Anyone got any up to date info on Germany's R value ?
Today's report not yet out. Here's yesterday's:
The current estimate is R= 0.94 (95% prediction interval: 0.79 - 1.10) and is based on electronically notified cases as of 12/05/2020, 12:00 AM. The estimate of the reproduction number R has been slightly above 1 in the last few days, which shows that the decline in the number of new cases we have observed in recent weeks has levelled off and may be reaching a plateau. So far we do not expect to see an increasing trend again. The slowdown in the decline in new cases is also related to local outbreaks, for example in the vicinity of slaughterhouses. Moreover, since case numbers in Germany are slowly decreasing overall, these outbreaks have a greater impact on the value of the reproduction number R than if total case numbers were higher. Overall, therefore, the development of the number of new cases must be observed in the next few days in order to rule out a merely temporary slowdown in the decline. Statistical uncertainties are represented by the prediction interval.
Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.