The speed with which Ferguson’s models – mere models, remember – were transformed into a kind of Biblical writ, a revelation of doom, was extraordinary. I had that number of 500,000 thrown in my face during media discussions about the lockdown. Anyone who questioned the wisdom of the lockdown, or merely suggested it should be very brief, would find themselves being battered by Ferguson’s figures. Almost overnight it became tantamount to blasphemy to question these models. Again, this wasn’t Ferguson’s doing. It was the political class’s dodging of moral responsibility for tackling Covid without destroying the economy, and the media’s searing intolerance towards anyone who questioned the lockdown

Brendan O'Neill insightful as usual
https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/05/06/what-neil-fergusons-booty-call-tells-us-about-modern-politics/



Also lockdown fanatics - spot on:
https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/05/08/lockdown-fanatics-scare-me-far-more-than-covid-19/

And yet the conservative ONS estimates suggest that by last week, the death toll had reached 10% of Ferguson's worst-case scenario with a lockdown. 

 

But is it quarantine if it's entirely voluntary? Obviously, nobody's talking about locking people up, but you could have measures to take details of people arriving in the country, recording their proposed address and having the possibility of having these people visited by a health official during the two week quarantine period. 

I'm not sure that it's such a big issue at the moment given that there's little international travel. However, if Ireland was mainly virus free in the coming weeks while the disease was very active elsewhere, I would want our government to have some method of tracking people entering the country. 

It is no more voluntary than any other legally enforceable action surely? With spot checks, fines and the threat of deportation I am not sure it is “voluntary”?

Re. Taking addresses etc. I believe that is exactly what is being proposed.

 

 

Some interesting extremes in views chatting (from 2 metres+) with friends in the village over the last couple of days. One or two thinking the government has done quite well but others saying it’s been a disaster and a shambles.

I would bet my bottom dollar that the ones saying they've done well are Brexit supporters?

The point is that it is basically quarantine not a sinister Libertarian plot. 

Central tenets of policy are not a plot.

They are however, sinister and Libertarian.

">https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/05/08/lockdown-fanatics-scare-me-far-more-than-covid-19/

And yet the conservative ONS estimates suggest that by last week, the death toll had reached 10% of Ferguson's worst-case scenario with a lockdown. 

 

Four inhabits his own weird universe where reality is simply ignored if it doesn’t fit his fixed opinions. Then he goes to his usual preferred sources to cherry pick and bias confirmation.

 

It is no more voluntary than any other legally enforceable action surely? With spot checks, fines and the threat of deportation I am not sure it is “voluntary”?

Re. Taking addresses etc. I believe that is exactly what is being proposed.

And you believe them? Your Tory govt has cut the police so much that they cant even investigate burglaries and muggings anymore. They are overwhelmed and this is going to be low priority. Are they going to break down the door to check a person is in, if they don't answer the doorbell?

In China, they bus you straight from the airport to hotels, and make sure you dont leave for 14 days.

If/when garden centres reopen we won't be able to go unless they also reopen their toilet facilities as my wife will need to make use of them.

Looks like they are opening on Wednesday. I'm sure that toilet facilities will be open but cafes won't.

"A senior government source told the BBC centres can reopen from Wednesday, if they comply with social distancing".

If/when garden centres reopen we won't be able to go unless they also reopen their toilet facilities as my wife will need to make use of them.

Garden centres will immediately become absolute hell holes. For hundreds of thousands of people they will be the only option for a "nice day out" while others will be desperate to buy up as many plants as possible. I imagine that social distancing will immediately go out of the window in the scrum at these places. Big mistake allowing them to reopen now, IMO.

If/when garden centres reopen we won't be able to go unless they also reopen their toilet facilities as my wife will need to make use of them.

I would imagine they would be required to by H & S legislation, and disabled ones too

Though a public loo is the last place I would want to go near at the moment, let alone in normal times!

She would be better off using a pad

It is no more voluntary than any other legally enforceable action surely? With spot checks, fines and the threat of deportation I am not sure it is “voluntary”?

Re. Taking addresses etc. I believe that is exactly what is being proposed.

Taking addresses does not constitute enforcement. Without active enforcement, the measures are ineffective.

The repeating pattern which we see from this government is that there are plenty of rules but enforcement only occurs sporadically and then only against out-groups. Those unfortunates whom the law binds but does not protect.

 

And you believe them? Your Tory govt has cut the police so much that they cant even investigate burglaries and muggings anymore. They are overwhelmed and this is going to be low priority. Are they going to break down the door to check a person is in, if they don't answer the doorbell?

In China, they bus you straight from the airport to hotels, and make sure you dont leave for 14 days.

 

It is irrelevant to my point whether I believe them or not.

Ulric seems to have ignored the proposed enforcement measures totally. Perhaps he can’t work out if having them is “Libertarian” or not.

"https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/05/08/lockdown-fanatics-scare-me-far-more-than-covid-19/

And yet the conservative ONS estimates suggest that by last week, the death toll had reached 10% of Ferguson's worst-case scenario with a lockdown. 

 

Steady, that's just the 'proof' the lockdown isn't working four needs...

 

Garden centres will immediately become absolute hell holes. For hundreds of thousands of people they will be the only option for a "nice day out" while others will be desperate to buy up as many plants as possible. I imagine that social distancing will immediately go out of the window in the scrum at these places. Big mistake allowing them to reopen now, IMO.

And they are hubs for old people anyway, who stand around chatting. I feel sorry for the staff. Even though they are mostly young people who may not be affected, I would rather they were kept on furlough for as long as needed

​ Garden centres in England will be allowed to open from Wednesday

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-garden-centres-to-reopen-as-first-steps-to-ease-lockdown-revealed-11985532

​

From the BBC:

Coronavirus: How they tried to curb Spanish flu pandemic in 1918

"It is dangerous to draw too many parallels between coronavirus and the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, that killed at least 50 million people around the world.

Covid-19 is an entirely new disease, which disproportionately affects older people. The deadly strain of influenza that swept the globe in 1918 tended to strike those aged between 20 and 30, with strong immune systems.

But the actions taken by governments and individuals to prevent the spread of infection have a familiar ring to them.

Public Health England studied the Spanish flu outbreak to draw up its initial contingency plan for coronavirus, the key lesson being that the second wave of the disease, in the autumn of 1918, proved to be far more deadly than the first."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/in-pictures-52564371

 

Garden centres will immediately become absolute hell holes. For hundreds of thousands of people they will be the only option for a "nice day out" while others will be desperate to buy up as many plants as possible. I imagine that social distancing will immediately go out of the window in the scrum at these places. Big mistake allowing them to reopen now, IMO.

Isn't it the garden centre cafe that often seems to be the centre of those days out? 

 

It is no more voluntary than any other legally enforceable action surely? With spot checks, fines and the threat of deportation I am not sure it is “voluntary”?

Re. Taking addresses etc. I believe that is exactly what is being proposed.

I didn't explain "voluntary" very well. What I mean is that if there is no way of following up on people coming into the country and checking whether they really are self isolating, then any rules on self isolation will in effect be voluntary. Fair enough, if there are enough spot checks and a system of fines, that's ok.

At virtually every step, HMG has either dithered or made the wrong decision:

• Not closing our borders in January/February when it was clear that a highly infectious new virus was on the march

• Allowing major sporting events to go ahead in mid March

• Not locking down society two weeks earlier

• The ongoing PPE fiasco

• The care homes disaster

• The briefing about relaxing lockdown from Monday

• And now the forthcoming garden centres disaster

On the plus side, Sunak's furlough scheme, business interruption loans and grants and for the self-employed were timely and well conceived at pace. But the messaging on this has been soured by the very poorly advised comments about people becoming "addicted to state aid". And if Sunak withdraws these measures too soon (as he is threatening), there will be a far worse economic and social disaster.