The Weather Outlook

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moomin75
24 January 2021 17:02:51

Flooding looks to be the main concern during the next 10 days IMO. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Yes, if GFS is on the money. However, GEM is very interesting and I think has performed quite well this winter. A half way house between the two could be REALLY interesting. ECM was trending that way this morning too.

I don't think we've seen the last of the snow yet...and I do feel that March will deliver something significant.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Quantum
24 January 2021 17:05:17

And so the GFS and ICON have swapped places on the 12z.

And so at T+72 hours we still have no idea whether Northern England will be mild with 8C or snowy at 2C.

12Z GFS vs 6Z at 84h. A world of difference.

Netweather GFS Image

Netweather GFS Image

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Brian Gaze
24 January 2021 17:06:09

Arpege is going for a big snow event in much of the country on Thursday. Wow!

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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hobensotwo
24 January 2021 17:07:29
That's quite a cold pool building just to the North East on that gfs op run. Just need a LP to under cut, and we're in business.

There could be some big dippers amongst the ens scatter in FI.

doctormog
24 January 2021 17:09:02
The uncertainty about the extent of the mild air is very clear in the GFS 12z ensemble data. By 00:00 on Friday the t850hPa range here is +4.8°C to -8.9°C (and the range is much smaller before and after).
Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Quantum
24 January 2021 17:10:01

I honestly think the ARPEGE will be right.

Have it so far south I miss out completely. At 51 HOURS how can there be so much uncertainty!

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Joe Bloggs
24 January 2021 17:10:30

Arpege is going for a big snow event in much of the country on Thursday. Wow!

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Lol makes me feel like Doc ;-) 

doctormog
24 January 2021 17:13:49

 

Lol makes me feel like Doc ;-) 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Not sure whether to be honoured or offended. 

If the GFS 12z op run came to fruition the depth of snow in the East Highlands would be remarkable (none here of course) I would expect it to be a bit of a colder outlier later in the ensemble suite.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

CField
24 January 2021 17:32:34

Critical week this week for this (halfwayhouse ) winter....

Chart of the winter for me...

Favourite snowstorm

Famous channel low

Dec 31st 1978

Hastings East Sussex

Foot of level snow severe drifting

Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius

doctormog
24 January 2021 17:44:43

Critical week this week for this (halfwayhouse ) winter....

Chart of the winter for me...

Originally Posted by: CField 

It looks rather unpleasant with lots of cold rain about at that time point. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2021012412/gem-2-150.png?12

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Joe Bloggs
24 January 2021 17:47:37

 

Not sure whether to be honoured or offended. 

If the GFS 12z op run came to fruition the depth of snow in the East Highlands would be remarkable (none here of course) I would expect it to be a bit of a colder outlier later in the ensemble suite.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

haha honoured of course! :D

In terms of the models - lots more chilly weather, chance of marginal snow events with some temporary milder air. Rain around the coasts. Lots of uncertainty. The potential for A LOT of snow over the hills as you say Doc. 

Joe Bloggs
24 January 2021 17:54:13

 

It looks rather unpleasant with lots of cold rain about at that time point. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2021012412/gem-2-150.png?12

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

FWIW this is the corresponding uppers chart. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPEU12_150_2.png

I’d suggest a fair bit of snow too. 

squish
24 January 2021 18:04:10
Ukmo looks very promising at +144
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Quantum
24 January 2021 18:26:47

ECM more similar to ARPEGE. This  is Wednesday. ECM would offer the potential for a disruptive snow event.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Joe Bloggs
24 January 2021 18:30:10

12z ECM t+144

A bit of hope for the Kent crew? 

Snow Hoper
24 January 2021 18:31:16

12z ECM t+144

A bit of hope for the Kent crew? 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Think the Para has something similar happening.

Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.

Home : Mid Suffolk.

48m Asl

moomin75
24 January 2021 18:31:32

12z ECM t+144

A bit of hope for the Kent crew? 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

It seems to me at this stage to be GEM/ECM/UKMO v GFS.

The first three are bringing cold back fairly soon. Exciting times ahead.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

White Meadows
24 January 2021 18:35:03
CFS (albeit poorly respected) now showing a freezing February 🥶

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/euT2mMonInd1.gif 

Joe Bloggs
24 January 2021 18:36:59

It seems to me at this stage to be GEM/ECM/UKMO v GFS.

The first three are bringing cold back fairly soon. Exciting times ahead.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

It certainly looks tonight that mild weather will be short lived and may not arrive at all in the north. 

LOTS to keep us on our toes over the next week - marginal being a key word. Potentially a fair bit of snow in central areas especially with altitude. 

White Meadows
24 January 2021 18:37:19

.

Brian Gaze
24 January 2021 18:38:12

GEFS35 also suggesting below average temps for much of Feb.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850temp_35day&lglocation=London&charthour=006&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM)

 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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White Meadows
24 January 2021 18:41:07

GEFS35 also suggesting below average temps for much of Feb.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850temp_35day&lglocation=London&charthour=006&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM)

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Control screams topplers to me

That would fit with Met office mid-late Feb narrative also 

 

moomin75
24 January 2021 18:55:02
ECM goes a bit "meh" past 144hrs but interesting before then.
Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Karl Guille
24 January 2021 19:04:33
Personally I don't think that it would take much of a switch to see colder conditions extending across a wider part of the UK in the coming week to 10 days! GEM 12z is a case in point.
St. Sampson

Guernsey

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