In the next 30 years, the population of Africa and the middle east is forecast to rise by about 550 million - I would rather they mostly stayed there.

Of course you do, and they will mostly stay there

If your wife had stayed where she was in the Caribbean, your children would never have been born

 

Pots and kettles come to mind.

I'm not like you. I admit when I have got things wrong. I was wrong about Brexit, Corbyn and lockdown

 

Of course you do, and they will mostly stay there

If your wife had stayed where she was in the Caribbean, your children would never have been born

Except that she came to the UK perfectly legally under the rules at the time. I am not against immigration, it just needs to be properly regulated and controlled under the rules and must be allowed according to the benefit to the settled population.

I am not against immigration

<<< spits drink over monitor >>>

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Hospitals in Brazil's São Paulo 'near collapse'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-52701524

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European countries set to further relax restrictions

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52701621

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I do understand where you are coming from. However, my attitude is that you defend what you have - we have seen from history what happens to those who don't manage or are unwilling to defend their turf.

In the next 30 years, the population of Africa and the middle east is forecast to rise by about 550 million - I would rather they mostly stayed there.

I would rather we educated people to control population growth and got rid of bigoted governments like the USA and other regimes whose borders (or expanding versions) are based on religious and other dogma.

 

OT, but sadly BBC4 is being shut down later this year

No way?!! Is that true?? It is pretty much my go to channel.

OK. Thanks. If that’s the case, it’s new evidence and I’d like to read it. 

The NHS are still recommending sunshine!
 https://www.nhs.uk/live-well/healthy-body/how-to-get-vitamin-d-from-sunlight/

 https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&m=1201227#post1201227

What I need to do now is find where I referenced the information from! 

 

No way?!! Is that true?? It is pretty much my go to channel.

Unfortunately nowadays it just seems full of stuff that was shown on BBC2 several years ago. 

 

 

<<< spits drink over monitor >>>

I am really not, provided it is always properly controlled and done in the interests of the settled people of this country.

I believe this to be very, very important and significant and I suggest it is worth people having a look:-

https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time

It is based on 3.5 million people in the UK saying if they think they have symptoms. Now that may not be as accurate as a test (or possibly more so?) but it will be consistent over the period of time. The pattern of the graph is exactly what you would expect and follows official data.

There is a week to ten day lag as it is symptoms recorded. it clearly shows the dramatic drop on April 1st a week or so after lockdown and a dramatic fall gradually slowing. As I feared it started to level out a week or so ago (so two weeks ago in effect) and now showing a very slight rise. The government keeps saying new cases are falling but their own graph wasn't really showing that on new admissions. I would expect this to some extent as we have not changed markedly what we have been doing so it would reach a specific plateau, especially if R=1. The worry is the background level seems relatively high still to me. This would also imply that in a couple of weeks time the daily deaths may level at around 100-150.

What do others think?

I believe this to be very, very important and significant and I suggest it is worth people having a look:- The worry is the background level seems relatively high still to me. This would also imply that in a couple of weeks time the daily deaths may level at around 100-150.

What do others think?

The uptick at the end, following a stagnation, is indeed worrying - all being equal, it would suggest R is hovering around or just above 1, which obviously isn't good!

This is also very similar to the pattern of the number of new cases being detected, which has also plateaued at about 3500 a day.

This would suggest that if anything the restrictions should be tightened again, unless we're happy to have that many cases around (it's far higher than France, Spain, Italy etc).

100-150 a day in terms of deaths might be optimistic, at least outside of the lower totals reported on Sunday and Monday due to the weekend...

Well I've found my original post,  from 6th April - think I need to take a nap now 

 https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&m=1201227#post1201227

What I need to do now is find where I referenced the information from! 

I’d argue, ‘it is accepted that during the summer months, sunshine does provide adequate levels of Vitamin D’.   

 

The uptick at the end, following a stagnation, is indeed worrying - all being equal, it would suggest R is hovering around or just above 1, which obviously isn't good!

This is also very similar to the pattern of the number of new cases being detected, which has also plateaued at about 3500 a day.

This would suggest that if anything the restrictions should be tightened again, unless we're happy to have that many cases around (it's far higher than France, Spain, Italy etc).

100-150 a day in terms of deaths might be optimistic, at least outside of the lower totals reported on Sunday and Monday due to the weekend...

 

I think Harries said the infection rate is likely to be half of its current value when schools reopen in a couple of weeks. 

....... what is also very interesting is if you look at the animated map on the left at the same time (better on a PC than a phone) it looks although that levelling may be caused by a wave moving to the north east and Yorkshire in particular. You see as the pink vanishes in the South East blobs increase further north. In a way that is no bad thing in that it may just be that difference in lag time and as it subsides there then numbers will fall. The danger is if they unlock too much there it could spread south again. It hink perhaps they do have to look at this regionally, unless of course it is naturally dying out anyway.

 

I think Harries said the infection rate is likely to be half of its current value when schools reopen in a couple of weeks. 

Doesn't seem to be reflected in this data, certainly not for all regions. The one thing withe Zoe data is the sheer number of people reporting. So even if 50% are reporting symptoms that are not Covid it will not affect the trend because it can be assumed with that population size the mis-reporting would be equal each day. So the raw numbers i.e 250,000 currently reporting symptoms could be wrong, but the trend won't be.

I think Harries said the infection rate is likely to be half of its current value when schools reopen in a couple of weeks. 

The obvious reply to that, then, is if it isn't - does that mean they'll keep schools mostly closed? I'd bet not.

So now that there is more testing going on, I am hearing quite a few anecdotal accounts, of key workers receiving positive test results, despite being asymptomatic.  In one location they tested everyone, about half those with COVID did not have symptoms.
In one case an employee tested positive on day 1, then again on day 10 - no symptoms throughout. They isolated for 7 days following the first positive result, but have now gone back to work on their GP's advice. This person was only tested because there were tests available.
Seems there is confusion and lack of guidance about when asymptomatic people should go back to work particularly if they keep testing positive. Guidance seems to be around the period from the onset of symptoms only. Any views?