I’ve gone boringly average again.  Was sorely tempted by the turn of the month cold outlook then remembered it always foxes us.  Plus, I didn’t want to jinx our chance of cold and snow. 

I’ve gone boringly average again.  Was sorely tempted by the turn of the month cold outlook then remembered it always foxes us.  Plus, I didn’t want to jinx our chance of cold and snow. 

Well I did jinx it. 

Met Office Hadley            4.8c         Anomaly     -0.4c Provisional to 3rd.

Metcheck                         4.35c       Anomaly     -0.64c

Netweather                      4.7c         Anomaly     -0.41c

Peasedown St John        5.7c         Anomaly       -1.0c. 

Met Office Hadley          4.5c        Anomaly      -0.9c Provisional to 4th

Metcheck                       4.05c       Anomaly      -0.95c

Netweather                    4.41c       Anomaly      -0.7c

Peasedown                5.3c           Anomaly        -14c.  

Met Office Hadley            4.5c        Anomaly     -0.8c. Provisional to 5th

Metcheck                          3.83c      Anomaly     -1.16c

Netweather                       4.33c      Anomaly     -0.78c

Peasedown St John          5.0c        Anomaly      -1.7c.

The GFS 00z demonstrated how rapidly things can shift about in December.

The provisional CET's currently near 1.5°C below the average of the past few decades, but in a rough projection forward using the raw figures from the model, milder weather starting late this week neutralises the anomaly by 14th... and then it climbs well beyond, peaking at about 1°C above average for 19th-20th!

Then, in a further twist to the tale, an Arctic High pounces and bitterly cold easterlies start hammering away at the CET - yet as of run's end on 22nd, it's still about 0.5°C above average.

The actual figures would likely be a few tenths lower, mind, due to the tendency for the provisional figures to be an overestimate.

Anyway - this run involves an Arctic High behaving in the right way to send a deeply cold airmass our way, which makes it inherently low probability. Not saying it can't happen, mind - certain factors are in support of Arctic Highs being able to influence the weather on our side of the hemisphere to some extent or other.

Met Office Hadley          4.3c        Anomaly      -1.0c Provisional to 6th

Metcheck                       3.53c      Anomaly      -1.46c

Netweather                    4.09c      Anomaly      -1.02c

Peasedown St John       4.8c        Anomaly      -1.9c.  

Met Office Hadley        4.0c       Anomaly     -1.1c Provisional to 7th

Metcheck                     3.15c     Anomaly     -1.84c

Netweather                  3.71c     Anomaly     -1.4c.

Peasedown St John     4.5c       Anomaly      -2.2c.        

Met Office Hadley          3.9c      Anomaly      -1.2c Provisional to 8th

Metcheck                       3.32c    Anomaly        -1.67c

Netweather                    3.64c    Anomaly        -1.47c

Peasedown st John       4.0c.     Anomaly        -2.7c 

Met Office Hadley          3.9c      Anomaly      -1.2c Provisional to 8th

Metcheck                       3.32c    Anomaly        -1.67c

Netweather                    3.64c    Anomaly        -1.47c

Peasedown st John       4.0c.     Anomaly        -2.7c 

Have to interject to mark the close proximity of the current CET to my monthly guess. As ever, my cold preference (/bias) has sabotaged my chances in a winter month!

Here's to a severe Christmas blast to 1) keep us all safe and warm at home and 2) help me out substantially!

 

Have to interject to mark the close proximity of the current CET to my monthly guess. As ever, my cold preference (/bias) has sabotaged my chances in a winter month!

Here's to a severe Christmas blast to 1) keep us all safe and warm at home and 2) help me out substantially!

I'll be plummeting down the table I think 

Met Office Hadley        3.9c        Anomaly        -1.1c provisional to 9th

Metcheck                     3.44c      Anomaly         -1.55c

Netweather                  3.84c      Anomaly         -1.27c

Peasedown St John      4.1c      Anomaly         -2.6c.

Met Office Hadley         4.1c       Anomaly      0.9c Provisional to 10th

Metcheck                       3.75c     Anomaly      -1.24c

Netweather                    4.11c     Anomaly      -1.0c

Peasedown St John      5.1c       Anomaly       -1.6c.    

Met Office Hadley       4.5c.      Anomaly      -0.c Provisional to 11th.

Metcheck                    4.07c     Anomaly      -0.92c

Netweather                 4.92c     Anomaly      -0.62c

Peasedown St John    5.5c      Anomaly      -1.2c.      

I went for 4.9c, which could be too low judging by the current output.  

Met Office Hadley        4.7c      Anomaly     -0.2c Provisional to 12th

Metcheck                     4.14c    Anomaly     -0.8c

Netweather                  4.7c      Anomaly     -0.41c

Peasedown St John     5.5c      Anomaly      -1.2c.      

The CET really can rocket with seemingly little effort in the winter months.

By my rough estimate, the GFS 12z has it climbing into the 6s °C by 21st! Other runs today have been in the same ballpark.

Runs have also tended to feature a northerly incursion around 25th, but by this point it's just mitigating the damages, the CET only falling to the mid-5s °C using the latest run, for example. Ones that manage to transition the northerly to an easterly are taking it down into the low 5s or even high 4s, but if I'm honest, that looks like a but of a carrot-dangle to me!

The table of estimates for this month will be interesting when it's revealed. I need the CET to finish only 0.27°C above the latest provisional figure... not impossible but starting to look a bit of a long shot!

I think I went 2.9c. Ever the optimist...

Met Office Hadley         4.8c      Anomaly   -0.1c Provisional to 13th.

Metcheck                               4.50c      Anomaly        -0.50c

Netweather                             4.9c       Anomaly        -0.21c

Peasedown St John              5.9c        Anomaly       -0.8c.