Every day is crucial it seems!

Are they though? Can someone check this. For our part of the world and especially in the day 5+ range I'm pretty sure there is negligable difference between them.

Though the Met office may be based in Exeter, it’s forecasts aren’t so restricted... and for many, most even, today has been a cold or very cold day with ice days at some English stations and lying snow across parts of lowland southern England.

Para run a week today:

Temps barely above freezing mid afternoon:

The 18z Para chart: - Northerly/north easterly wind:

GFS mid afternoon a week today:

The 18z Op (pressure chart ): - South westerly wind:

Ice days or Ice day?

So you mean temps struggled to reach freezing all day?

PARA is probably the best run of the winter . ridiculously good run

Only seen the NH stats and Para was a couple of % better than the old Op at day 6 

I was going to ask which is more reliable GFS Op or the Para?

The fact is they are both so different tonight with the OP keeping cooler weather at best but maintaining zonality throughout from next Wednesday on wards where as the Para brings us frequent northerly blasts as the low pressure sinks southwards and the winds eventually backing into the east deep in FI!  

I asked Quantum about this similarly and the fact that it is usually the case the milder weather doesn't get downgraded - usually if one model goes mild they all follow 9/10 - similar to this failed easterly this weekend. So I guess we will see what the ECM shows tomorrow and Para shows and if the OP & ECM continues like it has done with tonight's run (continues it's zonal theme' and the Para flips back to follow the ECM or OP run etc then it would be game over really!? What do you think?

So it's the GFS Para run that's keeping our hopes alive for blocked weather!

PARA @ 300Z:

(Bitterly cold easterly) With -10c uppers in many parts.

Yes one to bank! But the law of sod will say that it will flip too and follow the OP and other tomorrow morning! It may not but the way our luck has been so far this winter it wouldn;t surprise me at all.

Been a disappointing evening of model watching! At least the para keeps out hopes alive!

Night all.

18z ensembles for London! Nice new chart they have now - love this graph it's much clearer too!

You can see - similar to the 12z ensembles that the Op run is flipping from mild to cold to, to mild esp after 29th - there is so much scatter!

Today was colder than would have been predicted from chart watching. Max of 1.5C. Looking forward the BBC were emphasizing what the charts are generally showing. Cold with rain and snow but definitely no Big Freeze or easterly. They of course can't see past a week or so with any real confidence at the moment but do seem to want to counter any "Big Freeze" media nonsense after a few cm of wet snow. We still will have month of true winter to go but it's looking like we will need something special then to get this winter from useless to average!

Hmm.

I can see that lazy NW Sneaker flow on Tuesday looks much like the Operational GFS, ECMWF models- So tomorrow the big Q is will we see the UK see the less cold side NW flow of the long fetch flattened by North Atlantic High!.

I am still thinking the less cold GFS and ECMWF may be closer to truth for next week- by Wednesday and Thursday Jan. 30th and 31st- Low Pressure push south from our North, with maybe another Low showing its hands tracking SE to NW N Atlantic by today’s 12z 168-192 predictions- it should bring wet and windy weather from our Central N Atlantic Sea, NE USA PV Low shall deepens to SW offGreenland and over Newfoundland then quickly push ESE en route UK- cross during Thursday Friday- 31st Jan to 1st February.  I look forward to tomorrow’s Model outputs.

Yesterday Jan. 23’s T144 UKMO for Tuesday January 29th was colder under a Low Pressure driven NW Flow over the UK, coltish at 500hPa level when compared to 12z GFS and ECMWF Model runs for same time lol.

Leytonstone High was 3 degrees C on Wednesday January 23rd.  And minimum was about -1 I believe, and it stayed at 2 degrees C for much of the January 23rd.  So it was the coldest day of this winter based on my memory of it.  Tonight it will be about -2 in Leytonstone, East London.

Yes as it's nearly always the case - that the milder outcome wins!

Can we get meaningful Atlantic blocking before this winter passes by?

So it looks like at least one model is following the meto outlook this morning.

The much touted Para has us in early spring late in its run.

I’m of course keeping the faith in the ‘signals’ but it’s been a long prayer session 😉

GEFS shows still showing below average temps for a good while. Main things to note:

1) It's not very cold

2) Recent updates have shown signs of the cold pattern crumbling, but it could revert 

Well I think a sigh of relief this morning after a big wobble last night we are back on track. Ukmo, GFS, and Para all good . Ecm still blows up the low but better than yesterday. In fact by day 9 ecm looking great.

Lots of potential. Always risky in the south. No prolonged severe cold.

It’s hard to pin down any detail at the moment. Inter run consistency at the moment is abysmal. Yes m, it’s showing a cold theme; but not much consistency.

The theme this morning is for more southerly tracking lows which is a positive. I thought the ECM last night was a sign of the trop forcing slowing down but it's changed tack again. The latter frames are subject to change depending on where the developeing system goes at days 7 and 8.

As Brian says a number of the GEFS are trending mild and  we saw a similar cluster from the ECM ensembles last night, which would suggest we may have had our window of opportunity with the Euro trough.

Perfectly seasonable output, and snowing as we speak hear in the South east 😊

I think that’s a very fair post of where we are at the moment. Just such a waste of the Euro trough- so difficult to get these beasts into position only to be scuppered by other upstream patterns. The ENS need watching, a milder cluster should never be discounted in our climate. 

I wouldn’t disagree that the longer term outlook has become less clear but that has to be taken within the context of the extreme volatility in the model output currently.

ECM is indeed an encouraging run if you’re seeking sustained cold - but not very cold - and multiple opportunities for sleet and snow.  In marginal situations the exact evolution will make or break the chances of snow but as it stands things look interesting and we’re no longer in deepest FI.

Then, we have the ECM 00z op run which ends day 10 still very much on a cold note going forward. We will find out soon if that has support from the ensembles or just further muddies the already variable long term outlook this morning.

Meanwhile in Kent today's output is pretty cruddy, really - anything that falls is likely to be rain. Indeed, the "precip type" charts from the likes of GFS tend to flatter the situation in times like this, as they'll show a snow signal if as much as a flake of sleet falls in a given grid area.

If I lived up north I'd give a cautious welcome to today's output, although as more detailed charts show from the ECM, actual snow away from the mountains is hard to come by:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/significant-weather/20190129-2100z.html

(Unlike GFS and GEM, ECM has separate "sleet / snow / rain" precipitation fields).

It's typical "cold zonality", really. 850s are as ever marginal and although the potential for some dumpings of snow can't be ruled out, neither can a pretty uninspiring selection of rain showers and longer spells of rain. It'll probably end up with something like yesterday, where some areas will get some wet snow, while a few miles down the road it's just light rain.