I can confidently say Germany has done better than the UK but its the only country I can say that in Europe. 

There are many European countries that have done better than us, tens of countries. Have a look at what most CEE countries did in mid-March and the number of infections and deaths they have so far.

 

I've given up caring about my own personal wellbeing at this point. In fact I'd say one of my singular motivations is proving it is possible to be socially responsible for months on end.

Regarding those countries you mentioned,

The UK is 12x as dense as sweeden and 2x as dense as Denmark. And when you account for the fact our population is 3.5x higher than the Netherlands the numbers don't look that much better.

 

You can be socially responsible in more ways than one. Arguably it is socially responsible to restart the economy before millions of lives are ruined. 

It may well be that we don't get a vaccine and Covid 19 will be something we have to live and die with. There are a number of scientists that think many countries will end up with similar death tolls no matter what strategies they employ. Who knows? 

 

You can be socially responsible in more ways than one. Arguably it is socially responsible to restart the economy before millions of lives are ruined. 

It may well be that we don't get a vaccine and Covid 19 will be something we have to live and die with. There are a number of scientists that think many countries will end up with similar death tolls no matter what strategies they employ. Who knows? 

I don't disagree with the premise. My problem is with people unnecessarily indulging in their own personal desires at the expense of everyone else. And if we are really going with a 'crush the curve' strategy, then lockdown hard and we can also keep it time limited.

Keeping the economy ticking over is important though, but I think the plan should have been alot clearer about how to go about this. Not to spring some vauge message on everyone.

 

That's not true for Denmark, they banned mass gatherings on 11 March, closed schools, shops, restaurants etc. on 13/3 and closed their borders on 14/3.

 

Will be interesting to see how they fare now - they are virtually opening up completely, apart from the borders. Of course, if they maintain strict border controls and continue track and trace internally, they stand a chance of getting away with it. If they open their borders however, they will be back to square one before long.

 

There are many European countries that have done better than us, tens of countries. Have a look at what most CEE countries did in mid-March and the number of infections and deaths they have so far.

Which countries had to deal with the unique challenges of being one of the most integrated and densely populated countries in Europe? Germany has done really really well because it had similar challenges to the UK and overcame them in a way we did not.

 

Indeed, compare the UK SE to similarly populated areas: New York, Moscow, Lombardy. And what do you notice? Every other region had their health service overwhelmed. The UK didn't even touch 80% despite its healthcare being D tier.

 

 

I thought you hated the NHS?

 Which countries had to deal with the unique challenges of being one of the most integrated and densely populated countries in Europe? Germany has done really really well because it had similar challenges to the UK and overcame them in a way we did not.

There were other countries which were very vulnerable to this. Greece has a very high lived population density (~40% of its total population lives in flats in Athens) and they also happened to have ~100 schools visiting N.Italy in February.

Slovenia has tens of thousands of workers crossing the border daily to work in N.Italy. Both countries also have weak health care systems (weaker than ours), have a look though at the measures they took in mid-March and where they are now.

 

I thought you hated the NHS?

 

The fact it was not overwhelmed speaks to the sucess of the government policy at the time. Spain and Italy were overwhelmed. And I do consider their healthcare superior to ours.

 

When it came out, even the simple stay at home, protect the nhs and save lives caused debate, what does it mean, what can we do can't do because it was new instructions to digest, until it settled down somewhat with questions answered.

This is exactly the same. New instructions here. Debate. Let it get sorted.

Even the simplest simplest new guidance would still attract questions.

You've managed to contradict yourself, as far as I can judge.

If the simple message seven weeks ago needed clarification surely it was blindingly obvious that a more nuanced message would need even more clarification?

Look, I've been involved in similar exercises in the corporate world.  You plan carefully, you test the messages, you ensure that you have answers to the inevitable "What about this...?" and "Why that?".  You provide the additional information simultaneously and you have people available to answer the questions and provide background as necessary.  It is not rocket science.

Despite the incoherent messaging by HMG, I think we'll probably avoid a significant second surge as most people will act responsibly and we won't go back to what we were doing in early March. Our excess mortality will probably take longer to decline though compared to other countries and we'll probably end up with the highest total.

 

I think that is fair. Summer UV levels will also help in the Northern Hemisphere

We will rumble along with a daily death toll of between 100-200 throughout the Summer. Maybe it will peter out or rise again in September. No one knows, not even the experts

 Will be interesting to see how they fare now - they are virtually opening up completely, apart from the borders. Of course, if they maintain strict border controls and continue track and trace internally, they stand a chance of getting away with it. I

I think this is probably what they will do and they will wait for the possible vaccine. They will only open their borders if the epidemic is contained throughout Europe. Their economy will recover more quickly than other countries, where transmission lingers.

 

The fact it was not overwhelmed speaks to the sucess of the government policy at the time. Spain and Italy were overwhelmed. And I do consider their healthcare superior to ours.

When you look at the stats for ICU deaths it's not difficult to conclude that the NHS wasn't overwhelmed because hundreds (thousands?) of the old and vulnerable were left to die at home or in care homes. They didn't even get a chance to overwhelm the NHS.

 

The fact it was not overwhelmed speaks to the sucess of the government policy at the time. Spain and Italy were overwhelmed. And I do consider their healthcare superior to ours.

It speaks to the hardwork and bravery of NHS staff who put their lives on the line without the correct PPE. About 200 have lost their lives so far. Zero in Germany

If everyone had done what they were told during the lockdown we would be virtually back to normal by now.

Giving people more responsibility when they can't handle the small amount they had seems ridiculous.

 

If I was running things, it would be very different though I can guarantee none of you would like it.

We wouldn't have been 'virtually back to normal' because the measures taken weren't designed to eliminate the virus, merely to contain it.

You really don't seem to grasp the basics.

 

We wouldn't have been 'virtually back to normal' because the measures taken weren't designed to eliminate the virus, merely to contain it.

You really don't seem to grasp the basics.

I never said back to normal. I said back to February type conditions which is definitely possible. Eliminating the virus entirely not so much.

 

When you look at the stats for ICU deaths it's not difficult to conclude that the NHS wasn't overwhelmed because hundreds (thousands?) of the old and vulnerable were left to die at home or in care homes. They didn't even get a chance to overwhelm the NHS.

And this too

This govt is guilty of gross negligence and manslaughter. Think Hillsborough multiplied several thousand fold

 

And this too

This govt is guilty of gross negligence and manslaughter. Think Hillsborough multiplied several thousand fold

This is no different to many other European countries. Italian care home fatalities are probably worse than the UK.

 

I think this is probably what they will do and they will wait for the possible vaccine. They will only open their borders if the epidemic is contained throughout Europe. Their economy will recover more quickly than other countries, where transmission lingers.

Sweden's death toll per capita is bad, but they kept their economic engine running, so will also recover  quickly. 

We have the worst of both worlds. Potential for mass unemployment and small business failures, decimation of the retail and hospitality sector etc , in addition to terrible human cost. 

We are a global laughing stock, second only to America

Everyone is down on the Government for relaxing restrictions,

No.

People are 'down on the Government' for bigging up a speech by Bozo that contained advice which was confusing and muddled. Which didn't set out clear changes to the restrictions and was full of if's and perhapses. Which didn't explain the measures they would implement to ensure that a test/trace/quarantine process was successful. Which was at times contradictory and will be seized on by the idiots who want to break the restrictions as a carte blanche to do so.