Next winter, I am going to completely ignore LRFs, "potential" and charts showing anything of interest after t+144.

This has been the most disappointing winter ever, not because it has been relentlessly mild, or that it has been snowless (as it has been IMBY), but because so much was promised and so little materialised. Just makes me extremely cynical about the money wasted on models - beyond a week ahead, the models are no more accurate than making predictions based on folklore.

All I'll say here just now is that there is still enough variance among some runs wrt devlopments after this week to suggest that what takes place weatherwise during the rest of February may not be the forgone conclusion that some members during last week were so adamant it would be.

Let's see what the runs during the rest of today and then the rest of this week bring us before we become sure of anything.

It’s disappointing to have a dangling carrot snatched away when you’ve chased it, so the safest bet is not to chase it!  Ignoring something you really want isn’t easy but experience should tell us that LRF’s are not reliable and snow is notoriously difficult to forecast in the UK, so we’re doubly unblessed!  

Personally I think the models and forecasts have done reasonably well in a difficult situation.  We got the cold spell and some got snow! 

True Caz, but the LRFs have been completely useless this season - HLB was promised for weeks and it never materialised. The MetO even advised the Government to take steps to prepare for a "brutal February"

The EC46 has also been completely useless I should add.

There is a lot of egg on a lot of faces this season and it appears to have gone as badly as that notorious "BBQ summer" of fokelore.

If you ask me, all the models have struggled this winter when it has come to work out what happens more than a few days ahead. If ever there was a season which has clearly demonstrated just how difficult medium to long-range forecasting in the UK is, it has been this current winter. Far off FI is always unreliable at the best of times as everyone well knows, but this winter it seems to have been especially so.

I saw someone comment in the media thread over the weekend that of all they seasonal forecasts for this winter that were available, the one by Terry Scholey has been the only one that thus far has been near the mark.

True, and IIRC it was the same MetO that predicted in late 2009 that the 09/10 winter would be milder and wetter than average. It turned out, if I'm not mistaken, to be the coldest winter overall since 78/79.

I've lost all enthusiasm for this winter now.

I know Feb & March can deliver, but the best time for prolonged lying snow is late Dec and through Jan into early Feb.

Me too and it's always the case the December/Jan - early or 1st part of winter is mild and we always 9/10 get the cold late winter or even spring! Typical.

All I CAN say is thank goodness for that spell of sleet and snow last Thursday and Friday without the block or at HLB! It never lasted long but nice to see snow in lowland southern England.- Last time lowland south western England saw accumulating snow and in a winter month of January was back in January 2013. - since then all of the snow and cold (if any) has always been during Feb or March.

Yes. It keeps showing mild & snowless conditions.

I don't find that a problem, since it means we can find a different hobby from fruitlessly chasing cold and snow which never arrives.

What I find hateful is when it gets our hopes up, but the goodies never arrive. This winter, the stellar output at Day 10 has been sumptuous in its glory, but it always stayed at Day 10, a massive carrot at the end of an infinite stick which we followed like donkeys for weeks on end. Back in December, we were told to expect blocking and cold by mid-Jan, then by end of Jan, then by early Feb, then by mid-Feb - now that is not going to happen either. You know how the sodding UK winter goes - we will get heavy snow and frost at the end of March and my wife will be in tears as all her spring plants are once again ruined.

It's even more frustrating when you see the long term mean at this time of year for the 850's is -3C. It doesn't seem to be a lot to ask to get below -6C !

Sounds like it's functioning perfectly! 

I do note however that the GEFS graphs have taken on that scattershot look that often indicates a pattern change on the horizon. I have a feeling that the silly season may not be over yet, and the next cold spell chase will be starting soon...

Yes - looks like the chimp in your avatar has been busy again. It's not over 'till it's over.

I can’t read models but I read this thread regularly and rely on you clever people to post what you see.  I know those who only see what they want to and those who hang on one run as if it’s a given, but even if several runs, or all models show the same outcome, I still accept they can be wrong.  I don’t assume they’ll verify - to ASSUME = makes an ASS out of U and ME!  Your ref to donkeys!  

Tell your wife to protect her plants well until May and not to plant anything tender until then!  Yes, I know how the sodding UK winter goes! It will snow around 18th Feb when I’m flying off on holiday!  It usually does!  I won’t be going anywhere in May, so the plants will be safe!  

Those of us model watching through 09/10 should all know what we need to be seeing evolve out of F! into reliable time frames with no 'outliers' slipping into that progression.

We have seen a lot of 09/10 type charts out in FI but straight away they are gone the next day. I do not remember that type of flip flopping at all over 09/10?

The first 'flip flip' of a chart this winter has seen me write off that potential ( and not tell the mrs to prepare for the white stuff) and I have not been proved far wrong ( as M.M. points out about the 'cold' being pushed back and back?).

Why worry her needlessly when you know by the time it is 3 days out it will be a marginal event at best?

Even the land has no 'deep cold' in it so 'melt off' takes snows that would have settled in past years ( as my thawed pond will attest to!)

Anyway , back to looking for eye candy in FI ( and keeping it from the Mrs!).

It’s all very tentative though and not much to keep me skegging yet.

Somehow this winter seeing an azores high build in from the S West seems the more likely outcome of any run?

I think the strat split in December has now well run its course and the resulting polar night Jet will just wallow around until final warming?

If the polar night jet's 'wallowing' puts it southward edges too far south then the rising sun ( and its returning UV) might mess with the ozone leaving it patchy in places if we were to see a settled , HP dominated, entrance into spring (and so sunny weathers?)

With most of the cold impacted U.S. seeing a 'faux spring' right now the last of their cold air has entered the Atlantic (off the E.seaboard) so that is now the end of any cyclogenisis its appearance over the warmed waters brought...... and a return back to the 'unforced' pattern we seem to keep returning back to ( HP never very far from our SW if not growing over the top of us blocking our any Atlantic lows or transmuting them into drizzle/cloud?)

I just logged on to see you have commented in this thread hoping you posted some eye candy FI or super easterly but you commented on the lack of comments and discussions !?

Some really warm uppers P3 show +12 @850hpa that's temps between 12 and 15c at midnight: 300z:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP03EU12_300_1.png

p17:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP17EU12_300_1.png

p2:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP02EU12_300_1.png

Some magnificent (very milder) if not summer like charts showing up on this evenings ensembles! 

I do wonder if we could see a very mild February? - Certainly little if any sign of cold that's for sure.

GFS 12z doesn't look that great even in deepest FI, from what I can see.