The Weather Outlook

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DPower
30 January 2019 20:13:58

maybe not.... it is not going to be particularly mild next week just around average for February if everything verifies..... and further down into February I would not be a at all surprised if we have another proper cold spell. We are still in winter......

Originally Posted by: cultman1 

To be honest I am still waiting for the first proper cold spell of the winter. Max temps today (in my area anyway) of around 4c and a very slushy 1cm of mess would have been what we used to call rather cold weather for January back in the day.

A SSW that put the kibosh on half of the winter and then MAY not deliver sucks. Didn't mind the wait as long as it was going to deliver.

Hoping to see a few hours of snow tomorrow evening/overnight maybe giving a inch or two and perhaps another period in the afternoon. Track and intensity of snow still up for grabs and probably will be until the morning.

glenogle
30 January 2019 20:21:15

With brutal cold into the States it could be quite a task getting anything of real note to our shores.
In the meantime some quite low minima tonight I would have thought and snow for some on Thursday into Friday so all is not lost.

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

Not strictly model output, but anecdotally, we used to get snow/cold weather a fortnight after the US.  We'll see where we are in a couple weeks time then.  Valentine's snow is not unusual.

UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
Rob K
30 January 2019 20:37:26

Plenty of pace gathering now to indicate a much milder February than hoped for. This has been signalled at for a while at least with slim chances of the famed east winds lurking. Now that looks pretty much consigned to the end of the rainbow.
It’s been like chasing a lost cause for many all winter, you couldn’t even call it the one that got away as true cold never was within sight.
2m temps for London show a gradual rise throughout next month with little fluctuation... just dull, neither cold or mild - just where no one wants to be:
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png


It’s going to feel like a long boring wait til spring.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

I would argue it was almost within sight, two weeks ago today the models had just about all fallen into line for a prolonged cold spell from the east/northeast, starting within 120 hours. Then the Friday 12Z ECM flipped to a milder solution and that was that. 

 

That ECM mean chart posted above looks poor down the line with the dreaded “Berne pressure” on the up... south west zephyrs ahoy!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Whether Idle
30 January 2019 20:39:06

 

I would argue it was almost within sight, two weeks ago today the models had just about all fallen into line for a prolonged cold spell from the east/northeast, starting within 120 hours. Then the Friday 12Z ECM flipped to a milder solution and that was that. 

 

That ECM mean chart posted above looks poor down the line with the dreaded “Berne pressure” on the up... south west zephyrs ahoy!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Ahh.. The good old days of 2007, those Berne Winters

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Notty
30 January 2019 21:24:48

 

Ahh.. The good old days of 2007, those Berne Winters

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

dont forget Schnorbitz :)

Notty

Pontypool, 132m asl

moomin75
30 January 2019 22:10:18

 

Not strictly model output, but anecdotally, we used to get snow/cold weather a fortnight after the US.  We'll see where we are in a couple weeks time then.  Valentine's snow is not unusual.

Originally Posted by: glenogle 

That's just not correct. More a myth than a reality.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

moomin75
30 January 2019 22:48:17

18z bringing an early taste of spring to much of England post 240hrs tonight. That coupled with a milder and unsettled week next week takes us to mid February. Spring is drawing nearer this evening. Bring it on.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

glenogle
30 January 2019 22:56:53

That's just not correct. More a myth than a reality.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

I guess we'll see in around a fortnight 

UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
David M Porter
30 January 2019 22:58:48

18z bringing an early taste of spring to much of England post 240hrs tonight. That coupled with a milder and unsettled week next week takes us to mid February. Spring is drawing nearer this evening. Bring it on.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

No freeze of course, but this doesn't exactly suggest spring-like mildness to me a short time later:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=18&time=372&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

 

Nor does this chart, and look at what appears to be happening out east:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=18&time=384&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

Temps under that set-up would be average at best, I would have thought.

Yes, these two charts are deep FI and more than likely won't verfify as shown. However, what I am not seeing are December 2015-type charts which, with one or two exceptions, continually suggested very mild and wet weather from the end of the previous month. The model output of recent times has been nowhere near as consistent as it was in late 2015.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

moomin75
30 January 2019 23:09:37

 

No freeze of course, but this doesn't exactly suggest spring-like mildness to me a short time later:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=18&time=372&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

 

Nor does this chart, and look at what appears to be happening out east:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=18&time=384&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

Temps under that set-up would be average at best, I would have thought.

Yes, these two charts are deep FI and more than likely won't verfify as shown. However, what I am not seeing are December 2015-type charts which, with one or two exceptions, continually suggested very mild and wet weather from the end of the previous month. The model output of recent times has been nowhere near as consistent as it was in late 2015.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Temps of 11-13c in the south will feel very springlike David. That is what the 18z shows in parts of central southern England post 240hrs.

It will no doubt change again tomorrow but shows what is possible.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

ballamar
30 January 2019 23:13:31

Temps of 11-13c in the south will feel very springlike David. That is what the 18z shows in parts of central southern England post 240hrs.

It will no doubt change again tomorrow but shows what is possible.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

 

the charts posted would be cold with potential ice days though not 11-13

moomin75
30 January 2019 23:14:39

 

 

the charts posted would be cold with potential ice days though not 11-13

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Have a look at the temperatures predicted on the TWO chart viewer. 264 to 288 hrs is 11 to 13c. 11c right up to central southern Scotland.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

LeedsLad123
30 January 2019 23:16:11

Have a look at the temperatures predicted on the TWO chart viewer. 264 hrs is 11 to 13c. 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Sounds nice. Can we get a February 1998 repeat this year? 

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
moomin75
30 January 2019 23:17:49

 

Sounds nice. Can we get a February 1998 repeat this year? 

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

Hopefully 🤞🤞🤞. The temperatures shown are perfectly feasible as the sun strengthens. Certainly no ice days if 18z verified.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

David M Porter
30 January 2019 23:18:27

Temps of 11-13c in the south will feel very springlike David. That is what the 18z shows in parts of central southern England post 240hrs.

It will no doubt change again tomorrow but shows what is possible.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

True. Saying that though, what GFS 18z suggests to my eyes that it would likely be merely a brief notably milder interlude, rather akin to the one that we had last Friday & Saturday. With a HP right over the UK as is shown at the end of the GFS run, I would imagine that temperatures under that set-up would probably be fairly average for the time of year for much of the country.

What far-off FI also seems to be suggesting in both the GFS 12z and 18z ops is that the low heights currently over Greenland and Eastern Canada and North-East USA may start to become less intense as we go through February. This then helps HP to migrate northwards towards Greenland as is shown in deep FI on the 12z.

Obviously it is way too far out to be taken at all seriously. However, if things were to pan out as the 12z GFS showed, then all bets would be off.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

David M Porter
30 January 2019 23:19:57

 

Sounds nice. Can we get a February 1998 repeat this year? 

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

Just as long as we don't get a summer like 1998! That was one of the most god-awful summers I have lived through and was as bad as anything in the period from 2007 up to and including 2017 threw at us at that time of the year.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

ballamar
30 January 2019 23:22:05

Have a look at the temperatures predicted on the TWO chart viewer. 264 to 288 hrs is 11 to 13c. 11c right up to central southern Scotland.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

yes they are sorry was talking about the FI chartsat theeb of the run

Weathermac
30 January 2019 23:24:31

Have a look at the temperatures predicted on the TWO chart viewer. 264 to 288 hrs is 11 to 13c. 11c right up to central southern Scotland.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

cherry picking charts post 240 hrs is a bit risky given the model accuracy of late .

moomin75
30 January 2019 23:24:44

 

yes they are sorry was talking about the FI chartsat theeb of the run

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Yeh the very far end is cooler again. They won't verify but shows what is possible. We have to factor in the stronger sun. By mid February even though still winter, the sun is much more powerful....Low to mid teens very feasible as was proven in 1998.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

LeedsLad123
30 January 2019 23:29:54

Yeh the very far end is cooler again. They won't verify but shows what is possible. We have to factor in the stronger sun. By mid February even though still winter, the sun is much more powerful....Low to mid teens very feasible as was proven in 1998.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Even high teens as it reached 17.5C in Leeds in Feb ‘98.

 

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
fairweather
30 January 2019 23:40:05

 

 

Obviously it is way too far out to be taken at all seriously. However, if things were to pan out as the 12z GFS showed, then all bets would be off.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Again! If I had a pound ..............   

S.Essex, 42m ASL
tallyho_83
31 January 2019 00:18:50

 

yes they are sorry was talking about the FI chartsat theeb of the run

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

I wonder if they are over cooking the temps a little?

Just looking at temps over in the USA - looks like mid western states going from record breaking cold to record breaking warmth within 5 days!?

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

tallyho_83
31 January 2019 00:36:32
Can anyone get the ensemble graph to work on wetterzentrale.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&lid=ENS&h=0 

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

David M Porter
31 January 2019 00:38:30

 

Even high teens as it reached 17.5C in Leeds in Feb ‘98.

 

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

For all it was so exceptionally mild in mid-Feb 1998, it is worth remembering how that month ended.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Retron
31 January 2019 06:52:50
Fascinating ECM this morning - a waft of -10 850s clip the far SE on Friday, then a textbook Scandi High blows up.

Here's hoping that's repeated on the evening output!

(I'm reminded, incidentally, of the way the ECM had a spate of serving up some mild op runs of late - not much support in its ensembles, but it was in effect picking up on the change to markedly less-cold conditions next week.)

Leysdown, north Kent

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