Talking about the GFS medium term here. To the north of us there are a number of little features forecasted and each run seems to have a different outcome from one or two of these causing a different ending. Winds are backing more northerly than NW at times. The cold out to the NE became closer to us earlier on and probably resulted in the better outcome this time round.
All I would say, there are reams of data from our usual Atlantic influence, but much less from other directions.
Very interesting model watching coming up and how this plays out with many changes still expected. Certainly there seems to be a very unstable airstream heading our way from a northerly component which may deliver some surprises.

This might be the story of winter 18/19 - promised so much, delivered (again IMBY) so little.

This is not a WIO post by the way. I’ll take another look at the end of the week.

 In December the computer models were sending it to Scandinavia. In January to Greenland. Sadly it had a mind of its own and decided anything north of Coventry wasn't very appealing.

You are quite right and despite what some may be saying the split occurred in an ideal location for us. The recent model teases are down to the fact the models are struggling with the slow downward propagation of the -u winds into the troposphere. For the past two weeks or so the models have been over progressive with their timings and have had to back track.

What we are now biginning to see from the models could very well be the real deal and ties in with the latest NAM plots. If so we shoud see a stronger trend to northern blocking and southerly tracking lows and keep an eye on pressure building from the east and north east linking up to ridge building north in th Atlantic.

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Yeah, it looks very good on today's 00z GFS, UKMO, ECMWF and the ICON etc etc.

Roll on cold and wet and also cold and snowy predictions.

This coming Saturday evening, to Sunday (Jan. 26th and Jan. 27th) look very interesting with Cold NW and North winds across the UK.

Tuesday PM on Jan. 29th, more heavy rain turning to snow, and that brings us to Jan. 30th, with blustery wintry showers for much of the UK.

And maybe further windy and cold weather on Thursday the 31st with more Deep Low Pressure from our SW, cold air in charge across the UK, with a short interlude less cold on Wednesday night I think.

Even on the Monday- North and NW winds, with more chance of wintry showers for many, especially further North and in the SE and NE parts, and NW areas too.

This is very good upgrade from ECMWF and UKMO, and GFS is and ICON is backing them up.

But from T192, circa Tuesday to Wednesday this needs further discussion and analysis updates, the ICON for after 180 needs further discussion, as the Newfoundland Low seems very big in NW Atlantic at 192hrs, Jan. 30th.

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Interesting how that milder air toppler doesnt seem so strong as it did the other day.... the faintest hint that an easterly might try and sneak in.

its amazing how close that comes to developing into a scandi hi.  All the pieces are there... it just needs the right isobars to join hands.  Potentially very very interesting

Greenland high about to kick off

The Azores and Greeny highs are really trying their hardest to link up, but that jet stream ribbon refuses to be cut that easily.

That must be a locality based thing John as, if anything, the 06z GEFS suite here was colder than previous runs. At very worst as cold with decent agreement.

For the benefit of White Meadows this is just fact not interpretation.

The NH profile in general I think has been improving over the last couple of runs. Although maybe that's just my take on things. 

This one is custom designed for us Hampshire folk, Neil!

I'll believe it when I see it!

Is there going to be both Cyclonic and also NW winds, for the next 8 days.  There is not much interest in 12z UKMO, as NW flows and direct Low Pressure brings more rain rather than snow.

All eyes on what may happen on the Wednesday 30th and beyond.

When is this not so wintry but modern winter 6-8 degrees C going to give way to anything better.

Not much frost to expect and not much snow, for the Southern half of the UK.

Got to agree Doc, if anything the bump flattened out somewhat.

The Wind Reversal versus Zonality, 12z GFS and the UKMO do look like being in good agreement, but we need to see more cold air at today’s 192-216-240 range- UKMO 144 is good GFS 144 and ICON 144 is good as well.

It needs further analysis, another 7 days breathtaking hope casting.

Let’s see what they show us as we get to Tuesday and Wednesday next week.  12z GFS and the ICON- UKMO are supporting it’s take on it.  Colder from our North as gradually slowly it could turn colder.

No, that's not correct Brian. There are four sets of data per day in the ensemble chart.

Four per day multiplied by 16 days multiplied by 23 separate model runs.

The GEM offers an interesting possibility with the scandi high exerting alot more influence.

No easterly yet but if the models pick up on this idea we might see more easterly scenarios subsequently.

The current situation looks cold but atlantic dominated which is pretty good for the north west which will likely see heavy snow at times. The south and east rarely do well in a north westerly setup though.

If it wasn't for the phantom easterly last week I'd say the current output is really very good in the sceme of things.

See below for Previous discussion, which is pertinent

Agreed, quick look at t850s of the GEFS for East Kilbride and London show the 12z to be a little colder for 27-28 Jan.

How can some coldies  think that the current NWP is not good?

No. There are four sets of data per day but only one set for each ensemble, added up from each of the 23 perturbations. Each one that says it will snow scores 1 I believe. Therefore maximum is 23x16 = 368 surely? The maximum for a day would be x4 again but that wouldn't mean anything.