The Weather Outlook

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The Beast from the East
Monday, August 10, 2020 8:17:20 AM

 

My house is like an oven. But when your chasing a record, you have the grin and bare it 🤣🤣

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Hang on, what about Granny in the care home? This is more likely to kill her than Covid

 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

The Beast from the East
Monday, August 10, 2020 8:19:50 AM

Current watch level: Level 3 - Heatwave Action

Issued at: 08:35 on Mon 10 Aug 2020

There is a 90 % probability of Heat-Health criteria being met between 0900 on Monday and 0900 on Friday in parts of England.

 

 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

I suppose there would be political consequences for a Level 4. Emergency service leave cancelled, Cobra meetings etc.

So pressure not to do it.

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Rob K
Monday, August 10, 2020 8:19:56 AM

 

In terms of diurnal temperature ranges you are competing with something like -20C on a cold winter night and +13C on the SW side of a warm front.

So maybe a degree or so shy of the record if I had to guess?

I can't imagine a diurnal range much above 33C though.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Rickmansworth managed a 28.3C range at a single location in 1936: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/research/library-and-archive/library/publications/historical-weather-factsheets/greatest-temperature-range---29-august-1936.pdf

Looks like Altnaharra managed 28.9C in Dec 1995: https://www.trevorharley.com/1995.html

 

But I can't find any stats for UK-wide records. I guess a good starting point would be to look at the coldest winter days and see what the max was.

 

Edit: 30 Dec 1995 has to be a contender, with minimum of -27.2C (but according to the Daily Weather Summary it was -27.0) and a max in the Isles of Scilly of +12.4C, giving a range of 39.6C!

See p 118 here: https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/IO_ff2c7b76-21a9-4e98-ae77-1b1d73e68ceb/

 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

The Beast from the East
Monday, August 10, 2020 8:22:34 AM

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

briggsy6
Monday, August 10, 2020 8:27:15 AM

Just imagine the wrist slitting in here if today's maximum ended up as 33.9c!! (Unlikely I think as Carol Kirkwood was going for 34c or 35c on BBC breakfast earlier).

Location: Uxbridge
Rob K
Monday, August 10, 2020 8:30:00 AM
Looks like the Weathercast site is having problems - last station updates were at 7am. It's usually one of the fastest places to get hourly updates from.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
Monday, August 10, 2020 8:33:44 AM

 

I suppose there would be political consequences for a Level 4. Emergency service leave cancelled, Cobra meetings etc.

So pressure not to do it.

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Given all that has happened over the past few months, a few extra measures would be trivial.

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

warrenb
Monday, August 10, 2020 8:34:42 AM
A very horrible 25c at 9:30 this morning
Tonbridge 45m 
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
Monday, August 10, 2020 8:35:44 AM

 

Rickmansworth managed a 28.3C range at a single location in 1936: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/research/library-and-archive/library/publications/historical-weather-factsheets/greatest-temperature-range---29-august-1936.pdf

Looks like Altnaharra managed 28.9C in Dec 1995: https://www.trevorharley.com/1995.html

 

But I can't find any stats for UK-wide records. I guess a good starting point would be to look at the coldest winter days and see what the max was.

 

Edit: 30 Dec 1995 has to be a contender, with minimum of -27.2C (but according to the Daily Weather Summary it was -27.0) and a max in the Isles of Scilly of +12.4C, giving a range of 39.6C!

See p 118 here: https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/IO_ff2c7b76-21a9-4e98-ae77-1b1d73e68ceb/

 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Recording both the lowest min and the highest max on the same day must be exceptionally rare!

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Rob K
Monday, August 10, 2020 8:37:14 AM
A couple of showers have sprung up on the radar just to the north of here, around Wokingham. Bone dry here but the skies have a pretty unstable look to them.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Quantum
Monday, August 10, 2020 8:44:41 AM

 

Rickmansworth managed a 28.3C range at a single location in 1936: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/research/library-and-archive/library/publications/historical-weather-factsheets/greatest-temperature-range---29-august-1936.pdf

Looks like Altnaharra managed 28.9C in Dec 1995: https://www.trevorharley.com/1995.html

 

But I can't find any stats for UK-wide records. I guess a good starting point would be to look at the coldest winter days and see what the max was.

 

Edit: 30 Dec 1995 has to be a contender, with minimum of -27.2C (but according to the Daily Weather Summary it was -27.0) and a max in the Isles of Scilly of +12.4C, giving a range of 39.6C!

See p 118 here: https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/IO_ff2c7b76-21a9-4e98-ae77-1b1d73e68ceb/

 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Lol that's ridiculous.

And yes I think its pretty much impossible to beat.

Assuming we got to 38C would require a min of around -2C

Basically the hottest it can possibly get and the coldest it can possibly get in August both happening at the same time!

In winter apparantely only one of those has to be true.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Darren S
Monday, August 10, 2020 8:44:42 AM

A couple of showers have sprung up on the radar just to the north of here, around Wokingham. Bone dry here but the skies have a pretty unstable look to them.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

We just had some big spots of rain fall, but my daughter's at Crowthorne Tennis Centre this morning and it looks like they got a direct hit. 

Currently 21.6C here, maximum so far today was at midnight!

Darren

Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)

South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:

2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm

Quantum
Monday, August 10, 2020 8:45:52 AM

 

Recording both the lowest min and the highest max on the same day must be exceptionally rare!

Originally Posted by: Col 

Its not that rare actually. Happens quite alot in E Scotland in March-May where you get the coldest nights and also end up being the warmest spot.

Aviemore and Inverness seem to do it quite alot in Spring.

 

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Heavy Weather 2013
Monday, August 10, 2020 8:53:59 AM

Temperatures seem to be responding more quickly today. But the day is fraught with danger I fear.

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

briggsy6
Monday, August 10, 2020 8:57:08 AM

A couple of showers have sprung up on the radar just to the north of here, around Wokingham. Bone dry here but the skies have a pretty unstable look to them.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Looks like today's showers aren't going to be confined just to Western areas then. Carol: you're forecast is going pete tong already!

 

Location: Uxbridge
Quantum
Monday, August 10, 2020 9:02:53 AM

Temperatures seem to be responding more quickly today. But the day is fraught with danger I fear.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

With low pressure dominating, I think the minimax record is the one to watch.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

The Beast from the East
Monday, August 10, 2020 9:05:07 AM

Somebody mentioned yesterday about heat outflow ahead of T Storms. Could well be factor to help boost the temps at least temporarily

 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Sevendust
Monday, August 10, 2020 9:06:08 AM

A couple of showers have sprung up on the radar just to the north of here, around Wokingham. Bone dry here but the skies have a pretty unstable look to them.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Indeed - storm near Reading. Nice cunims visible from Basingstoke. Clear behind it though

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
Monday, August 10, 2020 9:16:57 AM

Recording both the lowest min and the highest max on the same day must be exceptionally rare!

Originally Posted by: Col 

Indeed I read it as that but we've all done it I guess.

 

Miss typing that is.

Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Quantum
Monday, August 10, 2020 9:20:28 AM

Somebody mentioned yesterday about heat outflow ahead of T Storms. Could well be factor to help boost the temps at least temporarily

 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Well there is this

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_burst

They are very rare but are almost certainly responsible for the hottest temperatures ever recorded on Earth.

70C+ are possible with them.

Difficulty is they are so rare they haven't happened over an official weather station before, and if they did would it break?

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

warrenb
Monday, August 10, 2020 9:24:03 AM
27.5c here now
Tonbridge 45m 
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
Monday, August 10, 2020 9:25:51 AM
Really heating up noticeably here now, but not reflected in the LCY station reading yet. I think we’ll see a big jump at 10.30
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
Monday, August 10, 2020 9:33:09 AM

 

Well there is this

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_burst

They are very rare but are almost certainly responsible for the hottest temperatures ever recorded on Earth.

70C+ are possible with them.

Difficulty is they are so rare they haven't happened over an official weather station before, and if they did would it break?

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

One did hit Donna Nook weather station in July last year, but it was in the evening and the temperature rise wasn't as extreme as that.

 

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1154527667980402688?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1154527667980402688%7Ctwgr%5E&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fuk.news.yahoo.com%2Fparts-uk-had-heat-burst-085800942.html

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

xioni2
Monday, August 10, 2020 9:33:10 AM

London looks on course for 36-37C today.

Quantum
Monday, August 10, 2020 9:35:11 AM

 

One did hit Donna Nook weather station in July last year, but it was in the evening and the temperature rise wasn't as extreme as that.

 

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1154527667980402688?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1154527667980402688%7Ctwgr%5E&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fuk.news.yahoo.com%2Fparts-uk-had-heat-burst-085800942.html

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

That's a pretty amazing example, really lucky to see a good one right over a weather station.

The most extreme ones that have temps 70C+ have never been offically recorded (otherwise they would hold the world temperature record). You don't want to be under one of them though. Crops destroyed in seconds and people with instant burns.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

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