We've been told this year that everything is place for HLB but at various points the downwelling of the QBO has gone against us, the MJO, events in the Indian Ocean - just one factor hasn't fallen into place. But back then years ago did ALL of these factors keep falling into place again and again ? I just don't get it.
It could be a case of "the more you think you know, the less you actually know". I remember the old days when snow on the ground was a commonplace thing, along with midwinter easterlies dragging in deep cold 850s (which have all but gone extinct - last year's came of course at the arse-end of winter and involved record-breakingly low thicknesses for the time of year - quite possibly a once-in-a-lifetime event).
One thing which I remember was that there was quite often a lot of confidence in the forecasts. For example, Philip Eden's forecast in the Today newspaper back in the 90s: "Cold high H will sink south over Scandinavia, bringing bitter easterlies and snow". It sure did, a few days later! Or our local forecaster on TVS, saying there'd be enough snow for a snowball fight in a few days' time - there was enough for a snowman, let alone snowballs.
There was no waffle about the MJO, QBO, NAO, AO or whatever - all of which are just another way of looking at the traditional pressure charts, reflecting different setups or patterns which often (but not always) evolve the same way. (They do, however, provide an avenue for some folks to try and look clever).
The research into SSWs is about the only really important new discovery in the last couple of decades, I'd argue, and I'd say that when one comes along it does tend to roll the dice on the hemispheric setup. Sometimes we win (last year), sometimes we lose and others gain instead (this year).
Ah well - another snowless winter down here draws to a boring end. There may be some snow to come into spring, who knows, but it's largely pointless down here as it'll be gone before you know it. The only times in my 39-year lifetime it hasn't were in 1986 (which had lots of snow on the ground throughout February) and last year (which, as mentioned, saw the lowest thicknesses since records began, back in the 40s).
I would love to see another 80s-style deep cold midwinter easterly, or even a classic white Christmas with snow falling and settling - but the former hasn't happened for decades, while the latter's never happened in my lifetime. I do wonder, sometimes, whether I'll ever see either of those before I shuffle off this mortal coil! And no, driving or going on holiday to see it doesn't count.
Edited by user
Sunday, February 10, 2019 6:05:42 PM
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Reason: Not specified