The Weather Outlook

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Gandalf The White
25 February 2020 20:50:03

A divinely inspired spread of disease, BBC reports that Islamic clergy have prevented any quarantine measures being applied in Qom which appears to be the centre for most of the coronavirus deaths in Iran (Iran govt says 12 deaths there, whistleblowers say 50)

Reason? It is important that foreign pilgrims can continue to travel to and from the Shiite holy places there. I suppose they have got their priorities clear.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51628484 (section by Rana Rahimpour, scroll down)

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Yes, completely daft.  I commented on this earlier - it's a medieval attitude and perhaps not surprising for a country run by a bunch of religious zealots.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Maunder Minimum
25 February 2020 20:50:51

A divinely inspired spread of disease, BBC reports that Islamic clergy have prevented any quarantine measures being applied in Qom which appears to be the centre for most of the coronavirus deaths in Iran (Iran govt says 12 deaths there, whistleblowers say 50)

Reason? It is important that foreign pilgrims can continue to travel to and from the Shiite holy places there. I suppose they have got their priorities clear.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51628484 (section by Rana Rahimpour, scroll down)

Originally Posted by: DEW 

I refer you to my recent post:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&m=1181823#post1181823

Mumbo jumbo trumps science.

New world order coming.
Brian Gaze
25 February 2020 21:22:17

Surely one of the most ludicrous photos of all time. 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Gandalf The White
25 February 2020 21:34:52

Surely one of the most ludicrous photos of all time. 

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

If you think that's bad try watching the video.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Quantum
25 February 2020 22:17:10

Christ it's everywhere in Europe tonight. Cases coming in by the hour. Another one in Madrid now.

 

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Quantum
25 February 2020 22:37:04

OK going to attempt to list where all the non-Italian European cases came from. Hopefully try to shed some light on this.

Croatian case: Young man who stayed in Milan, Italy, from 19th-21st February.

Two Austrian cases: Two 24 YOs, one from Lombardy, Italy. Case in Tyrol on the Italian border.

Switzerland case: One 70 year old Male who contracted it from Milan, Italy on February 15th

First spanish mailand case: Young women who had travelled from Italy on the 22nd February

2nd Spanish case: 38 YO italian that travelled to barcelona on the 12th February

3rd Spanish case: Italian originating from Venice

 

 

 

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Quantum
25 February 2020 22:53:20

The good news is that we may already seem to have finished the exponential phase in Italy. This will likely be because the measures put in place in Italy have worked. Need a few more days of data before we can be sure.

 

 

 

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Quantum
25 February 2020 22:57:06

Bruce Aylward said in a WHO press conference that he found no evidence of widespread mild cases of COVID in China.

The resolved CFR is currently 9%. The 2% figure would assume the lag of the naive CFR is roughly cancelled out by mild cases. If this is not the case then the mortality could be higher than 2% though it will not be higher than 9%.

 

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Gandalf The White
25 February 2020 22:57:50

The good news is that we may already seem to have finished the exponential phase in Italy. This will likely be because the measures put in place in Italy have worked. Need a few more days of data before we can be sure.

 

 

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

We won't get the data but I dread to think how that graph would look for Iran.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Quantum
25 February 2020 22:59:25

CDC is warning that the disruption to everyday lives in America could be big and urges people to start preparing.

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Quantum
25 February 2020 23:02:16

 

We won't get the data but I dread to think how that graph would look for Iran.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Iran will still be in the exponential phase because it has done nothing to try and control it.

In the exponential phase the number of cases doubles about every 3 days.

After 2 weeks that's 15000+ people infected.

After 3 weeks we are talking millions.

 

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Quantum
25 February 2020 23:04:06

 

Iran will still be in the exponential phase because it has done nothing to try and control it.

In the exponential phase the number of cases doubles about every 3 days.

After 2 weeks that's 15000+ people infected.

After 3 weeks we are talking millions.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Of course even without any measures the exponential phase will not sustain indefinitely because people will naturally self isolate.

So we are probably talking tens of thousands rather than millions at this point.

 

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Gandalf The White
25 February 2020 23:04:27

 

Iran will still be in the exponential phase because it has done nothing to try and control it.

In the exponential phase the number of cases doubles about every 3 days.

After 2 weeks that's 15000+ people infected.

After 3 weeks we are talking millions.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Friday prayers will most likely make things worse.

I feel sorry for the ordinary people in Iran: a country led by absolute muppets.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Quantum
25 February 2020 23:06:00

 

Friday prayers will most likely make things worse.

I feel sorry for the ordinary people in Iran: a country led by absolute muppets.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

It will likely be far worse than even Hubei.

 

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Quantum
25 February 2020 23:08:24

 

Friday prayers will most likely make things worse.

I feel sorry for the ordinary people in Iran: a country led by absolute muppets.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

You literally had the godamned health minister spluttering on live television infecting everyone around him.

FFS you cannot make this crap up. If it really does take off I would be concerned about civil unrest in Iran. Especially after the mess in December with the Ukrainan airline.

 

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Quantum
25 February 2020 23:09:50

Looking at the other side of this Singapore definitely deserves an A+ grade for managing to stop the disease in it's path before it became an epidemic.

 

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Gandalf The White
25 February 2020 23:12:36

 

You literally had the godamned health minister spluttering on live television infecting everyone around him.

FFS you cannot make this crap up. If it really does take off I would be concerned about civil unrest in Iran. Especially after the mess in December with the Ukrainan airline.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

I thought it was rather reminiscent of Comical Ali doing a TV interview and denying that US troops were closing in whilst the tanks rolled past in the background.  Here we had the health minister clearly suffering from a bad fever claiming that there was just a very slight problem in the country.

Look on the bright side, maybe the entire regime might be wiped out by it.  Every cloud and all that.....

 

There's already civil unrest but the regime is well entrenched.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Quantum
25 February 2020 23:12:51

Incidentally Europe needs to be on high alert right now. Italy is right on our doorstep and the next few days will be critical as people from the affected region will start to show symptoms. So far the majority of countries with cases have not turned into regional centres. However we cannot afford for there to be another Italy on our doorstep.

 

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Quantum
25 February 2020 23:14:42

 

I thought it was rather reminiscent of Comical Ali doing a TV interview and denying that US troops were closing in whilst the tanks rolled past in the background.  Here we had the health minister clearly suffering from a bad fever claiming that there was just a very slight problem in the country.

Look on the bright side, maybe the entire regime might be wiped out by it.  Every cloud and all that.....

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

This is the sort of thing you can imagine could collapse a regime, North korea might be at risk too (although there was prior pressure on Iran before now). It's always a double edged sword though. If the regime collapses there will be untold human misery in the short term.

 

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Gandalf The White
25 February 2020 23:16:08

Looking at the other side of this Singapore definitely deserves an A+ grade for managing to stop the disease in it's path before it became an epidemic.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Maybe you understand now why I got rather irritated with the nonsense about it being out of control.  Singapore is a very well managed first-world country with a good healthcare system.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Quantum
25 February 2020 23:17:23

 

Maybe you understand now why I got rather irritated with the nonsense about it being out of control.  Singapore is a very well managed first-world country with a good healthcare system.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

It was close to being out of control, Singapore thankfully stopped it. South Korea and Italy also deserve praise for their rapid response even though they did not manage to contain it.

 

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Quantum
25 February 2020 23:22:17

Oh hell another in Germany.

 

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Chichesterweatherfan2
25 February 2020 23:25:44

Oh hell another in Germany.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

thanks goodness the Black Death or the Spanish Flu, the Internet and Quantum didn't all exist at the same time

Gandalf The White
25 February 2020 23:25:51

 

It was close to being out of control, Singapore thankfully stopped it. South Korea and Italy also deserve praise for their rapid response even though they did not manage to contain it.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Sorry, that's simply not true - repeat, NOT true.  It was never ever out of control.  With respect, I was there and have rather better knowledge of Singapore than you.

 

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Gandalf The White
25 February 2020 23:27:07

 

thanks goodness the Black Death or the Spanish Flu, the Internet and Quantum didn't all exist at the same time

Originally Posted by: Chichesterweatherfan2 

That thought has gone through my mind several times.

How many times can you cry wolf and then claim what you actually saw was a poodle?

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



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