Herd instinct as opposed to herd immunity.

Not encouraging though: people panicking and putting themselves first.

In our local Tesco on Thursday one of the members of staff said it had been ‘like Christmas’.  Except that the supermarkets gear up for that.

Absolutely. But in addition - if method A is tough but works, then it will work again for a 2nd wave. I don't get why there is this assumption a 2nd wave can't be dealt with.

Yes I am (surprisingly) now in alignment with your thinking. I am very concerned about the UK government's strategy. Having said that I have no choice but to accept it.

It’s all speculation other than the government’s policy, which is based on science.  

We don’t know that it will mutate and we don’t know whether it would mutate enough to overcome immunity. But surely it’s irrelevant? A vaccine has to be found and, if necessary, found again.  Not bothering to try because it might not be fully effective isn’t an option. 

A lesson from history? We keep referring back to this pandemic.
Why historians ignored the Spanish flu.
https://theconversation.com/why-historians-ignored-the-spanish-flu-101950

Roger

But as the virus is now in circulation, without a vaccine and without herd immunity this could go on for years.

There’s no painless way through this, as far as I can see.

I agree. The number of really sick people needs to be at a level that they can get treatment and health services can cope. Even with a lock down that is only just about the case in Italy.

Lock down 'works' it gives a measure of control - can the UK govt say that their policy will?

There is another problem - news travels too fast these days...

How many waves did Spanish Flu have, Gandalf? See my link in the post above. Quite a few parallels.

R.

An interesting read, Roger.

I was thinking a few days ago about the fear that came with the Black Death: a time when there was no understanding of the cause. An unseen killer that would just suddenly appear in your midst.  Parallels with Ebola in Africa.

At least we (most) now know about the cause and the way viruses are transmitted but that doesn’t entirely remove the anxiety factor.

Three, as I understand it. But a century on, hopefully modern medicine, a generally healthier population (age profile notwithstanding) and a potential vaccine should make a difference.

What if those countries though that Q mentions keep managing to stop successive waves without crippling their economies?

Misinformation travels as fast, along with a myriad of ‘expert opinions’ disputing the approach being taken.

WHO spokeswoman Margaret Harris said not enough is known about the science of COVID-19, questioning the UK's approach to developing "herd immunity" against the virus, saying that while "theories" can be talked about, the current situation requires "action".

We don’t know; that’s the problem.

Singapore is seeing cases which? If scaled up for population size, are typically equivalent to 100-200 per day here. They had cases before us but they’re running at three times our level per head of population at the moment.  If you apply the ratios being given they could have 10-20 times that number of people carrying the virus.

I’d like to see how the numbers shape up here over the next 2-3 weeks and even then it would be premature to form a firm judgement.  We won’t rally know until this all settles down which country has the best approach.

I agree. But see what the WHO spokeswoman has said..

My concern is that the virus needs to be suppressed enough that the NHS can cope. If the govts approach does that then fine.

So it begins. The panic will now set in.

That's right, Gandalf - and in contrast we have a remarkable if overstretched NHS and related agencies ready to do what can be done. It's the potential aftermath that worries me - the economic impact long-term. It could be said that the rise of Nazism, WW2 and the EU were all related, at least in part, to the consequences of WW1 and Spanish Flu. I wonder what the legacy of this saga will be.

R.

She is correct but it doesn’t mean that herd immunity won’t work; it means herd immunity might not work.  But doesn’t that lead back to the same place? ie if the population remains at risk then we are fighting this with extreme measures for years; indeed without a vaccine potentially forever.

Why?

Haven't you been panicking for a while? 

The sad fact of the matter is quite a few more people will die even if you put everyone in “lockdown”.

Dare I say herd mentality...

One important difference is that the Spanish flu struck the young and otherwise healthy down to a much greater extent. Obviously not much comfort for those who don’t fit that group, of course.