The Weather Outlook

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Gavin D
05 March 2020 15:18:37

 The communication has not been good, though. But they definitely said they would give figures with a 24 hour delay. Given that they gave yesterday's without such a delay, only initiating the new procedure today, well... I'm sure you can do the maths, Gavin.

Originally Posted by: NickR 

 

They'll be out later this afternoon...

 

The Beast from the East
05 March 2020 15:25:34

Breaking: Today's figures will be published later this afternoon.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Farce

They'd better be good, after all this waiting!

I want Stokes at the crease today

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Gavin D
05 March 2020 15:26:12

Either they have a genuine delay today or the increase is so big they're waiting for the stock markets in London to close.

Bugglesgate
05 March 2020 15:29:43

Either they have a genuine delay today or the increase is so big they're waiting for the stock markets in London to close.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

 

That would be pointless. 

This is an ongoing situation and we all know the likely direction  of the numbers - including the shysters in the CoL.

Fall today, fall tomorrow - who cares ?

 

Chris (It,its)

Between Newbury and Basingstoke

"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"

xioni2
05 March 2020 15:31:14

 They'd better be good, after all this waiting!

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Come on England! The media and the number obsessed are waiting for some big numbers.

 

Maunder Minimum
05 March 2020 15:41:00

 

Have we discussed travel to northern Italy?

Hindsight is such a wonderful tool.

All you’re doing is making yourself look like an idiot. Can’t you turn down your panic mode a little?

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Yes - we discussed early last week that travel to Italy should be suspended.

We will see who looks like an idiot in a few days.

P.S. no panic on my side - I can just see where this is headed.

New world order coming.
NickR
05 March 2020 15:43:37
Wouldn't be surprised to see somewhere around 250.
Nick

Durham

[email protected]

Quantum
05 March 2020 15:46:57

Wouldn't be surprised to see somewhere around 250.

Originally Posted by: NickR 

Unlikely. That would put the growth rate in the UK well beyond any other country in Europe.

So far we have seen the opposite.

I'd expect around 40-50 new cases which would take us to something like 130 total.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

bowser
05 March 2020 15:48:03

 

Unlikely. That would put the growth rate in the UK well beyond any other country in Europe.

So far we have seen the opposite.

I'd expect around 40-50 new cases which would take us to something like 130 total.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Covid19 daily sweepstake coming up

Heavy Weather 2013
05 March 2020 15:49:32

I have a feeling it will be +100

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Quantum
05 March 2020 15:50:58

One thing I do expect to happen soon is a US imported case.

Tbh I hope it happens soon (realistically it already has but we just haven't measured it) because we are not taking the US threat seriously. It should be on the same list as Iran and Italy.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Bugglesgate
05 March 2020 15:54:02

I'm expecting to contract Covid-19 at some point over the next three or four weeks. I'm asthmatic and therefore supposedly vulnerable.

However, I expect that I will suffer a couple of days of fever and shortness of breath but make a quick recovery.

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

 

I hope so. That's  the level I'm hoping for as well.  I'm not in a risk group but I'm concerned  about passing it on to family and friends that are.

The name of the game (if at all possible) for vulnerable people is to avoid  the peak  where there is likley to be no or limited  external support.

Looking  on the bright side, hopefully it will have run its course by the autumn and just be another "bug"  that "lays  us low"  from time to time.

 

 

 

Chris (It,its)

Between Newbury and Basingstoke

"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"

JOHN NI
05 March 2020 16:04:20
New number as of 9-00am 5th March is 115 from over 18,000 tests.
John.

The orange County of Armagh.

Quantum
05 March 2020 16:06:12

Daily increase of 25,

I put it at 40-50.

What this means is that the UK is doing especially well compared to other parts of Europe.

Delay strategies are working well so far.

 

And we know this can't be attributed to underesting like the US. While the UK probably is undertesting it probably ranks similar to Italy, perhaps even South korea.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Quantum
05 March 2020 16:07:44

I am quite gobsmaked at how well the UK has done so far compared to other countries.

We, perhaps, arn't quite to SK, Hong kong or Singapore type levels of competence.

But the 'envy of the world' NHS stuff finally seems to have a kernel of truth about it.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Quantum
05 March 2020 16:09:10

New number as of 9-00am 5th March is 115 from over 18,000 tests.

Originally Posted by: JOHN NI 

This is very impressive.

While the global outlook is bleak, we should all be reassured that the UK is doing well so far.

But do not drop the ball!

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Heavy Weather 2013
05 March 2020 16:09:25

UK Cases have increased by 30.

25 of these cases were in London

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Quantum
05 March 2020 16:11:49

UK Cases have increased by 30.

25 of these cases were in London

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

So 25 is not the figure? That's just London

What about the 3 from Scotland, is it 33 or is it included?

 

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Heavy Weather 2013
05 March 2020 16:13:50

 

So 25 is not the figure? That's just London

What about the 3 from Scotland, is it 33 or is it included?

 

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

So the update was for 25 for England and 30 for the UK as a whole

Of the 25 all were in London according to the BBC

8 of the cases appear to be person to person transmission

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Quantum
05 March 2020 16:15:35

Apparantely 9/30 were contracted in the UK.

I'd rather like to know more detailed info about those 9. Are they family members? Are there any lost transmission chains?

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Heavy Weather 2013
05 March 2020 16:16:18

Actually the BBC were not clear. That's a total of 25 in London overall

East of England8
London25
Midlands9
North East and Yorkshire10
North West17
South East17
South West15
To be determined4
Total105
Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Quantum
05 March 2020 16:16:40

 

So the update was for 25 for England and 30 for the UK as a whole

Of the 25 all were in London according to the BBC

8 of the cases appear to be person to person transmission

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Ah okay. Still a bit below my prediction, which is still a good sign imo.

The 8 (or is it 9?) is less good news. But if they were all close contacts I'd be less concerned.

 

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Heavy Weather 2013
05 March 2020 16:17:25

Apparantely 9/30 were contracted in the UK.

I'd rather like to know more detailed info about those 9. Are they family members? Are there any lost transmission chains?

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Agreed this is the figure we need to be paying attention you. If that number starts going through the roof we are *******.

Lots of FB friends are now reporting panic buying across the UK

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Quantum
05 March 2020 16:18:48

 

Agreed this is the figure we need to be paying attention you. If that number starts going through the roof we are *******.

Lots of FB friends are now reporting panic buying across the UK

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

I suspect most of them will just be close contacts, but I'd like to be sure.

This is where we are behind singapore. They would already have a detailed transmission chain online by now.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Heavy Weather 2013
05 March 2020 16:21:19

 

I suspect most of them will just be close contacts, but I'd like to be sure.

This is where we are behind singapore. They would already have a detailed transmission chain online by now.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Have you revised you American grading yet - keen to hear if your revising downwards.

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

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