Been there and done that.

But its a cold outlier. The consensus still  for the block to stay out of reach

Will it vanish like a fart in a hurricane this evening?

Place your bets!...

Good luck! My son arrived on one of the hottest days of summer 2017 - and 11 weeks early 

Ah yes, February 1998 I do recall sitting eating lunch outside Kings College in Aberdeen in a t shirt under clear blue skies and by the beginning of the following week trudging through foot deep snow. 

Ties in with what Tim posted in the short term thread from Euro 4. Fingers crossed

Entire 06z suite shifted to mild and wet! Oh dear

Yes, combined with the latest Met long-ranger it really does look like whatever arrives tonight will be winter's last gasp. After the weekend we wave goodbye to even sub -5C 850s, barring a few rogue cooler runs.

Not a cold outlier - just amongst the colder options.  An outlier implies no support.  Two distinct clusters still - one suggesting slightly mild and trending milder and the other staying resolutely cold, and still a few runs with ice days.  Another of those occasions where the ensemble mean isn't helpful.  

Given the turbulence in the model output it would be premature IMO to conclude that there'll be no more cold weather in the next 4-6 weeks.

Hi Peter

This is exactly the point I have been trying to get across to a few members here who have been adamant in recent days that it's game over for cold in February, to no avail it would appear.

This is not settled yet one way or the other, it would seem today.

To pick up further in the points made above about the performance of ECM this winter, IIRC it was less keen a couple of weeks ago on the suggestion that GFS made at that time of an easterly spell commencing last week. From what I recall, ECM kind of flirted with the idea but never bought into it in the way that GFS did for a time. Once ECM showed the atlantic moving back in last week, GFS continued with the easterly for a time but then dropped it too.

Quite possibly. What I am wondering myself is whether what is happening across the pond at the moment might be in some way related to the recent SSW. No idea though tbh.

London snow row crashes to a new low of 38! I know the index has limitations but it's quite useful for seeing the trend towards a less cold / milder ensemble outlook.  

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/snowrow.aspx?location=London#London

Yes it looks like it is the SSW - just had an unequal pv split for us which is why it never guarantees cold here. The little pulses of energy have stopped the block to the east influencing us as much the idea behind the forecasts of cold were close but the warming didn’t quite give us the pattern needed. Still some hope on ECM but possibly gone and blenddd with GFS this evening leaving UK in no mans land

The plunge of Arctic air into the mid-west has forced the jetstream to dip a long way south over North America. It then races on a NE trajectory into the Atlantic.  How that energy will behave isn't completely predictable, as far as I understand it.

Whilst there is still a month of winter to go it looks like after this short current cold snap the next chance isn't likely till the last two weeks of February making this another mild winter overall.

Mild and zonal, one would guess?

Hope that is the reason for the sudden flip on the GFS 06z, but METO long range also agrees so its probably goodnight Vienna 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html