ECM 192 throwing up the mid Atlantic ridge in-line with gfs
Will it lead to the same polar outbreak though?

There is still a very large spread in the GFS ensembles in early December. This time the op run was one of the coldest options. Cold or mild still very much realistic options for the start of winter.

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The pattern for this week is much the same as yesterday, Atlantic depressions of no great strength moving across the UK (though it has to be said that the present one is sticking aound and producing more rain than predicted a few days ago). Then - excitement for cold rampers - the forecast yesterday of a narrow N-S ridge over the UK for week 2 has been replaced by a mid-Atlantic ridge with spectacular northerlies for Wed-Thu 4-5 Dec - and driven by LP in the North Sea so snow at least for the hills. Then another bite on Sun 8th (could the Express be right for once? Wait and see if it verifies!)

ECM, after a similar week 1, develops a feature like GFS but for Mon 2nd, earlier and not as intense.

GEFS shows above average temps generally with most rain in the S & W in week 1, then most runs colder in week 2 (though not lasting) and more pptn in the N & E. That fits with the GFS as you'd expect but not as spectacular.

 

 

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The runs this morning do little for confidence and illustrate the uncertainty. The finite risk of a polar outbreak in early December is intriguing.

At least it will be mild in Shropshire though - apparently it always is 😉

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The runs this morning do little for confidence and illustrate the uncertainty. The finite risk of a polar outbreak in early December is intriguing.

At least it will be mild in Shropshire though - apparently it always is 😉

Only in the winter, nobody has ever heard what it like the rest of the year. 

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The runs this morning do little for confidence and illustrate the uncertainty. The finite risk of a polar outbreak in early December is intriguing.

At least it will be mild in Shropshire though - apparently it always is 😉

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Gfs playing catch up again,slight difference in its ensembles compared to yesterday😃

The runs this morning do little for confidence and illustrate the uncertainty. The finite risk of a polar outbreak in early December is intriguing.

At least it will be mild in Shropshire though - apparently it always is 😉

Some really good runs today Neil, GFS ens trending down also, lots to be positive about today, the chances of an early Dec cold outbreak increasing.

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Looking ahead in the fairly reliable time-frame, it appears from GEFS rainfall predictions that the last week in November could well be rather wet in this corner of the country.  But at least we can console ourselves with the high likelihood that at least it will be mild.

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Some really good runs today Neil, GFS ens trending down also, lots to be positive about today, the chances of an early Dec cold outbreak increasing.

Excellent GFS run if you like negative NAO possibilities and cold weather. The promising thing is that changes are now approaching the semi-reliable and we are not in a zonal rut right now.

Once the UK is in a zonal rut, it proves extremely hard to shift it, so the longer we can avoid traditional, unrelenting zonality, the better for our winter prospects.

 

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Hopefully the election will have to be cancelled

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Excellent GFS run if you like negative NAO possibilities and cold weather. The promising thing is that changes are now approaching the semi-reliable and we are not in a zonal rut right now.

Once the UK is in a zonal rut, it proves extremely hard to shift it, so the longer we can avoid traditional, unrelenting zonality, the better for our winter prospects.

 

Let's see if the met update is more bullish today 🙂

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GFS 6Z taking a rather different evolution, but consistency at this range is too much to hope for.

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GFS 6Z taking a rather different evolution, but consistency at this range is too much to hope for.

Signs for the mid Atlantic ridge still there. A lot of uncertainty but through all the noise there is potentially something seasonal on the horizon.

as someone said earlier this morning, as long as the 12z’s hold consistency the 6z can be put aside with a little more confidence 

Still signs of a colder interlude but the signal for a high pressure bomb from the south is growing. 

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The stratospheric warming seems stronger on the 6z than the last few.

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Signs for the mid Atlantic ridge still there. A lot of uncertainty but through all the noise there is potentially something seasonal on the horizon.

as someone said earlier this morning, as long as the 12z’s hold consistency the 6z can be put aside with a little more confidence 

All that said - the main cluster of the ensembles was showing near or above average temperatures and the 0600 operational has now popped much more into the milder cluster.  A colder interlude is certainly possible late November/early December but it not a theme that seems to be maintained...... Indeed I've just had a look at the EC 30 day broadscale 500 Mb pattern forecast and if anything it hints a very climatological southwesterly by mid-December and in the run up to Christmas - much in keeping with each of the three monthly outlooks that we've seen from the MO lately. 

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Today's ECM30 shows very mild conditions persisting for much of the next month. I'd be amazed if the Met Office monthly update today overrides that guidance, unless it was signed off before the latest run.

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Today's ECM30 shows very mild conditions persisting for much of the next month. I'd be amazed if the Met Office monthly update today overrides that guidance, unless it was signed off before the latest run.

No surprise here, and this is already starting to confirm that once the upcoming milder weather sets in, that could well then be it for our winter which is just typical of our weather here in the UK.

 

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No surprise here, and this is already starting to confirm that once the upcoming milder weather sets in, that could well then be it for our winter which is just typical of our weather here in the UK.

 

 

22nd November has to be some sort of record?