I get the feeling that the contagion in Italy is far more widespread than the official figures indicate - look at the number of people recently who have spent a couple of days in Milan and then returned to other countries infected.

As we have discussed, during an outbreak the authorities naturally test those with definitive symptoms, missing those who are passing on the virus asymptomatically. I would suggest that several thousands are infected in Italy, particularly in the north and Milan - probably tens of thousands.

In Iran, the true numbers infected should be measured in the millions.

Obviously I don't trust the Tory government at all to get this right.

But thank god JC isn't in charge of this. Labour would probably have spent more time worrying about xenophobic hate crime than the actual virus.

It's probably around 3-4k based on the number of deaths and a comparison with SK.

So missing something like 1/2 at least. Although it could also be due to saturation, and many more suspected than confirmed.

All hypothetical, but I wouldn't say this. The state infrastructure tends to be stronger and better funded under Labour and Corbyn wouldn't personally manage this.

Again you are doing the same thing - taking one piece of data and extrapolating too much from it. The UK may be on top of this more than other countries but we can't tell at the moment. The reality is we are at an earlier stage than some other countries, for example Italy and South Korea. 

The UK should be in a similar position to Spain, France and Germany who are all similarly connected to the Italian cluster. I think we have a much better handle on this than them.

Also you really can't win in here. I'm being too pesimisstic one minute, and too optimistic the next.

Confused here - France has 130 cases, so were 92 of them not tested?

Agreed, it's way too early to say that the UK is doing better than other countries. 

As of 29th February.

France also doesn't update it's statistics regularly. That doesn't fill me with confidence either.

We are not similarly connected to the Italian cluster, geographical proximity and commercial links are quite different.

You lot are really hard to please.

Too early to comment on the performance of the UK so far

But not too early to complacently suggest it won't be any worse than the flu?

I really don't see much in the way of nitpicking at any of the other posters who are extrapolating from not much data.

I even get it in the neck for complaining about a lack of data! When I expressed skeptism about China or Iran's data I was called a conspiracy theorist!

Too optimistic, too pesimisstic, too certain and too uncertain all at the same time.

Forget many worlds, we need the TWO interpetation of quantum mechanics.

He loves Boris and Brexit was so excited about the baby and wedding. He's going to win the posting league this year

That must be a good intro for a psychotherapy session.

France update daily normally between 18:30 and 19:30...

Trade links are quite similar especially with Spain.

But let's say you are right. Well they have more cases, that should mean more testing. We have tested more than 10x as many as France, and France's outbreak is worse. Fair to say France is probably missing more cases, which is probably why they are approaching the expoential phase and we arn't yet.

Well I can't find data for the number of tests any later than the 29th February.

Yes there is data for the number of confirmed cases, deaths e.c.t. But the last update for number of tests was on the 29th Feb unless I'm missing the data. If someone can find it for me we can look at the new ratio. I doubt it will impress though.

Simulation: extra hand washing vs no hand washing in the UK

https://twitter.com/FryRsquared/status/1234491912775782400

This is the thing about exponential functions. They are scary but they are also very sensitive and can be very easily damped.

Quantum is right - I cannot find the latest up to date statistics from France anywhere, but two more deaths have just been announced in France.

Meanwhile, the isolation of northern Italy continues apace:

"The Czech Security Council has suspended flights to Prague from Milan, Bologna and Venice in Italy, as well as from South Korea, Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis and Health minister Adam Vojtech said at a news conference today."

P.S.

"Jordan's health minister has announced that a Jordanian man who flew in from Italy two weeks ago has tested positive for the new coronavirus - the first case confirmed in the kingdom."

The isolation of the UK begins.

The WHO update is streaming here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4rW3QFiuN8&feature=emb_logo

Cannot blame them - they have had zero reported cases so far. If they want to protect their population, then stopping contact with infected regions makes sense. I doubt that Tajikistan would be economically impacted by isolating itself - it is a rural country of nomadic tribes.

[edit] appears to be a big producer of aluminium however. Details:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tajikistan

Just like Britain before we joined the Common Market

People keep going on about washing their hands to stop getting corona virus
Just give them gloves
As a lot of people say I caught [censored]all when I wore mine

— Neville Southall (@NevilleSouthall) March 2, 2020

Again if you do it correctly.

Skin is warm and is a natural disinfectant so the virus probably only survives for a few hours (do not touch your face in that time).

The virus can probably survive on the surface of the gloves for longer, and if you take them off incorrectly you will get it on your hands.

False sense of security + no hand washing = infection.