Met Office Hadley           10.78c.         Anomaly        -0.5c Provisional to 20th

Metcheck                        10.26c          Anomaly        -0.25c

Netweather                     10.72c          Anomaly         0.33c

Peasedown St John       10.55c         Anomaly         0.08c. 

Met Office Hadley          10.8c          Anomaly        -0.3c Provisional to 21st

Metcheck                       10.35c        Anomaly        -0.16c

Netweather                    10.87c        Anomaly        0.48c

Peasedown St John       10.5c         Anomaly         0.3c 

Met Office Hadley           10.9c        Anomaly      -0.2c Provisional to 22nd

Metcheck                        10.33c      Anomaly      -0.18c

Netweather                     10. 89c     Anomaly      0.5c

Peasedown St John       10.6c         Anomaly       0.13c.  

Met Office Hadley         10.8c        Anomaly     -0.2c Provisional to 23rd

Metcheck                       10.28c     Anomaly     -0.23c

Netweather                    10.86c     Anomaly      0.46c

Peasedown St John      10.7c       Anomaly      0.23c. 

The next few days look a little on the cool side before it turns very mild in the last couple of days of the month. 

October CET still expected to finish close to 10.5C

Incidentally the first week of November is currently looking very mild indeed.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Met Office Hadley         10.8c        Anomaly       -0.2c Provisional to 24th

Metcheck                      10.28c      Anomaly       -0.23c

Netweather                   10.87       Anomaly        0.48c

Peasedown St John      10.28c     Anomaly        -0.19c    

Bit miffed at the MJO waking up, against the norm for a La Nina October, so interfering with the pattern... but what can you do?

It's the sort of shorter-timescale variation that will always limit long-range forecasting capabilities beyond the broad direction of travel across 3+ weeks at a time.

The final two days really are looking mild at the moment - GFS 12z for example averages in the mid-teens, raising my rough CET estimate from 10.4 to 10.65°C!

Typical adjustments would then leave us in the ballpark of GW's latest estimate.

Met Office Hadley           10.7c         Anomaly       -0.2c Provisional to 25th

Metcheck                        10.19c       Anomaly       -0.32c

Netweather                      10.81c       Anomaly       0.42c

Peasedown St John        10.65c        Anomaly        0.18c.     

Met Office Hadley           10.6c          Anomaly       -0.2c Provisional to 26th

Metcheck                        10.13c        Anomaly       -0.38c

Netweather                     10.74c        Anomaly       0.35c 

Peasedown St John       10.3c         Anomaly        -0.17c.

Met Office Hadley         10.6c       Anomaly     -0.1c Provisional to 27th

Metcheck                      10.7c       Anomaly       -0.44c

Netweather                   10.69c     Anomaly        0.29c

Peasedown St John      10.3c       Anomaly       -0.17c 

Met Office Hadley        10.6c      Anomaly     -0.1c Provisional to 28th

Metcheck                     10.00c    Anomaly     -0.51c

Netweather                  10.63c    Anomaly     0.24c

Peasedown St John     10.0c      Anomaly     -0.02c

Met Office Hadley       10.6c        Anomaly     -0.0c Provisional to29th

Metcheck                     10.12c     Anomaly     -0.39c

Netweather                  10.66c     Anomaly      0.27c 

Peasedown St John      10.45c    Anomaly      -0.02c    

Expecting the CET to end up around 10.38C this month which is bang in line with the 1971-2000 mean but a little below 1981-2010.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Met Office Hadley         10.6c      Anomaly     0.1c Provisional to 30th

Metcheck                      10.23c    Anomaly     -0.28c

Netweather                   10.78c    Anomaly     0.38c

Peasedown St John      10.2c      Anomaly     -0.27c.

10.54C is the final CET for October

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2020

Dingle Rob is the winner this month with 10.60C, just ahead of Artzeman with 10.47C.

Nice to see my figure got somewhere at last. Well done Dingle Rob.

Well that's a first! Thanks everyone.

Rob 

Well that's a first! Thanks everyone.

Rob