Talking of Friday, here's the op and the mean for 120 from GFS and GEFS 6z. Spot the difference!

(The answer, of course, is that little low gets smoothed out in the mean - as its position is still far from certain. The overall pattern remains solid, as it has done for days now.)

But OPs are going to be far better at handling little features like this than ensemble members.

 

Definite slap in the face for those that dismissed the ECM OP run. It's all FI at the moment so doesn't really matter. 

I'm sure the ECM ensembles themselves flopped milder a few days ago (posted in here by someone) then the same person posted the link to them flipping colder again. 

Wait for the 06z ens to see what they think.....

At day ten the t850s here are only 18°C lower than at the same time point on the ECM run. 

I've been here long enough to understand the importance of taking into consideration the ensembles but since when did we start dismissing what the operational run's are telling us...asking for a friend ? 

But OPs are going to be far better at handling little features like this than ensemble members.

Not always. That extra detail means nothing if a low blows up in the wrong location...

As I've said before, the important thing is the overall pattern and the ensembles are the best guide for that. While it's not impossible for an entire suite to flip - we have, of course, seen that before - more often than not they don't. I also don't think ANY of the models currently are showing where that low will be at 120.

For an example, here's the T+120 chart from five days ago, the 6z GFS. And on the right, the T+6 chart from today's 0z. Nothing more needs to be said regarding taking a 5-day chart from one op run as gospel, I hope!

I've been here long enough to understand the importance of taking into consideration the ensembles but since when did we start dismissing what the operational run's are telling us...asking for a friend ? 

I’m not dismissing the 06z op run, but I do think it is unlikely to that extreme. 

I've been here long enough to understand the importance of taking into consideration the ensembles but since when did we start dismissing what the operational run's are telling us...asking for a friend ? 

Since 1998 or so, when I first got into this hobby?

(Ensembles. It's what they're for. If the op isn't well supported, as per the 0z ECM in this case, then you note that fact.)

Moaners and doomsters, this is for you. Look, it's all gone off the rails and it's not going to happen!

For everyone else, the 6z GEFS paints a chilly old picture. Every other member has easterlies or NE'lies over the UK at that time and many of them have near gale force winds at that. One thing's for sure - at the moment, things are still looking good for a cold snap, if not spell, in a week's time.

The London mean is colder than on the 0z suite and this 168 mean chart is drool-worthy for snow fans down here at least.

(That comes with a -8C 850 mean, and note the mean trough over the North Sea. That's about as good as you'll see at this range!)

Control run is a thing of beauty 🙂

p 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 also look ok stopped at 9

I've been here long enough to understand the importance of taking into consideration the ensembles but since when did we start dismissing what the operational run's are telling us...asking for a friend ? 

I've been here long enough to know the answer to that - when they don't show what we want !

Derailment, what derailment? 😃 OK... slight IMBY post there! 55cm of lying snow at 240 here, more higher up.

Almost all posts are IMBY, Nick as you've just proved ! It's only natural as we know our own region best. Anyway when was the last time Durham went three years without a flake of snow? 

 

I've been here long enough to know the answer to that - when they don't show what we want !

No, when they are entirely unsupported by all other evidence would be a better answer.

I fully understand why, given past experiences, it is sensible not to dismiss a milder option. It’s more justifiable to somewhat dismiss an unsupported option.

I would love the 06z GFS op run to come to fruition. That doesn’t make me think it is more likely.

And as basing comments on one op run (and ignoring the ensembles) is in fashion, have a look at the GFS(P), which is in effect an op run too. It shows the UK bathed in -8s by 168, with -10s soon to follow, plus that North Sea trough as shown in the ensemble mean.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=168&code=0&mode=1&runpara=1

GFS ens colder too 👍

Mean down to -9 😱👏

Op is at the mild end (phew). Mean down to -8.9C on the 7th. That's what I like - scope for some deterioration and still be good !

Op is at the mild end (phew). Mean down to -8.9C on the 7th. That's what I like - scope for some deterioration and still be good !

Furthermore the main cold cluster is below the mean at that point which is pushed up by the large blip in the op at that point and spurious others. If pattern remains unchanged we could see a -10C in the mean in the coming days.

 

Not just inland, you get a dumping before it turns back to rain.

And to answer the question in my earlier post, in this run at least the Svalbard high migrates SW'wards... which is what you'd expect, given what's happening in the higher layers of our atmosphere. It also provides a firm block against Atlantic lows going where they normally would (NE'wards, dragging their warm sectors across the UK).

 

I think it was late 96, just before the easterly of Jan 97.

Atlantic lows have deviated a great deal from the recent decadal normality in 'dragging their warm sectors NE'wards across the UK' and interestingly for me, from a climate point of view, into the Arctic Basin and as Brian noted last year? - allowing firm blocks to develop.