The Weather Outlook

Remove ads from site

Lionel Hutz
28 January 2020 14:08:02

https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2020/0128/1111351-coronavirus/

The above would concern me a bit as regards the infectiousness of the disease. The German who contracted the disease seems to have had fairly casual contact with the infected person from whom she caught the illness. Anecdotal, I know, but....

Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL



Quantum
28 January 2020 14:10:19

 

Yes and avoid touching your face.

Also avoid going on a 2 week holiday to SE Asia..... OOPS. (that's what I'm doing). 

 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

When/where are you going? I'd say there is a genuine risk you could end up trapped there.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

warrenb
28 January 2020 14:12:52
We need to look at when cases began to be reported, this was on the 17th January. This is less than the possible incubation period of the infection. The death toll is 106, but this is from the base not from today but possibly 5 to 6 days previous. This would give a mortality rate of around 10-15% at present, what is also not being reported is the condition of those that have the virus..

When you see stories of survivors being released from hospital, these do not reassure me, rather the fact that survivors are being reported is quite worrying that surviving is of note.

Tonbridge 45m 
Joe Bloggs
28 January 2020 14:14:58

 

In all seriousness, I'd cancel.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

I'd only do that if "official channels" told me it'd be the wise thing to do.

You are not an official channel.

I'm mildly concerned, but not panicked at this stage. The mild concern is there because things could change quite quickly. 

There is absolutely no official travel advice at the moment which advises against travel to SE Asia. 

xioni2
28 January 2020 14:17:03

We need to look at when cases began to be reported, this was on the 17th January.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 

I think the first reported cases were at the end of December (the 31st I believe), or at least this is when the WHO was alerted.

warrenb
28 January 2020 14:22:43

 

I think the first reported cases were at the end of December (the 31st I believe), or at least this is when the WHO was alerted.

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

Indeed it was, but the confirmed case count started on the 17th January with 41, so we can only extrapolate figures from this point. With the city on lockdown , how many cases are just sitting at home ?

Tonbridge 45m 
Quantum
28 January 2020 14:34:19

We need to look at when cases began to be reported, this was on the 17th January. This is less than the possible incubation period of the infection. The death toll is 106, but this is from the base not from today but possibly 5 to 6 days previous. This would give a mortality rate of around 10-15% at present, what is also not being reported is the condition of those that have the virus..
When you see stories of survivors being released from hospital, these do not reassure me, rather the fact that survivors are being reported is quite worrying that surviving is of note.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 

That's what I'm thinking. I think a 10% mortality rate is a conservative estimate.

Also I think it might even be longer than 5 or 6 days. There are suggestions it could be as high as 2 weeks from the symptons onset which means an even higher fatality rate.

The fact that 25% of people are in critical condition today is also shocking.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Quantum
28 January 2020 14:35:43

 

I'd only do that if "official channels" told me it'd be the wise thing to do.

You are not an official channel.

I'm mildly concerned, but not panicked at this stage. The mild concern is there because things could change quite quickly. 

There is absolutely no official travel advice at the moment which advises against travel to SE Asia. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Which country?

If you go to SE Asia you could end up being caught in a quarantine. This thing is unpredictable and only seems to be getting worse.

A holiday is not worth it. Cancel.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Quantum
28 January 2020 14:42:43

If we use the recoveries to crudely estimate how long it takes the disease to run its course then it's around 10 days (assuming a relatively low mortality rate)

But symptoms only become severe after 5 days.

Plus another 7 days for the incubation period.

 

More than 3 weeks from infection to recovery.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Heavy Weather 2013
28 January 2020 14:43:02

Thailand 'not able to stop the spread' of new coronavirus

https://news.sky.com/story/thailand-not-able-to-stop-the-spread-of-new-coronavirus-11919860

Meanwhile, thankfully no confirmed cases 'yet' in the UK

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Quantum
28 January 2020 14:44:07

Also means we arn't due to start seeing deaths in Europe until about the 3rd February.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Gandalf The White
28 January 2020 14:45:36
A useful piece in the Guardian which is worth reading if you’re panicking

https://www.theguardian.com/science/live/2020/jan/28/coronavirus-first-death-in-beijing-as-us-issues-new-china-travel-warning-live-updates 

The evidence is that catching the virus from someone requires close and prolonged contact. Two examples: someone tending his sick father and someone on a training course with someone from China. In the latter case the Chinese lady fell ill when she returned home so there was a period before she showed symptoms when she passed on the virus. But only one other attendee has caught it.

Expert opinion based on evidence to date is that transmission isn’t easy.

As for travel to SE Asia, currently there are a minuscule number of cases.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Quantum
28 January 2020 14:48:30

A useful piece in the Guardian which is worth reading if you’re panicking

https://www.theguardian.com/science/live/2020/jan/28/coronavirus-first-death-in-beijing-as-us-issues-new-china-travel-warning-live-updates

The evidence is that catching the virus from someone requires close and prolonged contact. Two examples: someone tending his sick father and someone on a training course with someone from China. In the latter case the Chinese lady fell ill when she returned home so there was a period before she showed symptoms when she passed on the virus. But only one other attendee has caught it.

Expert opinion based on evidence to date is that transmission isn’t easy.

As for travel to SE Asia, currently there are a minuscule number of cases.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

As xioni pointed out this thing was in China before xmas. It takes several weeks to make people seriously ill. We are due to see an explosion of cases in SE Asia, Thailand may already be on the brink. Travel to SE asia at the moment seems a very bad idea.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Quantum
28 January 2020 14:50:43

Also it goes without saying you don't put entire cities into quarantine if there is nothing to worry about.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Lionel Hutz
28 January 2020 14:50:51

A useful piece in the Guardian which is worth reading if you’re panicking

https://www.theguardian.com/science/live/2020/jan/28/coronavirus-first-death-in-beijing-as-us-issues-new-china-travel-warning-live-updates

The evidence is that catching the virus from someone requires close and prolonged contact. Two examples: someone tending his sick father and someone on a training course with someone from China. In the latter case the Chinese lady fell ill when she returned home so there was a period before she showed symptoms when she passed on the virus. But only one other attendee has caught it.

Expert opinion based on evidence to date is that transmission isn’t easy.

As for travel to SE Asia, currently there are a minuscule number of cases.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2020/0128/1111351-coronavirus/

Sorry to repeat this one but the above suggests that transmission is a little easier than that. As I said above, I appreciate that this is anecdotal.

Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL



xioni2
28 January 2020 14:52:49

 I'd only do that if "official channels" told me it'd be the wise thing to do.

You are not an official channel.

I'm mildly concerned, but not panicked at this stage. The mild concern is there because things could change quite quickly. 

There is absolutely no official travel advice at the moment which advises against travel to SE Asia. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

I wouldn't go to China now, but SE Asia is a different story.  I know there is currently no official advice against travelling there, but I'd weigh all my options. I'd probably go and be extra cautious.

Who knows anyway, the UK could be like a zombieland in a few weeks time, that'd certainly match Brexit Britain.   

Gandalf The White
28 January 2020 14:54:49

Also it goes without saying you don't put entire cities into quarantine if there is nothing to worry about.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

We’re talking about China, a police state which is incredibly tightly controlled and with very large army and police forces. They can shut down cities at the snap of their fingers.  

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Quantum
28 January 2020 14:56:20

 

We’re talking about China, a police state which is incredibly tightly controlled and with very large army and police forces. They can shut down cities at the snap of their fingers.  

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

And it stands to reason that if this was possible to essily contain it would have already been contained.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Quantum
28 January 2020 14:58:45

 

I wouldn't go to China now, but SE Asia is a different story.  I know there is currently no official advice against travelling there, but I'd weigh all my options. I'd probably go and be extra cautious.

Who knows anyway, the UK could be like a zombieland in a few weeks time, that'd certainly match Brexit Britain.   

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

I mean at least it's nice to know you suddenly have complete faith in the new conservative government!

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Heavy Weather 2013
28 January 2020 14:59:01

976 patients in China are currently in a critical condition:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Quantum
28 January 2020 15:00:45

An 87 YO woman from Wuhan is added to the list of recoveries. That is some good news at least.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Quantum
28 January 2020 15:01:59

976 patients in China are currently in a critical condition:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

And it's the current rather than cumulative number.

So at the very least the risk of becoming critical is 1/4 but it could be even higher than that.

How many of those in critical will eventually die? If it's, say, 1/2 then the mortality rate would be around 12%.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

xioni2
28 January 2020 15:02:08

 I mean at least it's nice to know you suddenly have complete faith in the new conservative government!

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Don't be silly, I meant advice from the WHO and the ECDC.

 

Joe Bloggs
28 January 2020 15:04:44

 

Which country?

If you go to SE Asia you could end up being caught in a quarantine. This thing is unpredictable and only seems to be getting worse.

A holiday is not worth it. Cancel.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

I'm not going to tell you which country as you will only make me feel worse.  Let's just say it isn't a place famous for its healthcare, albeit there is only one reported case there currently.

I start in Singapore. 

I'll cancel if and when I receive official advice, to do so, from the Foreign Office or the WHO. To do so now would be an embarrassing overreaction, not to mention a huge (and I mean huge) loss of money. I'm not sure if my insurance would cover it. 

While I'm there I will of course take all the precautions necessary, just like I presume Gandalf is doing now, who is also in SE Asia. 

Quantum
28 January 2020 15:04:46

 

Don't be silly, I meant advice from the WHO and the ECDC.

 

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

WHO, who admited that they had undrestimated the scale of the virus and puts the global risk now 'High'?

What part of any of this says to you, let's go on a holiday to SE Asia?

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Remove ads from site