Yes. 19th January 2019 to be precise. 

That easterly carrot got dangled as close as 144 hours before being snatched away.

A few stalwarts hung around for another 2 or 3 weeks in search of the eastern promise. In their heart of hearts even they probably realised it was another opportunity gone begging.

I sense the mood in here now changing towards Spring mode. 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

Exactly.. and soon tally will be posting 15 day charts angry/annoyed because they show cold or wet conditions. 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

  am I right in thinking that we are now all in search for spring warmth?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Sorry, so I will give up hope and that's sensible - i always thought after a milder than average December and January with no HLB that there would be more chance late winter with a weaker PV, maybe a negative NAo etc to help build HLB but this isn;t to be! 

So if the mood in here is changing towards spring mode - then, am I right in thinking that we are now all in search for spring warmth? If so it's not hard to find it in the current model outputs and should we start a winter is over thread!? - If so this would be the earliest end to winter ever on two, given it's still early Feb.

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Nope - I'll be looking for sleet as late as July and as early as September. Hey, it's happened before! (Albeit in the 1880s)

Some snow would be nice before winter's out, but no sign of that in either GEFS or EPS. Another week and if it's still the same, then I'll be writing off another winter.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Yes doc I still have a feeling all this talk of spring may be a tad premature ...the met office update is still mainly talking of cold going forward.

Originally Posted by: Weathermac 

Nope - I'll be looking for sleet as late as July and as early as September. Hey, it's happened before! (Albeit in the 1880s)

Some snow would be nice before winter's out, but no sign of that in either GEFS or EPS. Another week and if it's still the same, then I'll be writing off another winter.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

LOL.  We'll have to coin the expression "summer is over" if that happens. 

Around a week of benign weather looks nailed on for much of England at least. Beyond that perhaps a more changeable spell but still with average or above temperatures to take us out of winter.

March can bring anything from spring warmth to biting easterlies, as we saw last year, so I'm not writing off cold weather yet, particularly with hints remaining in the long range forecasts.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Yes but how accurate have long range forecast been this winter? - We should be well locked into a cold/blocked or a snowy spell now one would have thought but this has failed to materialise!! We need more than hints I think and even then we need cross model agreement within the GFS.

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Silence speaks volumes! It's crazy to think that we are in the 2nd week of February now and this is the model output forum yet the last (only comment posted) was at 22:10 and this comment wasn't anything to do with tonight's 18z model output runs. - Just says it all really i.e - how uninspiring the models are tbh! I think a lot of model watching fatigue is not starting to kick in to many members including me! Most if not all of us have seen snow but we haven't really locked into any HLB blocking and there is still no sign of this given the SSW & split PV which caused the reversal of the zonal winds - now 5 or so weeks ago!

I remember typing something similar start of January and someone said to me to be patient you have the whole month of January yet and Feb etc and by that time we would have seen a tropospheric response with HLB around Iceland/Scandi or Greenland etc but now it's the 10th of February for heavens sake. Even winter 2016/2017 we had an easterly around 11th February which brought snow flurries to the south west Saturday morning of 11th Feb 2017 and lasted for 4 hours here in Exeter. Nothing settled it was just flakes of snow and then light snow on and off all morning until the snow became more sleety and followed by ice pellets in the afternoon time!

Back in February 2017 we never have a major SSW, let alone a split in the PV and reversal of zonal winds at 10hpa and 30hpa like this 2018/19 winter and back then we were in a westerly QBO - whilst that easterly back then didn't provide a major cold and snowy spell it still did occur without the help of a SSW/split vortex and zonal winds reversal at 10 and 30hpa and it was noticeable too (snow being one of them!) as you will see in the charts below. This was two years ago this weekend.(NOW!) Anyone remember this in the south?

Anyway, seeing as there is no snow, cold, HLB or easterly to discuss within the next 10 days i thought i would leave you with some below  charts which brought us an easterly two years ago today for 3-4 days between 8th and 12th February 2017:

Commencing on Wednesday night into Thursday we already see the -10c isotherm @ 850hpa approach eastern half of the country: 

Notice a trough of LP to our east developing over the N. Sea (lake effect snow) as you can see a small kink in isobars - this brings cloud and outbreaks of light snow and or snow flurries for many parts of southern and eastern England which extending westwards across south western England too!

So what Have I /we learn't? A SSW is not necessary to get HLB. It will never guarantee it! Maybe after last years SSW we were really fortunate to see such cross model agreement and not long after as well. SO of course expectations are higher! But next time I see a SSW occur I will not be raising any hopes of HLB despite what the LONG and Shorter range models forecast. They have all been utter rubbish this winter including the Met Office? The question is why? Maybe we can discuss this in further detail when winter is over in 3 weeks time. Would be nice to have a review and to see how things went so wrong in all short and longer range models!?

Anyway! So, my point is that we really don't need a major SSW to produce HLB as it proved in Feb 2017 as well and many other snowy or cold events. I guess I am confused and can't get over the fact that we have had such a major SSW with all the right qualities as alluded to above etc but with no delivery at all anywhere.

For instance, and here is a question to anyone? Would you say last weeks brief colder snap and snowy spell for parts of the south was the tropospheric response/ result of the SSW or not? Anyone? Because surely if it was then where was the blocking? I don't think so IMO we have not seen the effects on the troposphere and the NA0 has been positive all winter. IN MY OPINION - to me, LAST Thursday night/Friday's snowy spell was more to do with fate and cold zonality and an Atlantic low pressure system colliding with colder north to north westerly air mass. BUT there was NO HLB over Greenland or Iceland/Scandinavia at all!

Keen to hear about your thoughts on this? 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

LOL.  We'll have to coin the expression "summer is over" if that happens. 

Around a week of benign weather looks nailed on for much of England at least. Beyond that perhaps a more changeable spell but still with average or above temperatures to take us out of winter.

March can bring anything from spring warmth to biting easterlies, as we saw last year, so I'm not writing off cold weather yet, particularly with hints remaining in the long range forecasts.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

LRF’s haven’t been good Tally but to be fair, they did pick up the recent cold spell generally.  It just wasn’t quite as spectacular as some of us wanted it to be. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 

Exactly Caz but that colder snap end of last week wasn't the result of the SSW would you say? - because there was no HLB!?

Just re-quoting my above as it was last post on page and some members may have missed it - x2 years ago this weekend between 9th and 12th Feb 2017  we saw blocking as you may remember and yet we never even had a SSW back then to cause this!?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

The thing that has stood out for me about this winter's model output generally is that hasn't just been charts for far-off FI which have led us up the proverbial garden path. Sometimes even charts for 5-6 days ahead have been subject to change and exact details have not been pinned down until very close to the time of the event. The snowfalls that some parts of southern England experienced just over a week ago were a good example of this.

The problem I think we had going into this winter is that expectations were raised considerably early on by two things. Firstly, there were the MetO predictions from late November of notable cold before the festive season or soon after it. Secondly, there was the coming of the SSW event which began just before Xmas. I cannot say for sure as I do not work for the MetO, but it could have been the anticipated effects of the SSW on which their predictions of notable cold were based. Added to this could well have been that because there was a SSW late on last winter which delivered for us big time, some assumed that something similar would happen again this season. As others have said in the past, while SSW events can and do increase the chances of us experiencing notable cold, they are not a guarantee of this. Furthermore, while these events do help, they are not a pre-requisite for us; the severe spells of December '09/January '10 and late November/December 2010 are both cases in point.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

A couple of points. Firstly we are just entering the solar minimum and secondly I am not sure there is any definite correlation between a solar minimum and northern blocking. If the UK weather was as straightforward as solar minimum = cold winter or SSW = guaranteed cold then forecasting would be so so much easier.

Anyway on the 12z charts so far, much of the coming week looks pleasant with anticyclonic conditions dominating.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I thought we were well into solar minimum? Also winters 08/09 and 09/10 were during solar minimum and were largely blocked as well. 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83