Hello folks,

Here's the weather forecast for the week ahead including the traditional Written Thoughts. :D

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/weather-forecast-for-the-week-ahead.php

A very unsettled week ahead with showers, longer spells of rain, severe gales and even some #uksnow

What a difference a week makes #StormFreya

Terry Scholey's Spring and March 2019 forecasts have both been released this week - Have a look here:

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

GWV Spring 2019 forecast coming up tomorrow so watch out for that.

Thanks as ever for your support and to Brian and the Mods for making it happen! 

EDIT: Here's the GWV Spring 2019 Forecast:  https://www.gavsweathervids.com/spring-2019-weather-forecast.php

Thank You, Gavin. March winds will be blowing well. We are fore warned.

Thanks Gavin

Just a quick point on your February analogues from yesterday. The EWP rainfall figures are available for February and show that it was 84% of average so not very dry at all. The first 10 days were quite wet. After that it was much drier.

I did a quick calculation and looking just at years from 1850 onwards (which I understand is the point from which reanalysis data is available), February 2019 is the 75th driest on record. So I think you may want to discount your rainfall analogues for the top 30 driest February's on record.

Details of the February EWP are here

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/charts/daily_plots/HadEWP_Feb2019.gif

Another quick calculation looking at the 15 years either side of 2019 in the ranked EWP February rainfall series (including those pre 1850) shows that the Springs following those February's were, on average, very close to average in terms of both rainfall and temperature (but there were lots of extremes within the data). So I don't think it tells us anything that helpful.

Thanks Gavin.

I'm still interested in the weather, even though winter might be over.

^^^^^

Thanks guys! 

Cheers the data GW. I'll pass it along to James.  It's a bit late now as we've just released the Spring 2019 forecast so we'll just have to see how it goes (hopefully it won't make too much difference to the final result lol)

With the shutdown in USA writing off January for updates and UKMO being on a go slow this season of updates has been an absolute nightmare lol! 

Talking of which here is the Spring 2019 Forecast:

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/spring-2019-weather-forecast.php

Summer 2019 updates begin next Sunday (10th March)