Quite a shift in the figures over the past few days. My CET estimate has come down quite a bit. The warmer weather has taken longer to arrive than expected. Also the models now picking up on a cool down in the final 2-3 days of the month.

Latest November CET estimate is just 6.33C. I am currently running 0.38C below Hadley so quite a big downward adjustment looks likely.

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Won't be enough for me though sadly; I'll be sliding downwards after this month, and you'll be among those who tread on my head as you go past!

You could be closer than the majority though Bertie!  

Not sure Caz- those yellow bars of GW's add 15C on to the LTA- which is 7.1 in his calculations. Each of those days is already .8 above our current 6.3 just by meeting the LTA. That suggests about another 4C and must surely mean about a .6 rise to 6.9. It'll have to be a pretty gravitational downjustment to drop below 6- has it ever been downjusted by a whole degree?

 

Not sure Caz- those yellow bars of GW's add 15C on to the LTA- which is 7.1 in his calculations. Each of those days is already .8 above our current 6.3 just by meeting the LTA. That suggests about another 4C and must surely mean about a .6 rise to 6.9. It'll have to be a pretty gravitational downjustment to drop below 6- has it ever been downjusted by a whole degree?

Maybe that’s not What GW meant!  I wasn’t looking at the yellow bars!  

Met Office Hadley       6.3c.    Anomaly    -0.6c Provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                   6.29c    Anomaly    -0.63c

Netweather                6.82c    Anomaly    -0.09c

Peasedown St John   7.0c.    Anomaly    -0.6c.      

  So it’s possible it could even end below 6c!   Ouch!

I think that's unlikely. GW is saying that HIS estimate is that the month will finish on 6.33C, implying that the final provisional figure will be 6.71C (0.38C higher) but will then be revised down. Suits me fine! 

 

I think that's unlikely. GW is saying that HIS estimate is that the month will finish on 6.33C, implying that the final provisional figure will be 6.71C (0.38C higher) but will then be revised down. Suits me fine! 

  Ahh yes!  That would be great for you Darren!  It wouldn’t be too bad for me either!  

This would reduce my lead to 0.29C going into the final month and I don't think I can really have any complaints about that!

Two things for me to hope for.

The downgrade isnt's quite as much as GW predicts and the colder weather predicted for the very end of the month is delayed by a couple of days. The onset of cold weather often does seem to get delayed so I hope so this time!

On the rise today.

MetOffice Hadley      6.5c.    Anomaly     -0.4c.  Provisional to 25th.

Metcheck                  6.44c   Anomaly       -0.48c

Netweather               6.96c   Anomaly       0.07c

Peasedown St John  7.1c     Anomaly    -0.5c.   

Met Office Hadley       6.7c.       Anomaly     -0.2c. Provisional to26th.

Metcheck                    6.57c      Anomaly      -0.36c

Netweather                 7.09c      Anomaly      0.2c

Peasedown St John    7.3c     Anomaly     -0.3c.        

Met Office Hadley       6.7c.       Anomaly     -0.2c. Provisional to26th.

Metcheck                    6.57c      Anomaly      -0.36c

Netweather                 7.09c      Anomaly      0.2c

Peasedown St John    7.3c     Anomaly     -0.3c.        

Keep going up, LOL!

(I am so screwed this month )

6.7! I'm terminated!!

Met Office Hadley        6.7c.       Anomaly        0.0c. Provisional to 27th.

Metcheck                     6,3c        Anomaly        -0.29c.

Netweather                  7.17c      Anomaly        0.28c.

Peasedown St John    7.3c      Anomaly      -0.3c.

My Prediction was 6.7c.  Will not stay that way with 4 days averages to take into consideration, plus final adjustments.      

Met Office Hadley        6.7c.       Anomaly        0.0c. Provisional to 27th.

Metcheck                     6,3c        Anomaly        -0.29c.

Netweather                  7.17c      Anomaly        0.28c.

Peasedown St John    7.3c      Anomaly      -0.3c.

 

My Prediction was 6.7c.  Will not stay that way with 4 days averages to take into consideration, plus final adjustments.      

I'm not surprised to see it warming up in time for the start of the actual winter when that trend will no doubt continue in the manner in which it normally does these days.

The CET has held up fairly well over the past few days. A couple of quite chilly days to end the month though.

Currently expecting the CET to finish at 6.26C.

Met Office Hadley         6.8c.       Anomaly      0.1c. Provisional to 28th.

Metcheck                      6.58c      Anomaly      -0.34c

Netweather                   7.19c      Anomaly      0.3c

Peasedown St John     7.3c.      Anomaly       -0.3c. 

Where's GW with his December CET thread?

Where's GW with his December CET thread?

 

I'm looking out for it ready to sticky it as soon as I see it.