The Weather Outlook

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superteacher
12 August 2020 22:30:36
Ironically, 1961 did contain the hottest day of the entire 1960’s, at 33.9 - which has just been surpassed six times in six days!
Rob K
13 August 2020 05:31:35
http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/weatherdata/Reading_daily_AWS_graphs.html 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Saint Snow
13 August 2020 09:19:46

Current temps in NW England (western fringes, too, largely) competing with the extreme SE for warmest - that doesn't happen very often!

Keswick - 22c

Blackpool - 23c

Liverpool - 23c

Hawarden - 23c

Woodvale - 25c

 

We're forecast to get to 28c today, but can see another 30c

 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Saint Snow
13 August 2020 12:26:39

Some huge temp differentials across pretty small distances.

The hottest two places I can find (per XC Weather) are Bournemouth Airport and Woodvale (between Liverpool & Southport), both at 28c.

Yet within 50 miles of these, there's places struggling to get to 20c (Portland, Leek), whilst London City is at 27c and Stanstead 20c.

Is cloud the issue? We've had unbroken sunshine all morning, but I can see a lot of cloud to our east.


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

marco 79
13 August 2020 12:39:03
Looks like some parts of Devon could be the hottest areas..

Exeter currently at 29c


Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
Tim A
13 August 2020 12:41:55

Some huge temp differentials across pretty small distances.

The hottest two places I can find (per XC Weather) are Bournemouth Airport and Woodvale (between Liverpool & Southport), both at 28c.

Yet within 50 miles of these, there's places struggling to get to 20c (Portland, Leek), whilst London City is at 27c and Stanstead 20c.

Is cloud the issue? We've had unbroken sunshine all morning, but I can see a lot of cloud to our east.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Cloud and if you are unlucky, worse, fog and mist and general North sea rubbish! Then there are some areas which have had their murk interrupted by showers.

16.6c here, dry, misty, around 2-3 miles visibility.

Looking on Wunderground it looks toasty West of the M6, Preston 25C, then declining 21C Blackburn, 19-20C Burnley and 17-18C by the time you get over these parts.

Met Office going for 30c in their text forecast for Yorkshire which is laughable, although the automated forecasts have never shown more than 22c and that was factoring in sun since this morning. 

 

 


Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

Hungry Tiger
13 August 2020 12:51:51

Picking brains chaps.

How does this past 7 days CET wise rank with any of the hottest 7 day periods on record.

I.e. How does this compare with the likes of July 2006, August 2003, August 1995, June/July 1976.

This most recent one - it must be well up there give the fact we had so many nights over 20C and 21C.

 


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Saint Snow
13 August 2020 12:54:48

 

Cloud and if you are unlucky, worse, fog and mist and general North sea rubbish! Then there are some areas which have had their murk interrupted by showers.

16.6c here, dry, misty, around 2-3 miles visibility.

Looking on Wunderground it looks toasty West of the M6, Preston 25C, then declining 21C Blackburn, 19-20C Burnley and 17-18C by the time you get over these parts.

Met Office going for 30c in their text forecast for Yorkshire which is laughable, although the automated forecasts have never shown more than 22c and that was factoring in sun since this morning. 

 

 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 

 

The crap from the East is now here and it's clouded over. 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
13 August 2020 13:00:10

Picking brains chaps.

How does this past 7 days CET wise rank with any of the hottest 7 day periods on record.

I.e. How does this compare with the likes of July 2006, August 2003, August 1995, June/July 1976.

This most recent one - it must be well up there give the fact we had so many nights over 20C and 21C.

 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

Good question, and I'm sure the data are there somewhere but whilst we have records for warmest day, warmest month and warmest year we nobody bothers keeping note of weeks let along concurrent 8 day periods. I don't think August 1995 or July 2006 would come close as there was only 1 day anywhere near 35C in either of them, and the maxes were more often between 30 and 33. Nights in 1995 were not that hot either. And both were more extended hot months rather than very intense hot weeks.

So it's between this event and 2003 / 1976. My instinct is that while 1976 might get close on a CET basis given the heat this time was really in the SE for most days, it would be behind 2020 if we looked at a single sight e.g. Heathrow, Herstmonceux, Kew or the SE region. 1976 was also longer, so the heat wasn't so concentrated in a short period of time. 2003 on the other hand was just over a week long and might pip this one because we also had high humidity and warm nights, as well as the record day. Would be interesting to see.

 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
picturesareme
13 August 2020 13:18:09

Picking brains chaps.

How does this past 7 days CET wise rank with any of the hottest 7 day periods on record.

I.e. How does this compare with the likes of July 2006, August 2003, August 1995, June/July 1976.

This most recent one - it must be well up there give the fact we had so many nights over 20C and 21C.

 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

1911 probably still tops it..

https://www.google.com/amp/s/notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/07/30/the-great-british-heatwave-of-1911/amp/

 

Chidog
13 August 2020 13:31:02

1-7 July 1976 had a CET of 23.54C. That will take some beating! The last five days of June were all also above 22C!

The best spell of 2003, 4-10 August, comes in at a 'mere' 22.3C.

2006 had a seven day spell averaging 21.9C.

The provisional for the last seven days is 21.7, this could be too low though and time to improve on last Thursday's figure today given the warm nights.

Rob K
13 August 2020 13:34:43

 

Good question, and I'm sure the data are there somewhere but whilst we have records for warmest day, warmest month and warmest year we nobody bothers keeping note of weeks let along concurrent 8 day periods. I don't think August 1995 or July 2006 would come close as there was only 1 day anywhere near 35C in either of them, and the maxes were more often between 30 and 33. Nights in 1995 were not that hot either. And both were more extended hot months rather than very intense hot weeks.

So it's between this event and 2003 / 1976. My instinct is that while 1976 might get close on a CET basis given the heat this time was really in the SE for most days, it would be behind 2020 if we looked at a single sight e.g. Heathrow, Herstmonceux, Kew or the SE region. 1976 was also longer, so the heat wasn't so concentrated in a short period of time. 2003 on the other hand was just over a week long and might pip this one because we also had high humidity and warm nights, as well as the record day. Would be interesting to see.

 

Originally Posted by: TimS 

 

Yes I think if you purely take the highest max and min anywhere in the UK and average them, this past week could be the hottest ever. But the heat was largely concentrated in the SE so it won't be top dog on a national or CET basis.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
13 August 2020 13:58:00

Odd day today. I walked outside just now and it was properly hot, not as much as yesterday but nearly. But my closest station London City airport is showing just 27C. Just a very muggy and stuffy 27C.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
13 August 2020 14:15:32

Odd day today. I walked outside just now and it was properly hot, not as much as yesterday but nearly. But my closest station London City airport is showing just 27C. Just a very muggy and stuffy 27C.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Very different feel here today. Very grey and murky with a few spells of hazy sunshine. Temperatures struggling up to about 24C so far. It's the sort of day where if the skies cleared, the temperature could shoot up. 


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Brian Gaze
13 August 2020 14:17:28

Odd day today. I walked outside just now and it was properly hot, not as much as yesterday but nearly. But my closest station London City airport is showing just 27C. Just a very muggy and stuffy 27C.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Max here 24.1C so far. If temps keep dropping at the same rate for the next 2 days we'll be looking at snow on Sunday. 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Saint Snow
13 August 2020 14:33:41

Looks like some parts of Devon could be the hottest areas..
Exeter currently at 29c

Originally Posted by: marco 79 

 

 

What are you see that on? 

I only tend to use XC Weather (as I can easily remember it!) but is there a better site that lists the hottest current temps?


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Saint Snow
13 August 2020 14:36:47

1-7 July 1976 had a CET of 23.54C. That will take some beating! The last five days of June were all also above 22C!

The best spell of 2003, 4-10 August, comes in at a 'mere' 22.3C.

2006 had a seven day spell averaging 21.9C.

The provisional for the last seven days is 21.7, this could be too low though and time to improve on last Thursday's figure today given the warm nights.

Originally Posted by: Chidog 

 

I think that reflects how more widespread some of those previous hot spells were. We're only a bit more than halfway up England, but the temps took until yesterday to hit 30c and during that Friday-Monday period, were maxing at 23/24c and dropping to mid-teens overnight. 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
13 August 2020 15:27:35
So, was this heatwave "the one"? No I don't think so. Not yet.

I'd been thinking over the last 3 or 4 years that sooner or later we would have a heatwave in the UK that is extreme both in severity and duration. Not just because of some statistical supposition based on climate change and the shifting of the bell curve, but because the models have shown a number of such events, at least once or twice per summer and across multiple runs not just one freakish ensemble perturbation.

Compared with some runs even earlier this summer, this heatwave while certainly unusually hot fell quite a long way short. I think that is reflected in the fact that we still didn't get to anything like the duration or countrywide nature of the heat of July 1976 or for that matter August 2003 (let alone the month long heat of 1976, 2006, 1995, 1997).

2018 was not the one either. It was persistently very dry and sunny, and pretty warm/hot, but without any real sustained period of major heatwave. There were some runs in late July 2018 which if they'd come to fruition would have sent that summer squarely into the record books with a very hot August, but they never came to pass. Instead it got cooler and wetter.

Areas where August 2020 fell short in terms of synoptics / airmass:

- Pressure was never that high meaning there was always a lot of cloud around

- the source airmass, while hot, was nowhere near as hot as in say June or July last year. France's canicule this year was decent but nothing special. We spent several days in 850s of upper teens, which is enough for very hot weather, but I have seen many runs taking us to 21 or 22C and staying there for a few days

- on most days the hot air never made it that far into the UK. Contrast with 2018 when the hottest place was Porthmadog 3 days in a row. This was largely an event of the far South East

- it wasn't combined with a long standing drought

Either those runs that occasionally turn up on the models are just makebelieve, or "the one" will happen at some point in the next decade. This feels like it was a warm up.

Still, it is great finally to get some proper hot weather in August. It's been so long, August has become a real anomaly among months.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
RobR
  • RobR
  • Advanced Member
13 August 2020 15:46:43

So, was this heatwave "the one"? No I don't think so. Not yet.

I'd been thinking over the last 3 or 4 years that sooner or later we would have a heatwave in the UK that is extreme both in severity and duration. Not just because of some statistical supposition based on climate change and the shifting of the bell curve, but because the models have shown a number of such events, at least once or twice per summer and across multiple runs not just one freakish ensemble perturbation.

Compared with some runs even earlier this summer, this heatwave while certainly unusually hot fell quite a long way short. I think that is reflected in the fact that we still didn't get to anything like the duration or countrywide nature of the heat of July 1976 or for that matter August 2003 (let alone the month long heat of 1976, 2006, 1995, 1997).

2018 was not the one either. It was persistently very dry and sunny, and pretty warm/hot, but without any real sustained period of major heatwave. There were some runs in late July 2018 which if they'd come to fruition would have sent that summer squarely into the record books with a very hot August, but they never came to pass. Instead it got cooler and wetter.

Areas where August 2020 fell short in terms of synoptics / airmass:

- Pressure was never that high meaning there was always a lot of cloud around
- the source airmass, while hot, was nowhere near as hot as in say June or July last year. France's canicule this year was decent but nothing special. We spent several days in 850s of upper teens, which is enough for very hot weather, but I have seen many runs taking us to 21 or 22C and staying there for a few days
- on most days the hot air never made it that far into the UK. Contrast with 2018 when the hottest place was Porthmadog 3 days in a row. This was largely an event of the far South East
- it wasn't combined with a long standing drought

Either those runs that occasionally turn up on the models are just makebelieve, or "the one" will happen at some point in the next decade. This feels like it was a warm up.

Still, it is great finally to get some proper hot weather in August. It's been so long, August has become a real anomaly among months.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


Excellent summary of this spell 


Winter 23/24 in Nantwich

Days Snow Falling: 4

Days Snow Lying: 1

Deepest Snowfall: 3rd December 23 (2cm)

Winter 22/23 in Nantwich

Days Snow Falling: 4

Days Snow Lying: 2

Deepest Snowfall: 10th March (3cm)

Latest Snowfall: 10th March

Winter 21/22 in Nantwich

Days Snow Falling: 3

Days Snow Lying: 1

Deepest Snowfall: 28th November (3cm)

Latest Snowfall: 31st March

Winter 20/21 in Solihull

Days Snow Falling: 21

Days Snow Lying: 8

Deepest Snowfall: 24th January (9cm)

Latest Snowfall: 12th April

Winter 19/20 in Stoke

Days Snow Falling: 5

Days Snow Lying: 2

Deepest Snowfall: 10th Feb (5cm)

Winter 18/19 in Stoke

Days Snow Falling: 6

Days Snow Lying: 6

Deepest Snowfall: 29th Jan (3cm)

Winter 17/18 in Stoke

Days Snow Falling: 27

Days Snow Lying: 24

Deepest Snowfall: 18th March 2018 (10cm)

Saint Snow
13 August 2020 15:54:38

So, was this heatwave "the one"? No I don't think so. Not yet.

I'd been thinking over the last 3 or 4 years that sooner or later we would have a heatwave in the UK that is extreme both in severity and duration. Not just because of some statistical supposition based on climate change and the shifting of the bell curve, but because the models have shown a number of such events, at least once or twice per summer and across multiple runs not just one freakish ensemble perturbation.

Compared with some runs even earlier this summer, this heatwave while certainly unusually hot fell quite a long way short. I think that is reflected in the fact that we still didn't get to anything like the duration or countrywide nature of the heat of July 1976 or for that matter August 2003 (let alone the month long heat of 1976, 2006, 1995, 1997).

2018 was not the one either. It was persistently very dry and sunny, and pretty warm/hot, but without any real sustained period of major heatwave. There were some runs in late July 2018 which if they'd come to fruition would have sent that summer squarely into the record books with a very hot August, but they never came to pass. Instead it got cooler and wetter.

Areas where August 2020 fell short in terms of synoptics / airmass:

- Pressure was never that high meaning there was always a lot of cloud around
- the source airmass, while hot, was nowhere near as hot as in say June or July last year. France's canicule this year was decent but nothing special. We spent several days in 850s of upper teens, which is enough for very hot weather, but I have seen many runs taking us to 21 or 22C and staying there for a few days
- on most days the hot air never made it that far into the UK. Contrast with 2018 when the hottest place was Porthmadog 3 days in a row. This was largely an event of the far South East
- it wasn't combined with a long standing drought

Either those runs that occasionally turn up on the models are just makebelieve, or "the one" will happen at some point in the next decade. This feels like it was a warm up.

Still, it is great finally to get some proper hot weather in August. It's been so long, August has become a real anomaly among months.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

 

 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Rob K
13 August 2020 16:08:31
A disappointing end to the heatwave as the models suggested that East Anglia could hang on to 30-31C heat today but it's been nowhere near. eg Norwich airport topped out at 24C.

I think a couple of official stations have made it to 28C, Exeter airport had 29C on a METAR too but seems nowhere will make it an eighth 30C day.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Retron
13 August 2020 17:56:04


I think a couple of official stations have made it to 28C, Exeter airport had 29C on a METAR too but seems nowhere will make it an eighth 30C day.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Today's highest temperature was 29.8°C in Porthmadog, Wales

https://twitter.com/metoffice

(So unless a manual one pops up, it was a case of close but not quite.)

 


Leysdown, north Kent
Jiries
13 August 2020 19:31:30

A disappointing end to the heatwave as the models suggested that East Anglia could hang on to 30-31C heat today but it's been nowhere near. eg Norwich airport topped out at 24C.

I think a couple of official stations have made it to 28C, Exeter airport had 29C on a METAR too but seems nowhere will make it an eighth 30C day.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

The unexpected cloud cover had prevented anywhere to reach 30C  since we had warm night but gone wasted.  Don't know why it been so cloudy in between storms? should be clear skies like other counties does.   

14 August 2020 08:50:28

Picking brains chaps.

How does this past 7 days CET wise rank with any of the hottest 7 day periods on record.

I.e. How does this compare with the likes of July 2006, August 2003, August 1995, June/July 1976.

This most recent one - it must be well up there give the fact we had so many nights over 20C and 21C.

 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

I had a look at this both from the perspective of the maximum CET and the mean CET.

I have not done a full scrub of all the data as I don't have time. But taking a look at the obvious candidates for the warmest weekly periods I came up with the following.

The data does show a difference between maximum and mean temperatures. The maximum data for the CET area as a whole is nowhere near a record and well below 1995, 2003 and 2006. The high maximums were in the SE of England this past week.

However, the mean temperature is more comparable to previous heatwaves with only 1-7 Jul 1976 being substantially warmer.

Highest 7 day CET maximums

1-7 Jul 1976                  31.5C
29 Jul - 4 Aug 1995        29.6C
24-30 Jun 1976             29.2C
16-22 Jul 2006               29.1C
4-10 Aug 2003               28.8C
6-12 Aug 2020             28.3C

[8-14 Aug 1911               27.9C]

 

Highest 7 day CET means

1-7 Jul 1976                    23.5C
29 Jul - 4 Aug 1995         22.7C
5-11 Aug 2003                22.3C
6-12 Aug 2020               22.3C
17-23 Jul 2006                21.9C
24-30 Jun 1976               21.7C

[8-14 Aug 1911               21.1C]

lanky
14 August 2020 11:53:17

The hottest 7 day spell at my location (Kew) was between Thursday 6th to Wednesday 12th August this week.

Comparing this to the daily record of the maximum temperature in the 5km Grid (1961-2018) supplied by the Met Office containing Kew shows that only 1 other 7 day period was hotter - and that being 6th to 12th August (by coincidence) 2003.

The 2003 spell came out at an average maximum of 33.7C compared to 33.3C for this week

However, the former is "spot" maximum temperature whereas the 2020 data I have is hourly maxima (I don't have the "Spot" data for Kew Gardens last week) so my guess is that the 2020 spell would probably  nudeg ahead as the hottest since 1961

shown below

 


Martin

Richmond, Surrey

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