Next week's prospects remain uncertain. Most of the data points towards milder conditions but the GFS 06z brings in a cold easterly.

Unfortunately a bit of an outlier. The GFS P develops a SH in FI and creates a battleground with us on the wrong side. It does make inroads later on, but too far out, and just another option on the table.

After watching Gav's excellent video and now with the GFS 06Z - right now it all appears quite straightforward:

Positive vs Negatvive NAO

Atlantic vs The Beast

ECM vs GFS

Could it be any clearer

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

Yep. With a significant backtrack from UK Met today, those that get it should enjoy tomorrow's snowfall - it looks like the last for quite a while........unless the Atlantic fails to push through next week.

GEM is super progressive and ECM not far off.

Nothing like cold Westerlies 

yes it looks like cool westerlies may well be the order of the day interspersed with the odd colder day here and there.

It will be very interesting to see the GLOSEA output for Spring as it seems to have been somewhat behind the ball this winter so far. Not being a fan of the model I haven’t taken much notice of it, but with the inevitable back track by MetO in the extended outlook today it’s peaked my interest 

Not for the first time, GFS teases us with something interesting right at the end of FI.

Looks like the GEM is leading the way from the 12s. 

Scandi High - but GEM manages to deliver a Creasterly from it.

Yep. We should be salivating about a 1040 high in a near perfect position in Western Scandi! 

Alas the jet pumps up the high and this combined with the US Eastern seaboard lows tracking unchecked by the lack of any Greenie high eventually smash the block.

In the meantime average temps for most of the UK.

Same old story - CONUS gets all the fun and destroys any chances on this side of the Pond.

We need a mild USA for the UK to get cold. Very rare for both USA and Europe to be in the freezer at the same time.

In the meantime some quite low minima tonight I would have thought and snow for some on Thursday into Friday so all is not lost.

Maybe something a bit more typical for a UK winter next week with an alternating pattern between some cooler and milder days

12z ECM

...in the Midwest of the USA and eastern Siberia..

An unsettled picture from UKMO extended with plenty of precipitation about

Hopefully it'll wake a few up on various forums and remind them that an SSW doesn't guarantee cold and snow for the UK ala Feb and March 18

Even by American standards the extreme fluctuation is temperature is insane parts of the Midwest go from -35c 850s to +12c in 3 days.

ECM day 10 mean looks blocked

It’s been like chasing a lost cause for many all winter, you couldn’t even call it the one that got away as true cold never was within sight.

2m temps for London show a gradual rise throughout next month with little fluctuation... just dull, neither cold or mild - just where no one wants to be:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png 

It’s going to feel like a long boring wait til spring.

And it doesn't look that mild to me either, although obviously somewhat milder than it is presently.

IMO, all we can say with anything approaching reasonable confidence right now is that next week looks like being a bit milder at least, although the exact details still need to be pinned down. Beyond that, who knows, but for me it would take a very brave person to nake a call either way as to what happens later in Feb when we will only be entering the start of that month this Friday.