16-dayer:: Contrast between W Europe (cool and wet) and E Europe (warm and dry) maintained for the full two weeks. Boundary roughly a line running from Greece to Finland.
Fax shows most detail for the near future (but see discussion now warming up on the Storm 1st/5th Oct thread); 995mb E Scotland today, 971mb Brittany Fri, 986mb Belgium Sat, 974mb Kent Sun, 987mb Yorkshire Mon, with fronts moving up from the S at first, later in from the E and returning S. Obviously a lot of rain and wind.
GFS keeps the current LP centre a bit further W i.e. over central England until Mon 5th after which filling. New storm to W of Scotland Thu 8th 970mb, moving to Shetland and then filling N Sea Sun 11th; its remnants then track down to Biscay while ridge of HP extends W-E across Scotland Wed 14tth. The remnants are revived in association with more LP on the Atlantic generating S-ly winds for all Sat 17th. Not much related to yesterday's forecast so low confidence.
GEFS temps dipping from seasonal average to cool around Sun 11th and rising (with a lot of variations) again by Sat 17th with mean of runs back to norm. Much rain Thu 1st - Mon 5th (3rd - 5th in N England and Scotland) and intermittently thereafter
ECM agrees with GFS re current storm but dramatically different by Thu 8th with HP over Atlantic -no trace of a storm, just slack LP continuing over an area from UK to Norway and this persisting to Sun 11th
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl