16&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref
I always plump for the one that shows least settled yes. Because that is the most likely scenario. However, it looks a bit on its own at the moment, so hopefully the Euros and the GEM are closer to the mark.
😂Evidence required!
Certainly ECM starting to show some very thundery conditions.
Assuming things can remain more settled we will easily get into the mid 20's C next week down here given the above average uppers
Deleted.
GFS maintaining its consistent trend of turning unsettled quite quickly. I think tomorrow's runs will set the tone for a more changeable and cooler outlook.
This is rather like escaping the Minotaur in the maze, Kieren. If you keep turning in the same direction repeatedly you will theoretically eventually emerge from the labyrinth.
Do this all summer, and by the time it chucks it down on 22 September you can claim victory.
GFS remains more unsettled on the 0z and ECM 850s are much lower than were being shown yesterday. The backtrack continues.
GEM still flying the flag for serious heat though.
Who knows what next week will bring?