16-dayer - UK still in cool pool into week 2 even as temps rampup in S Fance in an arc round to Germany. Rain generally week 1 confined to S England week 2 (with band continuing across the continent)

Jet stream - disconnected streaks across or near to the UK, fading out from Sat 5th

GFS - new trough moving in from the W Mon 24th, filling and moving to N Sea but hanging on just enough to prevent HP on the Atlantic from doing more than affecting fringes of UK through to Mon 31st when a more w-ly type of weather sets in. Finally LP over Spain Fri 4th teams up with Atlantic trough to give cold LP over UK Mon 7th

GEFS - as yesterday. cool and showery until about Fri 28th, then temp variation in runs either side of he norm, and less rainfall (tough contrary to 16-dayer, more rain in N)

ECM - is the one for optimists; it moves the stalled trough out of the way by Fri 28th followed by a few days of HP from a warm source centred over UK before LP over Europe starts to drift N Tue 1st

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  For here, the most notable aspects of this Spring were the clear skies, the number of frosts and the lack of rain in April.  We had a frost almost every night, although daytime temps weren’t particularly low.  

The same was true of my location as well, Caz.

April was very sunny and dry here, but with notable fewer really warm days compared to numerous other good Aprils we have had here in the past 20 years. The warmest temp we had here last month was 20.5C on the afternoon of the 15th. A number of other days got into the high teens, but the nights were noticeable cooler than we have experienced in April in many recent years.

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I fear you are correct. Whatever happened to those lovely GFS chart we had? Unfortunately they never came closer than a week away which as we all know isn't quite close enough to have any real confidence.

That said, a few days ago the BBC forecasts were quite bullish about a big improvement for next week. That's all gone now.

Not the forecast I have seen " possibly 20c for BH weekend " was the comment 

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Big ?s over the Bank Holiday weekend.

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The BBC forecast on the radio this morning from Sarah Keith Lucas was for a gradual improvement from next Thursday onwards but I have my doubts looking at the current models. This incessant miserable spring rumbles on .....

Big ?s over the Bank Holiday weekend.

  Absolutely!  it is all so finely poised but it will take quite a pattern change to come out of this current unsettled spell

  Absolutely!  it is all so finely poised but it will take quite a pattern change to come out of this current unsettled spell

The trend towards lower pressure is clear. Easiest for me to post the Tweet.

MSLP data table from yesterday's GEFS 06z and today's 00z. Trend for #bankholidayweekend is for high pressure to be LESS influential than was looking likely https://t.co/xAOMBBaftc pic.twitter.com/dcYU9HzkgP

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) May 22, 2021

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Big ?s over the Bank Holiday weekend.

Indeed, when I did my weekly "End Of Week Farmer's Forecast" for my own Cloud Master page on FB where I try to forecast the medium range outlook, it included the Bank Holiday and I really struggled with that. In the end I went for chances of showers over the weekend but hopeful for the holiday Monday to be the better day of the long weekend but don't expect any BBQ-type warmth.

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The BBC forecast on the radio this morning from Sarah Keith Lucas was for a gradual improvement from next Thursday onwards but I have my doubts looking at the current models. This incessant miserable spring rumbles on .....

Wouldn't be surprised the forecast tomorrow morning is to be a very gradual improvement from next Friday

I foresee a gradual improvement with a flabby high winning out for at least 3 days. Hopefully coinciding with the weekend as it migrates slowly across from west to East. I’d expect a low to set up close to English Channel on its wake.

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Much better GFS 6z, but the model is all over the place atm so not sure it's much use.

 

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Much better GFS 6z, but the model is all over the place atm so not sure it's much use.

 

I am standing by ECM at present, not simply because its showing something reasonable, but also for consistency.

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Not the forecast I have seen " possibly 20c for BH weekend " was the comment 

Well the Schaff early this morning made no mention of any improvement for next week while previously they were almost 'promising' it. Was it a BBC forecast you saw?

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What IS causing the Greenlandic High to persist?

This is an interesting question. I have been doing some reading on this subject.

1) The location and strength of tropical convection affects Northern Hemisphere circulation patterns in mysterious ways. It appears that there has been a particularly strong event in the Indian Ocean recently - See James Peacock [is he stormchaser on TWO?] on twitter for more detail

2) Atmospheric Angular Momentum [AAM], a measure of the rotation of the atmosphere around the Earth, has been negative for a lengthy period but is trending positive so some improvement in our weather is expected soon - see Matt Hugo on twitter for more detail

3) Low solar activity may also be playing a part

The good news re tropical convection is that periods of enhanced convection in particular locations tend to be followed by suppressed activity and vice versa.

Just doesn't get better than this 

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Well the Schaff early this morning made no mention of any improvement for next week while previously they were almost 'promising' it. Was it a BBC forecast you saw?

Well it was the BBC News so I guess so , the comment of the BH weekend and warmer temps were the last comments 

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ECM a week today , the Beeb must be going from this 

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First week of June , GFS OP is at the lower end you have to say 

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Whatever happens now, this will be the shortest summer in my lifetime. 

You don't actually feel you have had a respite from winter until you have had at least some of April and May with summer like weather.

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Whatever happens now, this will be the shortest summer in my lifetime. 

You don't actually feel you have had a respite from winter until you have had at least some of April and May with summer like weather.

Unless the weather improves through June and continues warm and sunny until October in which case you could call it a back loaded summer  

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