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Gandalf The White
23 January 2020 20:14:26

 

I agree. Any virus making the jump to humans for the first time is concerning but how many endemics have there been in the past 20 years that ultimately just petered out? Swine flu? Ebola? Zika? SARS? 

I thought mad cow disease was far more concerning at the time given it is invariably fatal. For the most part it appears the fatalities from this new virus are elderly and immuno-compromised, as you would expect.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

Ebola most definitely did not ‘peter out’: it required a significant and sustained effort involving international expertise.  Ebola is a seriously scary virus.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



The Beast from the East
23 January 2020 20:35:22

 

That is because China has persuaded them not to and it explains the draconian measures taken within China to try to stem the spread.

However, the genie is out of the bottle and if cases start appearing in India and Africa, it will be game over, since that would make managing the spread of the virus completely impossible.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

An expert on the news says it only has a 2% mortality rate, so its no different to any normal flu. Old people, those with pre existing respiratory conditions and the very young will be vulnerable

Most people who have got it have fully recovered!

Why is this such a big news story?

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Bugglesgate
23 January 2020 20:40:24

 

An expert on the news says it only has a 2% mortality rate, so its no different to any normal flu. Old people, those with pre existing respiratory conditions and the very young will be vulnerable

Most people who have got it have fully recovered!

Why is this such a big news story?

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

 

Because it has crossed the species barrier ?

Chris (It,its)

Between Newbury and Basingstoke

"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"

CreweCold
23 January 2020 20:40:31

 

An expert on the news says it only has a 2% mortality rate, so its no different to any normal flu. Old people, those with pre existing respiratory conditions and the very young will be vulnerable

Most people who have got it have fully recovered!

Why is this such a big news story?

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

It'll be staving off the pneumonia that will be the tricky bit. Get that and your prognosis isn't good.

The trouble with the British is they don't know when to take bed rest. I can tell you from first hand experience, the more you soldier on through a virus, the longer it takes to shift...sometimes adding 4 or 5 days on to a common cold even. Stay at home, in bed, resting and lightly eating where you can and even a heavy cold will clear up in 3 days.

The more your body encounters other pathogens whilst trying to overcome a virus, the more stress you put on your immune system and the more you put yourself at risk from complications.

Crewe, Cheshire

55 metres above sea level

Essan
23 January 2020 21:13:16

 

An expert on the news says it only has a 2% mortality rate, so its no different to any normal flu. Old people, those with pre existing respiratory conditions and the very young will be vulnerable

Most people who have got it have fully recovered!

Why is this such a big news story?

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Quiet news week.  We haven't all died from Brexit, Harry moving to Canada hasn't caused a mutant star goat to eat the sun, despite confident predictions, and after 20 weeks of predicting the heaviest snowfall and coldest winter in record they have finally realised that such headlines are no longer getting them sales.  

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News 

Look in the doubt we've wallowed, look at the leaders we've followed, look at the lies we've swallowed, and I don't want to hear no more

The Beast from the East
23 January 2020 21:35:08

 

 

Because it has crossed the species barrier ?

Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 

thats nothing new though. It’s interesting from a scientific point of view but it’s not a mass killer 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Gandalf The White
23 January 2020 21:35:14

 

An expert on the news says it only has a 2% mortality rate, so its no different to any normal flu. Old people, those with pre existing respiratory conditions and the very young will be vulnerable

Most people who have got it have fully recovered!

Why is this such a big news story?

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

You are going to believe an expert with insufficient data to make that call???  

Fact: there isn’t anything like a sufficient number of cases to know the mortality rate. 

Fact: the mortality rate from flu is nothing like 2%: you’re out by a factor of 100 or more.  Even the 1918 outbreak only reached 2.5%

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Gandalf The White
23 January 2020 21:38:19

 

thats nothing new though. It’s interesting from a scientific point of view but it’s not a mass killer 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

It may not be new but it is viruses residing in wild animals and making the jump to humans that pose the biggest and unmanageable threat: you can’t eradicate them and you can’t predict what virus will make the leap or how it might mutate.

This is the issue that concerns the scientific community looking at this area. I’d sooner trust the experts.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Gandalf The White
23 January 2020 21:41:15



Quiet news week.  We haven't all died from Brexit, Harry moving to Canada hasn't caused a mutant star goat to eat the sun, despite confident predictions, and after 20 weeks of predicting the heaviest snowfall and coldest winter in record they have finally realised that such headlines are no longer getting them sales.  

Originally Posted by: Essan 

Possibly, but that sounds horribly close to a conspiracy theory.

Of course it might be making the news because it’s newsworthy and potentially serious.

I’m sure our overstretched NHS really needs a novel virus causing an increase in hospital admissions.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Devonian
23 January 2020 22:04:03

 

Ebola most definitely did not ‘peter out’: it required a significant and sustained effort involving international expertise.  Ebola is a seriously scary virus.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

I think this might be the point.

If Ebola hadn't been contained, it might well have been another story. Further, if medical treatment wasn't as good as it is then who knows.

Atm, I don't think this virus seems all that serious, but is that because a massive effort is put in every time a new virus emerges and will be put in to containing this one, or that's it's not serious? A bit of both perhaps.

Do we know if this is a fire drill or a fire? Nope, but it's wise to take precautions.

Arcus
23 January 2020 22:06:18

 

 

Because it has crossed the species barrier ?

Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 

Because a new virus is something that we cannot reliably extrapolate.

This winter's flu vaccine 4/4 was agreed last spring. It has to be to mass produce to get the vaccines out in time. Sadly they got 3/4 rather than 4/4 on the vaccine. The 1/4 is now doing the rounds so that even those having had the Flu vaccine are now at risk into late winter from the 1/4. But that is the nature of these things.

One only hopes that CoronaNov is not a big CSV.

Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

Devonian
23 January 2020 22:12:24

 

Because a new virus is something that we cannot reliably extrapolate.

This winter's flu vaccine 4/4 was agreed last spring. It has to be to mass produce to get the vaccines out in time. Sadly they got 3/4 rather than 4/4 on the vaccine. The 1/4 is now doing the rounds so that even those having had the Flu vaccine are now at risk into late winter from the 1/4. But that is the nature of these things.

One only hopes that CoronaNov is not a big CSV.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

I'm afraid I don't understand any of the highlighted lingo

Humm, coronanov - the current corona virus discovered in November?

Arcus
23 January 2020 22:20:37

 

I'm afraid I don't understand any of the highlighted lingo

Originally Posted by: Devonian 

CSV = continually shifting virus. The common cold is the best example - it shifts it's makeup all the time.

Flu is similar. The use of anitvirals encourages mutation in the virus. Our attempts to preempt every strain of Flu each year only encourages the virus to mutate into something to beat the drug. Some have argued that we should not vaccinate at all and accept the deaths each year to prevent mutation --- it's a race that in the end we may not be able to win.

Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

Devonian
23 January 2020 22:25:49

 

CSV = continually shifting virus. The common cold is the best example - it shifts it's makeup all the time.

Flu is similar. The use of anitvirals encourages mutation in the virus. Our attempts to preempt every strain of Flu each year only encourages the virus to mutate into something to beat the drug. Some have argued that we should not vaccinate at all and accept the deaths each year to prevent mutation --- it's a race that in the end we may not be able to win.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

Ta.

As unvaccinated people got each strain, or were resistant, immunity levels would increase and the virus still mutate? Vaccination speeds this up I guess.

I guess we're luck polio and others didn't mutate fast.

fairweather
24 January 2020 00:37:10
I was quite alarmed that there was a city in China called Wuhan that I'd never heard of before with a population bigger than London. Why weren't we told 🙂
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Gandalf The White
24 January 2020 02:02:57

 

Ta.

As unvaccinated people got each strain, or were resistant, immunity levels would increase and the virus still mutate? Vaccination speeds this up I guess.

I guess we're luck polio and others didn't mutate fast.

Originally Posted by: Devonian 

i may be wrong here but I think there’s a difference between vaccines and antivirals. Vaccines provide immunity whilst antivirals aid the immune system in tackling a virus.

if you reach the ‘herd protection’ level then the virus dies out because there are insufficient potential hosts.  With antivirals the virus doesn’t die out and therefore there is the potential for mutations.

If I understand correctly the cold/flu type viruses are particularly adept at mutating.  

 

 

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



CreweCold
24 January 2020 05:13:33

 

i may be wrong here but I think there’s a difference between vaccines and antivirals. Vaccines provide immunity whilst antivirals aid the immune system in tackling a virus.

if you reach the ‘herd protection’ level then the virus dies out because there are insufficient potential hosts.  With antivirals the virus doesn’t die out and therefore there is the potential for mutations.

If I understand correctly the cold/flu type viruses are particularly adept at mutating.  

 

 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

I was reading up on viruses and they really are quite sinister things. They are not technically 'living' but are kind of like robots that can adapt and learn.

For example, norovirus will purposefully slow down digestion of the host prior to symptoms onset so that the stomach loads with as much material as possible in order to further spread. 

Absolute nasty things.

Here's something to ponder. Unlike bacteria, a virion itself poses no physical threat. It's the bodies own immune response that does the damage. A virion will insert it's own genetic material into healthy host cells and then the immune system will basically fight what were once healthy cells. Without this such extreme immune reaction, most viruses would be toothless and become passive.

Crewe, Cheshire

55 metres above sea level

Gandalf The White
24 January 2020 05:30:56

 

I was reading up on viruses and they really are quite sinister things. They are not technically 'living' but are kind of like robots that can adapt and learn.

For example, norovirus will purposefully slow down digestion of the host prior to symptoms onset so that the stomach loads with as much material as possible in order to further spread. 

Absolute nasty things.

Here's something to ponder. Unlike bacteria, a virion itself poses no physical threat. It's the bodies own immune response that does the damage. A virion will insert it's own genetic material into healthy host cells and then the immune system will basically fight what were once healthy cells. Without this such extreme immune reaction, most viruses would be toothless and become passive.

Originally Posted by: CreweCold 

Actually it’s not helpful to the virus to kill the host until it’s had the opportunity to spread. The successful ones infect the host and find effective ways to transmit the virus on to new hosts. Airborne ones are, I think, the most effective: coughing, sneezing, even just breathing.  Others use different vectors: Ebola via blood, for example.  Ones that need bodily contact are less readily transmitted.

You can’t say all viruses are bad any more than you can say that all bacteria are bad: there are a huge number of viruses and many are harmless or even beneficial.

Also, viruses are used in bioengineering: there’s a thread on a new cancer treatment which depends on engineering viruses to put genetically modified T-cells into the body, for example.

 

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



CreweCold
24 January 2020 06:05:22

 

Actually it’s not helpful to the virus to kill the host until it’s had the opportunity to spread. The successful ones infect the host and find effective ways to transmit the virus on to new hosts. Airborne ones are, I think, the most effective: coughing, sneezing, even just breathing.  Others use different vectors: Ebola via blood, for example.  Ones that need bodily contact are less readily transmitted.

You can’t say all viruses are bad any more than you can say that all bacteria are bad: there are a huge number of viruses and many are harmless or even beneficial.

Also, viruses are used in bioengineering: there’s a thread on a new cancer treatment which depends on engineering viruses to put genetically modified T-cells into the body, for example.

 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Yes and that's the key...us manipulating them in order for them to manipulate us in a beneficial way, such as your above example.

I think viruses may be the key to cancer treatment in the long run. If we can engineer a virus to target cancer cells then we will have effectively found a way to destroy cancer quickly.

 

Crewe, Cheshire

55 metres above sea level

Roger Parsons
24 January 2020 06:20:25

Actually it’s not helpful to the virus to kill the host until it’s had the opportunity to spread. The successful ones infect the host and find effective ways to transmit the virus on to new hosts. Airborne ones are, I think, the most effective: coughing, sneezing, even just breathing.  Others use different vectors: Ebola via blood, for example.  Ones that need bodily contact are less readily transmitted.

You can’t say all viruses are bad any more than you can say that all bacteria are bad: there are a huge number of viruses and many are harmless or even beneficial.

Also, viruses are used in bioengineering: there’s a thread on a new cancer treatment which depends on engineering viruses to put genetically modified T-cells into the body, for example.

 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Right, Gandalf - it's a truism that a well-adapted parasite does not kill its host before it has had an opportunity to propagate. I posted a couple of epidemiology points in now-locked Science thread on this subject to which all are welcome to refer and PM me to discuss further. I shan't repost them here. Roger

RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

CreweCold
24 January 2020 06:28:05

 

Right, Gandalf - it's a truism that a well-adapted parasite does not kill it's host before it has had an opportunity to propagate. I posted a couple of epidemiology points in now-locked Science thread on this subject to which all are welcome to refer and PM me to discuss further. I shan't repost them here. Roger

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 

Yes this is true, however- this is a new virus that has just made the transition to be able to affect humans. Therefore it stands to reason that the initial outbreak of this could be more severe than after a few mutations.

You don't want to catch this in its first generation.

Crewe, Cheshire

55 metres above sea level

Roger Parsons
24 January 2020 06:37:11

Yes this is true, however- this is a new virus that has just made the transition to be able to affect humans. Therefore it stands to reason that the initial outbreak of this could be more severe than after a few mutations.

You don't want to catch this in its first generation.

Originally Posted by: CreweCold 

I refer you to my earlier posts in the Science forum, in particular my points about anthropozoonoses, reservoir hosts and epidemiological triads.

Roger

RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
24 January 2020 07:00:44

 

i may be wrong here but I think there’s a difference between vaccines and antivirals. Vaccines provide immunity whilst antivirals aid the immune system in tackling a virus.

if you reach the ‘herd protection’ level then the virus dies out because there are insufficient potential hosts.  With antivirals the virus doesn’t die out and therefore there is the potential for mutations.

If I understand correctly the cold/flu type viruses are particularly adept at mutating.   

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Indeed - Rhoda and I were recently offered (and accepted) an anti-pneumonia jab but it was emphasised that this offered protection against bacterial infection, not viral, pneumonia being a general description of fluid on the lung.

In response to CC, if the virus is going to mutate, I'd rather catch it early and acquire some personal antibody protection before it mutates into something nastier.

And despite the big panic in China in wearing facemasks, the expert view seems to be that old-fashioned hygiene is much more effective 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51205344

"The NHS says the best way to avoid catching viruses such as flu is to:

  • regularly wash your hands with warm water and soap

  • avoid touching your eyes and nose wherever possible

... masks have to be worn correctly, changed frequently and got rid of safely if they were to work properly"

Finally, you youngsters should be calm about this as it stands at the moment. A few days in bed as per any dose of flu and you should be fine. It's the elderly like me (78 this weekend) who have cause to worry.

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Joe Bloggs
24 January 2020 07:19:53

 

I was reading up on viruses and they really are quite sinister things. They are not technically 'living' but are kind of like robots that can adapt and learn.

For example, norovirus will purposefully slow down digestion of the host prior to symptoms onset so that the stomach loads with as much material as possible in order to further spread. 

Absolute nasty things.

 

Originally Posted by: CreweCold 



That is absolutely horrible! Like something out of a horror film! I can’t say I’ve had the norovirus (touch wood), but know of many who have. 

The past two winter seasons I’ve really struggled with other viral infections though - cold after cold after cold. 

I get plenty of exercise and eat well, I personally blame my job and the associated stress. I can’t stay off work if I have a mild cold - it’s just not feasible in my line of work. 

Gandalf The White
24 January 2020 07:25:12

 

Indeed - Rhoda and I were recently offered (and accepted) an anti-pneumonia jab but it was emphasised that this offered protection against bacterial infection, not viral, pneumonia being a general description of fluid on the lung.

In response to CC, if the virus is going to mutate, I'd rather catch it early and acquire some personal antibody protection before it mutates into something nastier.

And despite the big panic in China in wearing facemasks, the expert view seems to be that old-fashioned hygiene is much more effective 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51205344

"The NHS says the best way to avoid catching viruses such as flu is to:

  • regularly wash your hands with warm water and soap

  • avoid touching your eyes and nose wherever possible

... masks have to be worn correctly, changed frequently and got rid of safely if they were to work properly"

Finally, you youngsters should be calm about this as it stands at the moment. A few days in bed as per any dose of flu and you should be fine. It's the elderly like me (78 this weekend) who have cause to worry.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

I read overnight that the initial analysis suggests the source was a snake; a species hop from a reptile is very unusual.

I’m a decade younger than you but unlike you we’ve just arrived in Singapore.... 

Again, overnight reading suggested a 25% rate of the infection being serious’ but fatalities still limited to those with other health issues.

 

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



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