Having made my comment above about the GFS 12z op, UKMO at 144hrs looks kind of interesting:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukm&var=1&run=12&time=144&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

A lot at the moment seems to be hanging on how much, if at all, the ridge from the Azroes High builds northwards/north-eastwards early next week. If it does build northwards to any meaningul extent then things could get interesting, but let's see what the runs indicate during the rest of this week/

I was talking from a mildo perspective 🤗

GEFS12z continue looking average to mild or very mild for much of the next 16 days.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=tmp2mmax&lglocation=london&charthour=06&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM)

12Z ENSEMBLE CHART FOR London: - A lot of scatter: But some exceptionally mild if not warm runs here!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html 

Yes, the properly mild stuff keeps getting pushed back into the far reaches of FI it seems. Those bumps in the road are becoming knobs, nay minor swellings, as time goes on..

Just landed at Dyce and it feels positively tropical 😂😉

Commiserations/congratulations*

*Delete as appropriate 

You should have come up over the weekend . Vaguely on topic, the models paint a rather uninteresting picture over the next few days if you are up for a while?

I think Im interpreting this right: ECM ensemble variations in SLP indicate that there is clearly much uncertainty as to SLP between Scotland and Iceland at day 10:

These are the best times - less BS!  Meanwhile NAVGEM takes the Met O style 144 solution forward to 180hrs:

who knows but 3 weeks until I am looking forward to some spring warmth but I can guess the pattern that will dominate March and April!! Greenland high anyone

A typical late winter early spring pattern...anyhow, the 18z is rolling out with some changes in ridge trough patterns upstream, how these manifest later in the run for us is questionable, I don't expect much of a shift over-all though

I see the 18z Op run is persistently trying to build that all important ridge to Scandinavia or to our north but it keeps getting toppled over and flattened and then has another go and fails. WHat is persistent in most models is the Hp to the SE of Greenland and a weak ridge over Iceland and a brief northerly at +144

So a slack brief northerly with cross-model agreement at 144?

Also the WEtterzerntrale ensembles are not updating tonight? anyone know why? - So had to use Brian's two chart.

GFS 0P run:

Para:

UKMO:

GEM:

ECM:

Still the possibility for some surprise snow fall on Saturday. If that low actually developes over the midlands as the gfs is showing and it has some heavy precipitation imbedded in it any high ground could see wet snow.
After that a cool NNW airflow for Sunday into Monday giving a few wintery showers then..........Spring!!!

yeh, unusual to see such a feature consistently appear on the charts from this far out.  things may change, but this presents an excellent opportunity for a significant amount of snow to some places.

Eyes focused on this for now.

Sunday looking more prone for snow in the south on the GFSP. This will change to the 6Z shortly but some lying snow showing up for central southern parts, Chilterns etc.

Not again on the edge again here arrrgggghhhhh!!!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/geos/runs/2019020500/geosnh-0-204.png?05-11 

6Z para shifts the main snow risk to the Midlands and Wales

Op run not really interested although does give a dusting to Wales and the north Midlands.

Sunday's snow risk is creeping up on the GEFS, though, with 25% of runs now showing snow for London:

Or in TWO snow row terms: