Model Output Discussion 30/01/19 11:34 >>>>· Page 3

ballamar
Advanced Member

31 January 2019 06:55:18

#51

Thanks ECM just when I thought I could go back to life as normal you come up with the best Scandinavia high

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

31 January 2019 06:56:13

#52

Indeed the ECM has seen the easterly light! stunning run.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

Snow Hoper
Advanced Member

31 January 2019 07:00:11

#53

Fascinating ECM this morning - a waft of -10 850s clip the far SE on Friday, then a textbook Scandi High blows up.

Here's hoping that's repeated on the evening output!

(I'm reminded, incidentally, of the way the ECM had a spate of serving up some mild op runs of late - not much support in its ensembles, but it was in effect picking up on the change to markedly less-cold conditions next week.)

Originally Posted by: Retron

Was always going to happen once the forecast changed.

Even colder air primed at 240.

The Paras worth a look too.

Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.

Home : Mid Suffolk.

48m Asl

Arcus
Advanced Member

31 January 2019 07:03:50

#54

Indeed the ECM has seen the easterly light! stunning run.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman

ICON (unsurprisingly) similar to ECM in building the Scandi. Interesting trends.

Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

JACKO4EVER
Guest

31 January 2019 07:04:51

#55

Ahaha more ECM jam tomorrow, if it’s still there on later runs then I will raise an eyebrow. Still, looking quite blocked and we just need a bit of luck,,,,, though with our climate it may take divine intervention too.

marco 79
Advanced Member

31 January 2019 07:19:34

#56

Meanwhile GEFS mean rises above the average from the 4th....here we go again...even though the winter has been uninspiring....model watching has been rather extreme...

Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL

Hippydave
Advanced Member

31 January 2019 07:19:58

#57

Entertaining ECM run I see

GFS ens offer limited support for a scandi HP build from what I can see, maybe 4 runs or so members having a go albeit not as positive as the ECM attempt.

Further out in deep FI GFS has backed off the blocked scenario this morning and has HP held to our south as a majority, leaving us milder with more unsettled weather the further North you are. Given that's been flopping about for weeks now I'm not sure that's particularly significant though.

Wonder what the 12z will bring later today - any bets on ECM showing one of the milder solutions next?

Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: Tonbridge

moomin75
Advanced Member

31 January 2019 07:39:59

#58

About as much chance of that ECM verifying as there is of me riding Shergar to a live Elvis Presley gig on the surface of Mars.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

JACKO4EVER
Guest

31 January 2019 07:41:26

#59

About as much chance of that ECM verifying as there is of me riding Shergar to a live Elvis Presley gig on the surface of Mars.

Originally Posted by: moomin75

its a banker then 😃

doctormog
Advanced Member

31 January 2019 07:46:07

#60

About as much chance of that ECM verifying as there is of me riding Shergar to a live Elvis Presley gig on the surface of Mars.

Originally Posted by: moomin75

I guess you think the GFSP FI section is more probable?

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS)

roadrunnerajn
Advanced Member

31 January 2019 07:47:13

#61

About as much chance of that ECM verifying as there is of me riding Shergar to a live Elvis Presley gig on the surface of Mars.

Originally Posted by: moomin75

you forgot to mention also wearing a mankini....

Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic. 80m asl

Gooner
Advanced Member

31 January 2019 07:50:19

#62

Wouldn't that be funny

Well done MET , I knew you'd be right

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

moomin75
Advanced Member

31 January 2019 07:52:48

#63

I guess you think the GFSP FI section is more probable?

Originally Posted by: doctormog

Haven't seen it but probably yes.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Gooner
Advanced Member

31 January 2019 07:53:16

#64

ICON

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Gooner
Advanced Member

31 January 2019 07:54:25

#65

Haven't seen it but probably yes.

Originally Posted by: moomin75

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Maunder Minimum
Advanced Member

31 January 2019 08:05:43

#66

The latest ECM Op is following where GFS led the way. Not saying that either is correct, but it is yet another case of the ECM being slow on the uptake.

From what I have seen, ECM has been the worst performing model this winter, at least for our neck of the woods.

New world order coming.

Solar Cycles
Advanced Member

31 January 2019 08:51:07

#67

The latest ECM Op is following where GFS led the way. Not saying that either is correct, but it is yet another case of the ECM being slow on the uptake.

From what I have seen, ECM has been the worst performing model this winter, at least for our neck of the woods.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum

Agree, all the stats in the world doesn’t hide the fact that its been woeful for this winter. How ironic would it be now that the MetO have pulled the plug on a very cold Feb that the Easterly finally arrives in the first week of February.😁

Arbroath 1320
Advanced Member

31 January 2019 08:56:46

#68

Ahaha more ECM jam tomorrow, if it’s still there on later runs then I will raise an eyebrow. Still, looking quite blocked and we just need a bit of luck,,,,, though with our climate it may take divine intervention too.

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER

Indeed. If only we lived in the never, never land and virtual world of the models in FI this Winter, we could have been experiencing something truly memorable. Back to reality and there's continuing uncertainty after a likely milder spell next week. Anything could happen after that from raging zonality to a Scandi High, although the form horse will probably be something in between

Kenmore, Highland Perthshire, GGTTH

tallyho_83
Advanced Member

31 January 2019 08:58:25

#69

CAN ANYONE GET THE Ensemble graph to display On wetterzentrale?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=205&run=18&lid=ENS&bw=

Edited by user 31 January 2019 09:10:10 | Reason: Not specified

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Chiltern Blizzard
Advanced Member

31 January 2019 09:09:15

#70

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Roll that on to +384 and you have the makings of something that could surpass last year’s Beast from the East! Deep, deep cold to our north east apparently heading our way. However, far too far away to be anything more than entertainment (if that’s what we can call model watching!)

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl