I don't usually do what people tell me to do, but I respect my elders (even in this day and age!), so I did the survey.

The jocular tone of my comment was obvious.

But if you can't take being 'insulted', then try to be a little liberal in dishing out needless insults yourself. 

You are a star, Xioni. I owe you a pint.

It's amazing how many people make the assumption that epidemiology only needs to measure sick people. For example - you are the only TWO reader who has responded, never mind done it.

I've been doing the survey for some years now and it amazes me how few people choose to help. It's dead easy - they remind you with an email every week over the "flu season" and you fill in their form. The interactive map is interesting too, not least because of the low numbers of responses in some areas. Of course there are other surveys going on and data is flowing from GPs and hospitals etc - but it all completes the picture.

Thinking of beer.... I need to maintain my fluids....

R.

Didn't you know that Gandalf is always right 

 Looks like the foreign office has just done that..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51288672

... to mainland China, not including Hong Kong or Macau.

Which is a fair and proportionate course of action given the current situation. 

At least you wont have to live through Brexit and Trump's re-election

Worthwhile watching:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJBYwUtB83o

"No transparency [has] just left people guessing and panicking."

China coronavirus: Misinformation spreads online about origin and scale
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-51271037

Roger

4 cases in Germany now.

All in bavaria and linked with the initial German case.

Australia has replicated the virus. We are on the way to developing a vaccine.

And now:

Coronavirus: BA suspends flights to and from mainland China

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51292590

and, following on from Q's post...

Australian lab first outside of China to copy coronavirus, helping vaccine push

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-29/wuhan-coronavirus-created-in-australian-lab-outside-of-china/11906390

Don't hold your breath!

R.

Just a year away...

The Internet breeds trolls and conspiracy theorists. We shouldn’t be surprised but some of it is just ridiculous. Almost more disappointing is that people believe and disseminate this stuff so that it gains traction.

India among top 30 countries at 'high risk' from coronavirus spread, reveals a study.

India is among the top 30 countries at "high-risk" from the spread of the deadly coronavirus, according to a study based on the number of air travellers predicted to arrive in the countries from the worst affected cities in China. Researchers from the University of Southampton in the UK compiled a list of cities and countries they believe are at high risk from the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) -- which has killed over 100 people so far, and infected thousands.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51292590 

Not surprising, I suppose, given the current rate of spread.

I think it is brilliant that non-medical folks are interested enough to read up on the subject and to post their thoughts, as I am sure you would agree, Gandalf. As non-meteorologist I am always grateful to the experts here for the tolerant leeway they give me.

There is nothing wrong with asking "what if" or in making a counter case to test an idea on others. However, it remains a truism that the more you get to know the more you realise how much you do not yet know and may never know. I regard myself as a beginner - even though I have been a boffin for 60+ years. A friend in his 80s said to me - I wish I believed in reincarnation - I need 3 lifetimes to learn about everything I want to know. Humility is a useful tool for trolls and conspiracy theorists to cultivate.

When people are posting "derivative facts" here I'd encourage them to try to name their sources - and if something is speculative, why not just say so? It's ok to speculate and say "what if?"

Prediction is a key scientific tool - so can anyone apply their Met skills to looking at the epidemiological data available, doing a some "model-think" - and making a prediction on number of cases, rate of spread, or mortality? It would be great if a weather expert could predict disease behaviour more accurately than the epidemiologists.

Roger

As the saying goes, “a little knowledge is a dangerous thing”

I’ve found that often the more you know the more you realise what you don’t know.  Sometimes things seem very simple at a superficial level when they are anything but.

I guess one useful parallel with weather prediction would be ensemble data: the ability to tweak the key assumptions and see how that affects the predicted outcome. Maybe that’s already done as it seems so obvious.  

You'd need to ask a present-day epidemiologist what models they now use, Gandalf. There are plenty of departments to be found on the web doing mathematical modelling of disease. No doubt there are some great new courses that cover this interface between weather and disease. It's all come a long way over the past 50 years. Maybe some young met-wizard on TWO can have a go and show this old fart what can be done using Met-stat techniques?

R

This is very disturbing. Found this on twitter.

 https://www.latestly.com/india/news/coronavirus-outbreak-homeopathy-effective-in-prevention-of-novel-virus-infections-says-ayush-ministry-1501670.html

Advocating homeopathy as a cure to nCov.

Not only is homeopathy quackery BS, but creating homeopathic nCov will spread the infection and cause people to get sick.

Shameful the [censored]promoting this.

But this is very good news, Q! It's natural selection in progress - one of nature's miracles.

Zaps the very folks who promote the ridiculous concept. R.

Correction: I put the wrong link in that post, I've corrected it now in the OP.

The more effective personal hygiene methods are recommended further down the article , so I hope people will scroll that far. I wish they'd recommended those as first priority and then at least a homeopathic top-up wouldn't do any harm

Papua New Guinea is partially shutting it's borders now.

Again, do not go to SE Asia, there is a very real risk you could end up stuck there.