If you’ve seen it before why did you start watching it? 😉

One chart territory now - the GEFS line. Tells me all I need to know and stops me skegging.

Cripes it's like somebody has applied the emergency brake in here.

Thats because wet,windy and mild are our norm and not that interesting.....

We're still very much in "cold hunt" season, so that means that:

a) the models are rubbish for cold away from the mountains (which they are) and

b) lots of people have had snow, so their interest will have waned somewhat (especially given the above)

When GEFS and EPS are both showing mild or very mild conditions for London, you know this thread'll be quiet!

Mild , wet and windy spells to come for some time if today’s output is to be believed. Let’s hope FI is wrong like it has been all winter.

Yes I think some people have a blind faith in weather modelling.  If nothing else this winter has exposed the potentially dangerously misleading nature of many LRFs. Plenty of forecasts   for 2 days ahead have also proved extremely poor.

Martin

not everyone on here is obsessed with cold, mild is fine by me, in particular if it’s dry.  Not bad output this morning.

Some of us have been looking at this stuff long enough  to  know the asymmetric nature of  model watching outside of the reliable range .   The law of averages is towards mild, and  the layman  notion  is that the  chances of this is augmented somewhat if the models can't even throw up  cold solutions outside of that range.

Maybe  a dubious analysis  but I think most of us suffer from it  to a certain extent

This says it all.  Not a snow risk in the entire ensemble set in what is effectively the middle of winter!!

lack of them...Even the para has lost its mojo

Yesterday the Para showed the jet diving south deep into FI, and so it does this morning, but the difference is just how far north it got before hand, but I'D say simply that there's a possible emerging trend for blocking and jet splitting around Feb 18th 

Being a confirmed straw clutcher - love spring, but love a proper winter first...

I feel we also need to make the most of this Maunder Minimum few winters... Because of G.W. 

Enjoyed yesterday's morning heavy snow shower here in Norfolk. Spectacular for an hour...

Surely that is good sign for cold because models at long range have been completely wrong all along?

Maybe it's just me, but while it looks as though we are now about to have a spell of atlantic-dominated weather, what is being suggested by both the GFS and ECM 00z op runs in the semi-reliable timeframe (which I consider to be within the 10 day timeframe) doesn't scream exceptional mildness to me. There are suggestions from GFS, as there have been at other times in recent days, of HP trying to build to the SE and then possibly push northwards. However this is shown to me more than 10 days ahead and how often this winter has what has been indicated in charts at that range actually verified?

The mild solutions are more likely to be correct 😎

Given that the Nirvana-land charts we have been seeing a times this winter for more than 10 days out have not come to pass, maybe the fact there is now a lack of them in deep FI may be no bad thing.

It took the models long enough last February to come round to a consensus about developments at the end of that month; some GFS and ECM op runs last Feb were showing the atlantic coming back into play instead of bringing in the Beast.

I agree it doesn't look that mild but its too mild to snow so whats the point. I'd rather have record breakingly mild than average.

Unfortunately I don’t think that looks like being the case for many northern parts where it will be much milder than recently but not really much above average. With apologies to winter weather fans I feel the best i.e. most usable weather, will be for the SErn quadrant. Western parts could be very wet at times in the more mobile conditions.

If we have record-breaking mild weather at this time of year, we'll pay for it in the summer. 1998 for example was proof of that.

But we know from years of model watching that when in a zonal pattern the extent of NWP reliability increases  to around day 9/10 in terms of pattern if not day to day conditions on the ground.

Excellent point, I rely on rainfall timing forecasts for work & play & even within 12 hours they can be 3-4 hrs out! I may be wrong but doesn't the accuracy of a weather forecast drop off after 48 hrs?

Is this the face of the coming week’s weather? 

Well in these global warming times I think we can get record breaking warmth month after month.

I still think we could see significant cold at sometime between mid February and mid March but outlook is poor at the moment no escaping that.